Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Market consolidation slowed in November as expectations of a 25bp Fed cut buoyed sentiment. The HSI and MSCI China fell 0.2% and 2.4% mom respectively amid weak data and limited catalysts. While the upcoming Economic Work Conference may offer a catalyst to end this phase, we remain cautious, preferring defensives and oversold names. We add BeOne Medicines, HKEX, NetEase and Plover Bay to BUY, take profit on AIA, and cut losses on Ja...
Greater China Sector Update | IT Hardware Amid the memory chip supercycle, our estimates show that low-end/mid-range/high-end phones will see a 16.7%/12.0%/9.3% increase in BOM cost in 2026, which will be absorbed by consumers, smartphone OEMs and component suppliers. The impact will spread unevenly across the industry, but high-end phones will be less affected than others; smartphone OEMs absorbing the bulk of the costs will make component suppliers better positioned, and Apple’s supply chain w...
AIA’s share price reacted positively to the strong VONB delivery in 3Q25. We estimate AIA China could deliver high teens VONB growth annually in 2025-30, underpinned by its ambitious target of 40% CAGR in VONB growth from new geographies. Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s VONB momentum may ease in 4Q25 due to front-loaded demand but the underlying structural drivers of demand remain intact. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$102.00 as we roll over our valuation base to 2026.
Top Stories Sector Update | IT Hardware Amid the memory chip supercycle, our estimates show that low-end/mid-range/high-end phones will see a 16.7%/12.0%/9.3% increase in BOM cost in 2026, which will be absorbed by consumers, smartphone OEMs and component suppliers. The impact will spread unevenly across the industry, but high-end phones will be less affected than others; smartphone OEMs absorbing the bulk of the costs will make component suppliers better positioned, and Apple’s supply chain wi...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C an...
HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&C and Sunny Optical to BUY; take profits on Meituan, OOIL and Ping A...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
AIA’s VONB grew strongly by 27% yoy in 3Q25, significantly above consensus expectation of 17% yoy, due to the sustained strong momentum in Hong Kong (+40% yoy) and a notable recovery in mainland China, where VONB rose 27% yoy despite assumption changes. ANP sales growth accelerated to 15% and VONB margin also improved 6.0ppt, due to a favourable shift in product mix in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$95.00. We foresee positive price action given the strong VONB beat.
Top Stories Company Update | AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$75.45/Target: HK$95.00) AIA’s VONB grew strongly by 27% yoy in 3Q25, significantly above consensus expectation of 17% yoy, due to the sustained strong momentum in Hong Kong (+40% yoy) and a notable recovery in mainland China, where VONB rose 27% yoy despite assumption changes. ANP sales growth accelerated to 15% and VONB margin also improved 6.0ppt, due to a favourable shift in product mix in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price o...
Greater China Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Oct 25 GGR was MOP$24.1b, increasing 32% mom and 16% yoy, and recovering to 91% of 2019’s level (vs a recovery of 83% in Sep 25). Oct 25’s GGR number beat market consensus by 4%, and set another post-COVID-19 record. For 10M25, GGR climbed to MOP$205.4b, up 8% yoy, and recovered to 83% of 2019’s level. Maintain OVERWEIGHT; Galaxy remains our top pick. Company Results | China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/HOLD/HK$48.64/Target: HK$51.00) CMB rep...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls The HSI and MSCI China gained 7.1%/8.2% mom in September on Fed easing and optimism over advancements in semiconductors and AI. We remain positive in the medium term but expect near-term consolidation after the recent strong gains. The best performer of the month was Alibaba (+53.0% mom). With some rotations expected in non-tech stocks, our October calls are: add Galaxy, Jacobson, Ping An, Trip.com and WuXi Bio to BUY; SELL Meituan. ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: September Conviction Calls: Add Anta, BYDE and CSCEC to our BUY list, Li Auto and OOIL to our SELL list. Take profit on Innovent, JD Logistics, Lenovo, Sino Biopharm, Tencent and TME. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In August: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, BBCA, BBNI, BRMS, MTEL, HRUM and NCKL. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Wake Me Up When September Ends: Our Aug 25 Alpha Picks underperformed marginally. Sep 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Hume ...
AIA’s 1H25 VONB growth was in line with our expectation, mainly driven by solid growth in Thailand, Hong Kong and Singapore. Although AIA China still reported negative VONB growth due to assumption changes, margin expansion and strong growth targets in new regions will restore investor confidence in its growth story. In addition, OPAT growth was a solid beat, supported by higher CSM release and improved operating variances. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$91.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s yoy PV and PEV sales growth returned to positive territory (at +6.2%/+13.5%) in the 33rd week of 2025, as OEMs cut prices again. Geely’s insurance registrations spiked 21% wow during the week, beating our expectation, driven by the blockbuster new model Galaxy A7. However, BYD, Tesla China and Li Auto still posted a yoy sales decline during the week, albeit a wow rebound. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results AAC Technologi...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: YOY PV sales growth turns positive on price cuts. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely and Tuopu. Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/BUY/HK$43.72/Target: HK$57.70): 1H25: Margins miss due to transition period; meaningful recovery in 2H25. Maintain BUY. AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$73.45/Target: HK$91.00): 1H25: In-line VONB growth; strong OPAT beat. EVE Energy (300014 HK/HOLD/ Rmb48.07/Target: Rmb50.00): 2Q25: Earnings miss due to lowe...
We expect AIA to report a 16% yoy growth in VONB in 1H25, driven by strong volume growth in China and Hong Kong as well as margin expansion. We also expect its OPAT per share to grow 10% yoy, largely in line with the company’s target. We do not foresee any additional buyback in 2025 after the conclusion of the existing US$1.6b buyback. However, more clarity on its 2026 shareholder return guidance could be a key catalyst for further re-rating. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$91.00.
GREATER CHINA Results BeOne Medicines (6160 HK/BUY/HK$182.70/Target: HK$240.00): 2Q25: Results beat; expects revenue and margins to expand further. Cathay Pacific Airways (293 HK/SELL/HK$10.85/Target: HK$10.23): 1H25: Results broadly in line. Cargo facing higher uncertainties in 2H25. Downgraded to SELL. Update AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$73.55/Target: HK$91.00): 1H25 results preview: Solid VONB and earnings growth. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$54.00/Target: HK$69.20): 2Q25 results preview: Expect ...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results BeOne Medicines (6160 HK/BUY/HK$182.70/Target: HK$240.00) BeOne Medicines’ 1H25 revenue surged by 44.7% yoy to US$2.4b and adjusted net earnings amounted to US$389m, beating consensus estimates. Management raised revenue and gross margin guidance in 2025. We believe BRUKINSA's strong sales outlook and improving operational efficiency bode well for robust earnings and free cash flow expansion. Its R&D efforts will also support sustainable long-term growth through new prod...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: August Conviction Calls: Add JBM Healthcare and Lenovo to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Han’s Laser, KE Holdings and Longfor. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In July: Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, AKRA, ARCI, BBNI, KLBF, MTEL, and MYOR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Some Opportunities Amid A “Summer Lull”: Our July 25 Alpha Picks outperformed. Aug 25 picks: Coraza, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari, RHB and Zetrix. SINGAPORE ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls: Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June: Our new Alpha Picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA, AMRT and TLKM. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Positioning For Positive US Trade Deals: Our Jun 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Jul 25 picks: Coraza, Duopharma, Eco World, Gamuda, Hume Cement, IJM, Inari and MYEG. SINGAP...
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