reports
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Alpha Picks: May Conviction Call
The HSI and MSCI China rose 7.4% and 6.4% mom respectively in April, lifted by news of a stock connect scheme expansion and further easing of restrictions on property purchases in China. With the July Politburo likely to see further supportive policy rollout, we are adding beneficiaries of improving domestic consumption − CR Beer, Crystal, Geely, Haier, Kuaishou, Ningbo Tuopu, Pinduoduo, Shenzhou and Tencent − to our BUY list, and closing out our SELL calls.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
00291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER (HOLDINGS) CO. LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
2232 CRYSTAL INTERNATIONAL GROUP LTD
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
AIA Group (1299 HK): Strong VONB beat in 1Q24 with enhanced capital ma...
AIA’s 1Q24 VONB came in above our estimate with a 31% yoy growth, driven by a 26% growth in ANP and margin recovery in the Greater China business. AIA announced its enhanced capital management policy — adding US$2.0b to the existing share repurchase programme and bringing total shareholder return to 8.4%. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$95.00. With upside surprise from 1Q24 VONB growth and shareholder returns, we expect valuation re-rating to persist in the near term.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Tuesday, April 30, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$34.95/Target: HK$44.00) CMB’s 1Q24 earnings were slightly below our expectations due to disappointing fee income and higher cost ratio, partly offset by strong trading gains and lower credit impairment. 1Q24 NIM performance beat our expectation with a 2bp qoq decline and we expect it to hit its bottom by 2024 if there is another round of deposit rate cuts. Besides that, asset quality remains largely stable. Maintain BUY. Target price:...
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
000333 MIDEA GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
0168 TSINGTAO BREWERY CO. LTD. CLASS H
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
300760 SHENZHEN MINDRAY BIO-MEDICAL ELECTRONICS CO. LTD. CLASS A
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
02208 XINJIANG GOLDWIND SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS H
06690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS H
Z29 029 GROUP SE
1313 CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS LTD
- Arsit Pamaranont
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Ceilica Su Rui
- Chong Lee Len
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Philip Wong
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Sunny Chen
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, April 30, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results China Merchants Bank (3968 HK/BUY/HK$34.95/Target: HK$44.00) 1Q24: Earnings miss on muted fee income and higher cost-to-income ratio. China Resources Building Materials Tech (1313 HK/BUY/HK$1.34/Target: HK$1.83) 1Q24: Mixed bag of results; regaining cement market share. Foxconn Industrial Internet (601138 CH/BUY/Rmb24.52/Target: Rmb29.10) 1Q24: Margins miss likely due to product mix, AI business remains robust. Haier Smart Home (6690 HK/BUY/HK$27.10/Target: ...
600690 HAIER SMART HOME CO. LTD. CLASS A
2308 DELTA ELECTRONICS INC.
F34 WILMAR INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
X2S SINOPHARM GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
SIDO INDUSTRI JAMU DAN FARMASI SI
333 MIDEA GROUP
NESZ NESTLE (MALAYSIA) BERHAD
601138 FOXCONN INDUSTRIAL INTERNET CO. LTD. CLASS A
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
MPACT MAPLETREE PAN ASIA COMMERCIAL TRUST
524412 AAREY DRUGS & PHARMACEUTICALS LTD
IOIPG IOI PROPERTIES GROUP BHD
1313 CHINA RESOURCES BUILDING MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY HOLDINGS LTD
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
Hong Kong Insurance: Value buy or value trap?
We believe the recent regulatory action has limited impact on AIA and Prudential due to the small quantum of new business contribution from the involved brokers. We continue to expect regional insurers to deliver at least 20% yoy new business growth in 1Q24. However, high interest rates and market uncertainty could continue to weigh on their valuations in the near term. Any upside surprise in 1Q24 new business or favourable updates in shareholder returns could turn sentiment around. Maintain MAR...
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Malaysia Research Team
- Singapore Research Team
- Thailand Research Team
- Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
REG: Strategy: Alpha Picks - April 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Adding AIA, Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, with SELL calls on BYD, EVE Energy, and Li Auto. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Mar 24 and 1Q24: Our picks are ACES, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO, EXCL, MAPI, JSMR, CTRA, and AKRA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Expanding The Variety Of Events Bets: Our Alpha Picks trounced the KLCI in Mar 24. Apr 24 picks: GENM, Inari, Mah Sing, MrDIY, MY...
TFG THAIFOODS GROUP
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
300014 EVE ENERGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
CPF CHAROEN POKPHAND FOODS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ES ESSO SOCIETE ANONYME FRANCAISE
AKRA PT AKR CORPORINDO TBK
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
00388 HONG KONG EXCHANGES & CLEARING LTD.
CTRA CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT
STEC SINO-THAI ENGINEERING & CONSTRUCTION PCL
02328 PICC PROPERTY & CASUALTY CO. LTD. CLASS H
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
V03 VENTURE CORPORATION LIMITED
ERW ERAWAN GROUP
TOP THAI OIL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
JSMR PT JASA MARGA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
EA ENERGY ABSOLUTE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
COM7 COM7
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
600585 ANHUI CONCH CEMENT COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
C52 COMFORTDELGRO CORPORATION LIMITED
BMRI PT BANK MANDIRI (PERSERO) TBK
ORI1 ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
Z74 SINGAPORE TELECOMMUNICATIONS LIMITED
MAPI MITRA ADIPERKASA
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
AP4 RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
ADRO PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
300124 SHENZHEN INOVANCE TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD CLASS A
601888 CHINA TOURISM GROUP DUTY FREE CORPORATION LIMITED CLASS A
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
ACES PT ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA TBK
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
ROTI NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO
M4B CHINA MERCHANTS BANK CO. LTD. CLASS H
SE SEA ADS
INRI INARI AMERTRON BHD
PTTEP-R PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PCL NVDR
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
SCGB SUNWAY CONSTRUCTION GROUP BH
KPJ KPJ HEALTHCARE BERHAD
SMM SEMBCORP MARINE LTD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
MSGB MAH SING GROUP BHD
IOI IOI CORP BHD
CPALL TB CP ALL
GENM GENTING MALAYSIA BHD
MAHB MALAYSIA AIRPORTS HLDGS BHD
333 MIDEA GROUP
06098 COUNTRY GARDEN SERVICES HOLDINGS CO. LTD.
01801 INNOVENT BIOLOGICS INC.
2013 WEIMOB INC
EKO EKOVEST BHD
RGB RGB INTERNATIONAL BHD
SCB-R SIAM COMMERCIAL BANK PCL NVDR
709 GIORDANO INTERNATIONAL LTD
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
MRDIY MR DIY GROUP M BHD
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
2696 SHANGHAI HENLIUS BIOTECH INC
KEX KERRY EXPRESS (THAILAND)
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
1209 CHINA RESOURCES MIXC LIFESTYLE SERVICES
3692 HANSOH PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP
BUKA BUKALAPAK.COM PT TBK
PDD PINDUODUO PDD US
09888 BAIDU INC
BBTN BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA PERSERO TBK PT
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
GOTO GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CLAS CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
SMGR SEMEN INDONESIA PERSERO TBK
NATGATE NATIONGATE HOLDINGS BHD
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
SUNWAY SUNWAY BHD
ESSO ESSO THAILAND PCL
HUME HUME CEMENT INDUSTRIES BHD
02015 LI AUTO INC
09961 CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
BTG BETAGRO PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Greater China Research Team
China Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls
In Mar 24, the HSI and MSCI China edged up 0.2% and 0.9% mom respectively, as profit taking set in after the Two Sessions, while investors await further details of the policy support. The MSCI China index still trades at an undemanding valuation of 9.1x 12-month forward PE. We are mainly adding beneficiaries of policy support like Midea, Hansoh Pharmaceutical, Shenzhen Inovance and Trip.com to our BUY list, but hedging with SELLs on BYD, EVE Energy and Li Auto, where price competition has intens...
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
AIA Group (1299 HK): 2023: Delivering strong VONB growth.
AIA’s 2023 VONB came in above our estimates with 30%/33% yoy growth on an AER/CER basis, driven by the stronger-than-expected performance of MCV segments throughout the year and margin improvement in China during 2H23. We lift our 2024-25 VONB forecasts in the light of continued strong business momentum in Hong Kong and Thailand as well as a better margin outlook in China. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$101.00.
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Greater China Research Team
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Friday, March 15, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV market share hits record of 48% on price slashes. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELL: XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL, Tuopu and Desay SV. Results AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$62.25/Target: HK$101.00) 2023: Delivering strong VONB growth. KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/HOLD/HK$37.95/Target: HK$39.00) 4Q23: Strong top-line beat; expecting lukewarm recovery in 1Q24. Downgrade to HOLD. TRADERS’ CORNER China Overseas Land & Investment (688 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$11.00-...
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Ming San Soong
- Stevanus Juanda
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, March 15, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PEV market share hits record of 48% on price slashes. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Top SELL: XPeng. Top BUYs: CATL, Tuopu and Desay SV. Results AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$62.25/Target: HK$101.00): 2023: Delivering strong VONB growth. KE Holdings Inc (2423 HK/HOLD/HK$37.95/Target: HK$39.00): 4Q23: Strong top-line beat; expecting lukewarm recovery in 1Q24. Downgrade to HOLD. INDONESIA ASEAN Gems Conference Highlights Ace Hardware Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp840/Targ...
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
Greater China Insurance: New norm for domestic insurers.
Weak December premium data suggests that insurers kick off “jumpstart sales” without much fanfare under the new regulations. We believe that life insurers will focus more on quality growth over top-line premium growth in order to manage spread risks effectively amid the low interest rate environment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the insurance sector. We prefer regional life insurers over domestic insurers due to the former’s diversified exposures at this juncture. AIA remains our top pick.
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Strategy: Staying the course -- We expect China’s real G...
The Chinese economy will see a gradual climb higher in 2024, hitting 4% yoy growth, with private consumption providing much of the heavy lifting. Policy easing will be incremental, focusing on the real estate sector and local government financing. Until these issues are resolved, PE expansion will be limited. Thus, EPS growth will be the key driver, with an index target of 67.3pt. Our focus is on smart consumption, premiumisation and turnaround stocks, staying negative on the auto sector.
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
NEH NETEASE INC. SPONSORED ADR
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
9999 HK PINDUODUO PDD US
NETEASE INC
- Greater China Research Team
- Tham Mun Hon
Greater China Market Strategy: 2024 - Staying the course
The Chinese economy will see a gradual climb higher in 2024, hitting 4% yoy growth, with private consumption providing much of the heavy lifting. Policy easing will be incremental, focusing on the real estate sector and local government financing. Until these issues are resolved, PE expansion will be limited. Thus, EPS growth will be the key driver and our index target is at 67.3pt. Our focus is on smart consumption, premiumisation and turnaround stocks. Staying the course. The Central Financ...
AS7 ANTA SPORTS PRODUCTS LTD.
NEH NETEASE INC. SPONSORED ADR
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
SXC SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
600519 KWEICHOW MOUTAI CO. LTD. CLASS A
00027 GALAXY ENTERTAINMENT GROUP LIMITED
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
01810 XIAOMI CORP. CLASS B
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
1093 CSPC PHARMACEUTICAL GROUP LTD
291 CHINA RESOURCES BEER HOLDINGS CO LTD
9999 HK PINDUODUO PDD US
NETEASE INC
- Greater China Research Team
AIA Group (1299 HK): Maintain high VONB growth in 3Q23; outperforms pe...
AIA’s 3Q23 VONB came in above our estimates with 34.1% yoy growth, driven by the encouraging sales to MCV in Hong Kong and reaccelerated VONB growth in China. The ASEAN and India markets also delivered strong double-digit VONB growth. Margins improved for the first time since 4Q22 by 1.8ppt qoq to 51.3% due to a favourable shift in product mix and improved margins of the bancassurance channel in China. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$95.00.
- Greater China Research Team
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
- Terence Chiu
Greater China Daily: Monday, November 6, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Internet 11.11 Campaign – Value-for-money strategy to support growth revival. Update AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$70.90/Target: HK$95.00) Maintain high VONB growth in 3Q23; outperforms peers. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$15.24/Target: HK$16.80) 3Q23 results preview: Expect strong earnings beat on elevated margins. HSI AND HS TECH INDEX OUTLOOK
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Greater China Research Team
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Limartha Adhiputra
- Ming San Soong
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, November 06, 2023
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: 11.11 Campaign – Value-for-money strategy to support growth revival. Update AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$70.90/Target: HK$95.00): Maintain high VONB growth in 3Q23; outperforms peers. Xiaomi Corp (1810 HK/BUY/HK$15.24/Target: HK$16.80): 3Q23 results preview: Expect strong earnings beat on elevated margins. INDONESIA Sector Cement: Earnings in line, potential double-digit growth for 2023-24 NPAT. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. MALAYSIA Sector Property: Property companies und...
AIA Group Ltd: 1 director
A director at AIA Group Ltd bought 60,000 shares at 65.500HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 81/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...
- Greater China Research Team
Greater China Insurance: 1H23 results wrap-up: Delivering impressive N...
Both domestic and regional life insurers delivered strong NBV growth in 1H23 after China's reopening. P&C insurers continued their sustained premium growth with a slight increase in CoR. We expect domestic and regional life insurers’ NBV growth to diverge in 2H23 due to the suspension of higher-rate products in China and the attractive yield in Hong Kong, which is leading to higher growth in the MCV segment. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top picks: PICC P&C and Prudential. WHAT’S NEW
- Greater China Research Team
AIA Group (1299 HK): 1H23: VONB in line; margin slumps a concern.
AIA’s 1H23 VONB came in largely within our estimates, driven by the return of MCV in Hong Kong. The huge margin compression in 1H23 was due to the hot sale of lowmargin participating products. AIA continues to gain growth momentum in ASEAN but the company faces slower growth in China. We trim our 2023/24 EV per share forecast by 5% after revising our long-term VONB margin and VONB growth assumptions. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$95.00.
- Ariel Poh Yun Li
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Greater China Research Team
- Jo Yee Ng
- Johnny Yum Chung Man
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Sunny Chen
- Terence Chiu
- Ziv Ang Sze Champ
Greater China Daily: Friday, August 25, 2023
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results AAC Technologies (2018 HK/HOLD/ HK$15.56/ Target: HK$14.50) 1H23: Margins deteriorated further; better visibility of recovery in 2H23. AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/ HK$69.95/Target: HK$95.00) 1H23: VONB in line; margin slumps a concern. Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb18.02/Target: Rmb26.00) 1H23: Satisfactory results; strong demand to further boost revenue growth. China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$4.11/Target: HK$6.30) 1H23: Earnings continue to thrive despit...
XGH ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
0939 CHINA CONSTRUCTION BANK CORPORATION CLASS H
600809 SHANXI XINGHUACUN FEN WINE FACTORY CO. LTD. CLASS A
01299 AIA GROUP LIMITED
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
A2XN AAC TECHNOLOGIES HOLDINGS INC.
3690 MEITUAN DIANPING 3690 HK
2269 WUXI BIOLOGICS CAYMAN INC
9999 HK NETEASE INC
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