YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - 2025 guidance unchanged, we see EPS close to...

Q1 EBIT and EPS saw a healthy beat against our estimates and consensus, driven by a strong sales mix and internal efficiency gains. Unsold, completed apartments fell by 30% YOY, to their lowest level since Q3 2023. We have raised our 2025e EBIT, but do not see this as evidence of a broader recovery in Finnish residential markets. Our 2025e EBIT remains just above the guidance mid-point, with EPS hovering just below zero. We reiterate our SELL, but have raised our target price to EUR2 (1.75).

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

Sales as expected, deliveries above

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.75) - No KPI or EBIT recovery in Q1e

The Finnish residential and commercial real estate markets continue to show no sign of recovery in Q1. While we expect the CEE division to recover, given its minor size, we still forecast group EBIT of zero for Q1. We will look for commentary on the housing shortage and an expected recovery on lower interest rates – a recurring topic the past for three years. We find consensus too bullish and reiterate our SELL and EUR1.75 target price.

Selvaag Bolig ASA: 5 directors

Five Directors at Selvaag Bolig ASA sold 294,695 shares at between 36.840NOK and 37.020NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over ...

Price momentum building

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - DPS recovery still some way off

While we continue to expect KPIs such as sales and starts to improve in 2025–2026, the lead time to profit and dividends remains long, and we continue to see a better risk/reward in peers. Q4 results were, as expected, hit by few deliveries (low season) and one block of delivered (profit-recognised) units being a small rental building. As we roll forward our valuation and publish our 2027 forecasts, we reiterate our SELL but have raised our target price to NOK32 (30).

'25e volume guidance in line

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR1.75) - 2025 set to be another lost year

Q4 EBIT and EPS were well below our forecasts and consensus. However, the main disappointment in the report was the 2025 adj. EBIT guidance – at EUR20m–60m, based on expected Housing completions. We have cut our EBIT forecast to align with the guidance mid-point, while our 2025–2026e EPS are back in negative territory, with the recovery seemingly delayed for another year. We reiterate our SELL, and have cut our target price to EUR1.75 (2).

Q4e: Improving market outlook

Taking a hit from smaller unit deliveries in Q4

Wide peer valuation range on market recovery expectations

Various waves of expectations for a recovery in newbuild markets have led to volatility in the sector, but an upwards share-price trend overall. Although we still await proof the new-volume market (both residential and commercial) is recovering, consensus is fuelled by falling rates. However, trailing profits under IFRS valuations are record-wide. We maintain a neutral sector view and stock-picking approach.

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - Set for zero Q4 EPS

We forecast Q4 EPS to be close to zero, in line with Vara consensus; EPS should improve in 2025–2026e but remain low nominally. For the Q4 webcast, we expect the focus to be on capital releases and cost efficiency programmes. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price, finding a better risk/reward elsewhere.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - KPI recovery, but profits must wa...

In its Q4 trading update, unit sales increased by 39% YOY to 122 (net) and starts by 129% YOY to 298, broadly in line with our forecasts. Although new housing sales will likely recover from the trough on lower interest rates, we expect Selvaag Bolig’s earnings recovery to take longer, and estimate Q4 EBIT down by 16% YOY to NOK108m (results due at 07:00 CET on 12 February). We reiterate our SELL and NOK30 target price.

Construction starts the highlight

YIT (Sell, TP: EUR2.00) - New ambitions, but with a condition

At its CMD, the company presented new financial and non-financial targets through 2029. However, these depend on a reversion in the Finnish residential market to an historical average of c16,000 new housing starts annually. Given YIT’s track record of not achieving its financial targets, we have made no forecast changes. We reiterate our SELL and EUR2 target price, finding a better risk/reward elsewhere.

It's all about sales momentum from here

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK30.00) - Q3 miss, Urban Property covenants

While Q3 was an expected low season, with few deliveries, EPS was below our forecast on higher costs. The POC EBIT margin also fell more than we estimated, but we expect this to improve in the coming quarters with more starts. The company said it has renegotiated the terms with Urban Property, and the NIBD/EBITDA covenant will now use the POC (NGAAP) figures (previously volatile IFRS figures), thereby removing the potential 2025 covenant breach. However, we continue to find consensus recovery ex...

Running interest payments to UP from 2025e