AIA’s 2025 VONB growth of 17% yoy was slightly below our expectation due to lower-than-expected sales growth in Mainland China and Thailand. That said, management noted the strong ytd VONB momentum in the Mainland China and Hong Kong markets. AIA announced a total share buyback of US$1.7b, implying a shareholder return yield of 4% for 2025. AIA also disclosed its US$3.3b private credit exposure (2% of total non-par and surplus assets) to ease market concerns. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$109.0...
Top Stories Company Results | AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$34.30/Target: HK$41.00) AAC's 2H25 earnings registered a solid 8.7%/4.1% beat vs our/consensus estimates on better opex control and lower finance costs. Management remained optimistic on its diversified business, guiding steady margin improvements and revenue growth of mid-teens or above for most segments in 2026. Maintain BUY and keep target price at HK$41.00. Company Results | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$82.80/Target: HK$109.00) AI...
Greater China Company Results | AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$34.30/Target: HK$41.00) AAC's 2H25 earnings registered a solid 8.7%/4.1% beat vs our/consensus estimates on the back of better opex control and lower finance costs. Management remained optimistic on its diversified business, guiding for steady margin improvements and revenue growth of mid-teens or above for most segments in 2026. Maintain BUY and keep target price at HK$41.00. Company Results | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$82.80...
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile As of mid-Feb 26, over 20 Chinese provinces and cities have announced 2026 vehicle purchase subsidy schemes, aligning with the national policy that has shifted to percentage-based subsidies (favouring mid-range to high-end vehicles) from 2025’s fixed amounts. This supports premium segments and market stability but may not fully counter the new 5% EV tax. 2026 sales forecasts: PV ‒ 30.4m units (+3% yoy); PEV ‒ 18.2m units (+19% yoy). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. ...
Despite some pullback in Hong Kong and Thailand, we still expect AIA to deliver a 16% VONB growth in 4Q25, bringing full-year VONB growth to 19%. EV per share is projected to grow 13%, thanks to a solid VONB contribution and favourable macro tailwinds. We also foresee OPAT per share rising 12% yoy, on track to achieve management’s growth target. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$109.00 following the positive revision of our VONB and EV forecasts.
Top Stories Strategy | Small/Mid Cap Monthly ‒ 2025 Results Preview We expect names under our coverage to report resilient earnings growth for 2025. For names with generous dividend payouts, we are eyeing the possibilities of special dividends for 2025 on the back of robust balance sheets and solid results: Crystal, Plover Bay, SHK& Co. We are also monitoring capex plans for Crystal and Kingboard Laminates. Our most preferred pick is Crystal, given its attractive valuation (10.2x 2026F PE, 6.4%...
Greater China Strategy | Small/Mid Cap Monthly ‒ 2025 Results Preview We expect names under our coverage to report resilient earnings growth for 2025. For names with generous dividend payouts, we are eyeing the possibilities of special dividends for 2025 on the back of robust balance sheets and solid results: Crystal, Plover Bay, SHK& Co. We are also monitoring capex plans for Crystal and Kingboard Laminates. Our most preferred pick is Crystal, given its attractive valuation (10.2x 2026F PE, 6.4...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware Amid the memory chip supercycle, our estimates show that low-end/mid-range/high-end phones will see a 16.7%/12.0%/9.3% increase in BOM cost in 2026, which will be absorbed by consumers, smartphone OEMs and component suppliers. The impact will spread unevenly across the industry, but high-end phones will be less affected than others; smartphone OEMs absorbing the bulk of the costs will make component suppliers better positioned, and Apple’s supply chain w...
AIA’s share price reacted positively to the strong VONB delivery in 3Q25. We estimate AIA China could deliver high teens VONB growth annually in 2025-30, underpinned by its ambitious target of 40% CAGR in VONB growth from new geographies. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s VONB momentum may ease in 4Q25 due to front-loaded demand but the underlying structural drivers of demand remain intact. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$102.00 as we roll over our valuation base to 2026.
Top Stories Sector Update | IT Hardware Amid the memory chip supercycle, our estimates show that low-end/mid-range/high-end phones will see a 16.7%/12.0%/9.3% increase in BOM cost in 2026, which will be absorbed by consumers, smartphone OEMs and component suppliers. The impact will spread unevenly across the industry, but high-end phones will be less affected than others; smartphone OEMs absorbing the bulk of the costs will make component suppliers better positioned, and Apple’s supply chain wi...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C and Sunny Optical to BUY; take profits on Meituan, OOIL and Ping A...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
AIA’s VONB grew strongly by 27% yoy in 3Q25, significantly above consensus expectation of 17% yoy, due to the sustained strong momentum in Hong Kong (+40% yoy) and a notable recovery in mainland China, where VONB rose 27% yoy despite assumption changes. ANP sales growth accelerated to 15% and VONB margin also improved 6.0ppt, due to a favourable shift in product mix in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$95.00. We foresee positive price action given the strong VONB beat.
Top Stories Company Update | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$75.45/Target: HK$95.00) AIA’s VONB grew strongly by 27% yoy in 3Q25, significantly above consensus expectation of 17% yoy, due to the sustained strong momentum in Hong Kong (+40% yoy) and a notable recovery in mainland China, where VONB rose 27% yoy despite assumption changes. ANP sales growth accelerated to 15% and VONB margin also improved 6.0ppt, due to a favourable shift in product mix in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price o...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
AIA’s 1H25 VONB growth was in line with our expectation, mainly driven by solid growth in Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore. Although AIA China still reported negative VONB growth due to assumption changes, margin expansion and strong growth targets in new regions will restore investor confidence in its growth story. In addition, OPAT growth was a solid beat, supported by higher CSM release and improved operating variances. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$91.00.
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