The Asia Trade Book for April 2025 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.
In Apr 25, major mainland cities saw mom/yoy decreases in new home sales, while second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities continued to see positive yoy growth. The supportive remarks by Premier Li Qiang on 15 April point to further upside on property policies. The upcoming Politburo meeting will be an important window for clues of new policies. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to further upside; upcoming Politburo meeting to be an important policy window. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$49.15/Target: HK$68.00) 1Q25: Earnings up 46% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$68.00. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb24.27/Target: Rmb32.20) 1Q25: Net pro...
In Apr 25: a) major mainland cities saw mom decreases in new home sales and secondhand transactions; b) the CVI index in Hong Kong is hovering around 40, pointing to weakened sentiment; and c) mainland tourists to Hong Kong/Hong Kong residents to China grew 15.7%/25.2% yoy respectively. Amid rising trade risks, stabilising domestic demand has become more important for China. Besides, Hong Kong’s free port status needs to be monitored. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in March 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on dev...
According to the latest NBS data, national sales were stronger than expected but new starts remained sluggish in 2M25, leading to a faster destocking pace. Due to improved supply-demand dynamics and enhanced destocking policies, we raise our forecast for national residential GFA sold growth in 2025 to -2.5% yoy under a neutral scenario. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land and Longfor remain our top picks.
We noticed an improvement in demand-supply dynamics in Tier 1 cities, especially in Shenzhen and Guangzhou, where inventory months have decreased by 3.4 and 13.4 months yoy to 15/15 months respectively. 2025 NPC and CPPCC meetings have set a positive policy tone, with the greater autonomy of destocking being a key highlight. We expect the market to further stabilise in March. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick. Add Longfor to our POE top picks for improved sentiment.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Shenzhen and Guangzhou seeing notable improvement in demand-supply dynamics. Results ECARX Holdings Inc (ECX US/BUY/US$2.67/Target: US$3.40) 4Q24: Net loss narrows due to revenue growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: US$3.40. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,260/Target: Rp3,300) XLSmart estimates potential cost synergies of US$300-...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in February 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
Property sales in mainland China saw yoy growth in Feb 25. Multiple real estate indicators showed signs of market stabilisation. In Mar 25, the performance of real estate stocks may be volatile. We continue to keep an eye on policy catalysts. In Hong Kong, both the CCL index and CVI index weakened in early-Feb 25, but recent primary sales achieved high sell-through rates. We expect an improvement in Hong Kong’s primary market after the budget speech. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land a...
After the Chinese New Year period, we visited eight projects in Shenzhen and Shanghai in mid-Feb 24 to check the market performance. We saw a gradual recovery in Shenzhen and Shanghai property transactions in Feb 25, and observed the stabilisation of sentiment among homebuyers and developers. If stronger fiscal policies are introduced during the Two Sessions in Mar 25, we expect to see further recovery and decent yoy growth in property sales. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Channel checks and observations of Shenzhen and Shanghai primary markets. INDONESIA Strategy Danantara – Who Could Benefit Beneficiaries: PGEO, ANTM, TINS, BMRI, BBNI, BBRI and TLKM. We have an end-25 target of 7,500 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results 99 Speed Mart Retail (99SMART MK/BUY/RM2.14/Target: RM2.60) 4Q24: Delivers on earnings...
Property sales in both mainland China and Hong Kong recovered wow in the third week of Feb 25. With a continued decline in transition volume and improvement of sentiment in a few cities, we expect the land market to continue its structural divergence in 2025. In Hong Kong, the CCL index remained stable, but we expect high inventory to continue weighing on property prices. We stay cautious on NWD with a HOLD rating despite the
Bloomberg reported a rumour that the Chinese government is considering allocating a special bond quota of Rmb20b for the purchase of unsold units and idle lands from Vanke. With the recent acceleration in idle land repurchase and considering Vanke’s resources in Guangdong, we think the existing policy framework has set up the mechanism for local governments to fund major SOEs. However, uncertainty exists in practice. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Policy implementation will be a key catalyst.
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Potential implications of de minimis tax exemption. Property Will local government special bonds be a lifeline for Vanke? Update Sunny Optical (2382 HK/BUY/HK$88.60/Target: HK$100.00) Sunny Optical issues profit alert for 2024 – expect a solid beat on earnings expectati...
Property sales in major mainland cities in the first week of Feb 25 were still weak as both transactions and publication of data were impacted by the CNY holiday. A positive development in policy implementation was that Zhuhai spent Rmb6.6b to buy back idle lands from SOEs. Another market highlight is the rumour about Shenzhen removing HPRs, which we think is not impossible. Policy development remains a key focus and catalyst. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick is CR Land.
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet Growth potential and AI development trends following emergence of DeepSeek. Property Policy implementation and development remain the key focus and catalyst. INDONESIA Strategy Catching A Falling Knife Or Opportunity To Buy? We Say Buy Our picks are BBCA, BBTN, CMRY, ICBP, KLBF, CTRA, AMRT, PGEO, TL...
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