Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
AIA’s 1H25 VONB growth was in line with our expectation, mainly driven by solid growth in Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore. Although AIA China still reported negative VONB growth due to assumption changes, margin expansion and strong growth targets in new regions will restore investor confidence in its growth story. In addition, OPAT growth was a solid beat, supported by higher CSM release and improved operating variances. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$91.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s yoy PV and PEV sales growth returned to positive territory (at +6.2%/+13.5%) in the 33rd week of 2025, as OEMs cut prices again. Geely’s insurance registrations spiked 21% wow during the week, beating our expectation, driven by the blockbuster new model Galaxy A7. However, BYD, Tesla China and Li Auto still posted a yoy sales decline during the week, albeit a wow rebound. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results AAC Technologi...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: YOY PV sales growth turns positive on price cuts. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$43.72/Target: HK$57.70): 1H25: Margins miss due to transition period; meaningful recovery in 2H25. Maintain BUY. AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$73.45/Target: HK$91.00): 1H25: In-line VONB growth; strong OPAT beat. EVE Energy (300014 HK/HOLD/ Rmb48.07/Target: Rmb50.00): 2Q25: Earnings miss due to lowe...
We expect AIA to report a 16% yoy growth in VONB in 1H25, driven by strong volume growth in China and Hong Kong as well as margin expansion. We also expect its OPAT per share to grow 10% yoy, largely in line with the company’s target. We do not foresee any additional buyback in 2025 after the conclusion of the existing US$1.6b buyback. However, more clarity on its 2026 shareholder return guidance could be a key catalyst for further re-rating. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$91.00.
GREATER CHINA Results BeOne Medicines (6160 HK/BUY/HK$182.70/Target: HK$240.00): 2Q25: Results beat; expects revenue and margins to expand further. Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK/SELL/HK$10.85/Target: HK$10.23): 1H25: Results broadly in line. Cargo facing higher uncertainties in 2H25. Downgraded to SELL. Update AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$73.55/Target: HK$91.00): 1H25 results preview: Solid VONB and earnings growth. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$54.00/Target: HK$69.20): 2Q25 results preview: Expect ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results BeOne Medicines (6160 HK/BUY/HK$182.70/Target: HK$240.00) BeOne Medicines’ 1H25 revenue surged by 44.7% yoy to US$2.4b and adjusted net earnings amounted to US$389m, beating consensus estimates. Management raised revenue and gross margin guidance in 2025. We believe BRUKINSA's strong sales outlook and improving operational efficiency bode well for robust earnings and free cash flow expansion. Its R&D efforts will also support sustainable long-term growth through new prod...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June: Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For Positive US Trade Deals: Our Jun 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Jul 25 picks: Coraza, Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari and MYEG. SINGAP...
China regulators have introduced several measures, allowing insurers to further raise their equity investment allocations. We estimate that insurers could reallocate Rmb900b to equities, supported by these regulatory tailwinds. However, insurers are likely to remain cautious due to earnings volatility and solvency headwinds from a declining long-term yield. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top picks: Prudential and PICC P&C.
GREATER CHINA Sector Insurance Weighing the risks and returns. Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$65.15/Target: HK$100.00) Takeaways from 2025 Investor Day. Maintain BUY. INDONESIA Strategy Challenging Macro Environment Adds To Case For Rate Cut Our top picks are BBCA, BBRI, ANTM, AMRT, ICBP, CMRY and ERAA. MALAYSIA Sector Automobile ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: June Conviction Calls: Add Prudential and Sino Biopharm to our BUY list. Take profit on SHKP and Trip.com. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In May: Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Raising Emphasis On Infrastructure Plays: Our May 25 Alpha Picks outperformed with resounding success. June 25 picks: Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, MYEG, Northeast Group. SINGAPORE S...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls: Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25: Remove ICBP, EXCL and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Capitalising On Sentiment Turnaround: Our Apr 25 Alpha Picks underperformed. May 25 picks: Duopharma, Gamuda, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME dotCom, MYEG, Nationgate, Northeast Group and RHB Bank. SINGAPO...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Add CR Beer, Desay, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp to our BUY list. Take profit on AIA, Hansoh Pharma, JD and Zijin Mining. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25: Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Pockets of Opportunities: Our Mar 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Apr 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Duopharma, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME...
AIA’s VONB grew 17% yoy in 2024, slightly below our and market expectations, mainly due to economic assumption changes in China amid falling rates. OPAT per share increased 12% yoy, ahead of management’s three-year growth target. DPS jumped 8.8% yoy with a new US$1.6b buyback programme, translating into a decent 6% yield. We believe its current valuation of 1.1x 2025F P/EV (-2.0SD) does not fully capture its improving fundamentals. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$93.00.
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Credit demand remains subdued. Sector Update Consumer: The State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption. Initiate Coverage Waterdrop Inc (WDH US/BUY/US$1.50/Target: US$2.20): From crowdfunding to insurtech leadership with differentiated business model. Results AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$61.25/Target: HK$93.00): 2024: VONB slightly below expectations; new US$1.6b buyback programme. Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb26...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply February's M1 growth slowed to 0.1% yoy (-0.3ppt), missing consensus’ 1.0%, due to the Chinese New Year effect. M2 remained steady at 7.0% yoy, but new bank loans fell to Rmb1.01t compared with Jan 25’s Rmb5.13t, while new TSF fell to Rmb2.23t, both below forecasts. Thus, outstanding bank loans growth edged lower to 7.3% yoy. Nevertheless, outstanding TSF growth rose to 8.2% yoy due to increased government bond issuance. Weak domestic demand remains a key ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: Add Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Desay, JD Logistics, Mengniu, Plover Bay and Tencent. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25: Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Unprecedented Combo Of Disappointments: Our Feb 25 Alpha Picks sorely underperformed. Mar 25 picks: 99SpeedMart, Alpha IVF, KPJ Healthcare, MrDIY, MYEG, RHB Ba...
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 13.4% mom and 11.5% mom respectively in February, riding the wave of optimism on China’s tech sector. Sino-US tensions look set to rise in March, as higher tariffs take effect and should lead to greater market volatility. Hence, we will be quick to take profit and will only add names with less demanding valuations. New additions to our BUY list are Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining.
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