GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: May Conviction Calls: Add Alibaba, Innovent, Shuanghuan, Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit on JBM Healthcare and CR Land. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25: Remove ICBP, EXCL and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Capitalising On Sentiment Turnaround: Our Apr 25 Alpha Picks underperformed. May 25 picks: Duopharma, Gamuda, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME dotCom, MYEG, Nationgate, Northeast Group and RHB Bank. SINGAPO...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: April Conviction Calls: Add CR Beer, Desay, JBM Healthcare, JD Logistics, Minth, WuXi App Tech and Xiaomi Corp to our BUY list. Take profit on AIA, Hansoh Pharma, JD and Zijin Mining. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25: Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Pockets of Opportunities: Our Mar 25 Alpha Picks outperform. Apr 25 picks: Alpha IVF, Duopharma, IJM, IOI Properties, TIME...
AIA’s VONB grew 17% yoy in 2024, slightly below our and market expectations, mainly due to economic assumption changes in China amid falling rates. OPAT per share increased 12% yoy, ahead of management’s three-year growth target. DPS jumped 8.8% yoy with a new US$1.6b buyback programme, translating into a decent 6% yield. We believe its current valuation of 1.1x 2025F P/EV (-2.0SD) does not fully capture its improving fundamentals. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$93.00.
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply: Credit demand remains subdued. Sector Update Consumer: The State Council issued a plan on special initiatives to boost consumption. Initiate Coverage Waterdrop Inc (WDH US/BUY/US$1.50/Target: US$2.20): From crowdfunding to insurtech leadership with differentiated business model. Results AIA Group (1299 HK/BUY/HK$61.25/Target: HK$93.00): 2024: VONB slightly below expectations; new US$1.6b buyback programme. Contemporary Amperex Technology (300750 CH/BUY/Rmb26...
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics Money Supply February's M1 growth slowed to 0.1% yoy (-0.3ppt), missing consensus’ 1.0%, due to the Chinese New Year effect. M2 remained steady at 7.0% yoy, but new bank loans fell to Rmb1.01t compared with Jan 25’s Rmb5.13t, while new TSF fell to Rmb2.23t, both below forecasts. Thus, outstanding bank loans growth edged lower to 7.3% yoy. Nevertheless, outstanding TSF growth rose to 8.2% yoy due to increased government bond issuance. Weak domestic demand remains a key ...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls: Add Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining to our BUY list. Take profit on CATL, Desay, JD Logistics, Mengniu, Plover Bay and Tencent. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance In Feb 25: Our picks are BBNI, BBRI, MIKA, EXCL, KLBF, JSMR and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Unprecedented Combo Of Disappointments: Our Feb 25 Alpha Picks sorely underperformed. Mar 25 picks: 99SpeedMart, Alpha IVF, KPJ Healthcare, MrDIY, MYEG, RHB Ba...
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 13.4% mom and 11.5% mom respectively in February, riding the wave of optimism on China’s tech sector. Sino-US tensions look set to rise in March, as higher tariffs take effect and should lead to greater market volatility. Hence, we will be quick to take profit and will only add names with less demanding valuations. New additions to our BUY list are Geely, JD, SHKP and Zijin Mining.
The HSI and MSCI China index rose 0.8% mom and 0.9% mom respectively in January as investors awaited clarity on Sino-US relations and any additional Chinese stimulus. Looking ahead, we will focus on oversold names, policy beneficiaries and stocks that will also be quick to book profits due to greater market volatility. We are adding AIA, CR land, Haier and Han’s Laser to our BUY list. We take profits on Crystal, Geely, Trip.com and Weimob, and cut losses on Sinopharm.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls: Add AIA, CR Land, Haier and Han’s Laser to our BUY list. Take profit on Crystal, Geely, Trip.com and Weimob. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Slight Underperformance In Jan 25: Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Spotlight On The Upcoming Results Winners: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Jan 25. Feb 25 picks: Gamuda, GENM, Kossan, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, VSI...
We expect AIA’s 4Q24 VONB to grow 23% yoy, driven by reaccelerated growth in China against a lower base and solid sales performances in Hong Kong and Singapore. However, AIA may encounter some challenges in Malaysia and Thailand due to softer demand following the medical product repricing. We think that AIA is more resilient than its peers in the declining bond yield environment in China, thanks to its better ALM. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$93.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Aviation: Airlines Based on their preliminary earnings estimates, all three airlines remained in a loss-making position for 2024. This is below our expectations as we were expecting Air China and CSA to record slight profits. The losses were likely due to the sector’s overcapacity situation, but we remain hopeful for the sector’s turnaround in 2025 helped by further demand growth. Having said that, a moderate earnings recovery is not enough to resolve the airlines’ balanc...
GREATER CHINA Sector Aviation Airlines: The three major airlines’ 2024 preliminary earnings estimates were below expectations – still loss-making. Healthcare TCM: GPO price pressure continues to cloud 2025’s growth outlook. Consumer CNY preview: Expect home appli...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls: Add CATL, JD Logistics, Miniso and Plover Bay to our BUY list, and Weimob to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Our Selections Outperform In 2024: Our picks are ISAT, KLBF, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Still Ample Domestic Catalysts: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Dec 24. Jan 25 picks: Gamuda, GENM, MrDIY, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, SP Setia, VSI and Yinson. SINGAP...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls: Add Hansoh Pharma, Sands China, CSCEC and BYDE to our BUY list. Add Sinopharm to our SELL list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Oct 24: Our picks are NCKL, BBTN, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, JSMR, BBNI, CMRY and ASII. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Gearing Up For The Reporting Season: Our Alpha Picks outperformed in Oct 24. Nov 24 picks: EcoWorld, Gamuda, Lagenda, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, Top Glove, VSI and Yinson...
AIA’s 3Q24 VONB came in above our estimates with 17% yoy growth, driven by the better-than-expected Hong Kong business performance while the China and ASEAN markets achieved 9%/8% VONB growth against a high base. In addition, we turn more positive on AIA’s China outlook following the two new provincial license approvals. Valuation becomes more attractive (-1.9SD) with >8.0% of shareholder return yield after the recent correction. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$96.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI October’s manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1% (+0.3ppt mom), with improvements across all composite indices. However, new export orders and inventory of finished goods continued to contract, with increases in purchase prices. The non-manufacturing PMI rose to 50.2% (+0.2ppt mom), showing broad-based improvements across all indices but a slight dip in construction PMI. Activity for small-sized firms contracted, likely impacted by fewer new manufacturing export orders....
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI: Broad-based improvement in PMI. Results Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$8.11/Target: HK$14.60): 3Q24: Premiumisation slows down in China; in-home channel to be a focus. BYD Electronic (285 HK/BUY/HK$33.50/Target: HK$40.90): 3Q24: Solid set of results; 4Q24/2025 growth may accelerate further. Maintain BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/HOLD/HK$6.91/Target: HK$6.50): 3Q24: In line; 3Q24 wind power generation up 6.2% yoy. COSCO SHIPPING Holdings (1919 HK/HOLD/HK$11.54/Tar...
The HSI and MSCI China surged 17.5% and 23.1% mom respectively in September, buoyed by the PBOC’s policy easing and supportive statements from the Politburo meeting. Looking ahead, we are keeping beneficiaries of an improved domestic consumption outlook in our stock picks and adding CATL, Geely and Plover Bay.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: October Conviction Calls: Adding CATL, Geely and Plover Bay to our BUY list. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Defensive Stance Worked In Sep 24: Our picks are ASII, BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. MALAYSIA Strategy Alpha Picks: A Variety of Event Drivers: Our Alpha Picks outperforms as hoped. Oct 24 picks: EcoWorld, Gamuda, Lagenda, MYEG, Pekat, RGB, RHB Bank, Sime Darby, VSI and Yinson. SINGAPORE Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperforming ...
The MSCI China rose 0.8% in August, trailing the HSI’s 3.7%, as the former was weighed by the weaker performance of utilities, materials and consumer staples. Looking ahead, we opine that the Fed rate cut in Sep 24 should be priced in and we do not expect ratesensitive sectors to outperform. We are adding AIA, COLI, Desay SV, Galaxy Entertainment, Meituan, Ping An and The United Laboratories to our BUY list. We remain cautious on the EV sector, adding Li Auto to our SELL list.
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