Since June, more cities have allowed HPF to be used for downpayments, although the usage for second-hand homes remains limited. YOY growth in new- and secondhand home transaction volumes in Tier 1 cities turned negative in Jun 25, pointing to a further weakening in market sentiment. While supply in Tier 1 cities remains stable and the HPF policy may offer some support, major policy easing is unlikely in the near term. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
The latest data from the NBS indicates that the weakness in both sales and investment sentiment within China's property industry, observed in April, continued into May 25. Market sentiment continues to diverge across city tiers – Tier 1 cities outperformed while lower-tier cities struggled. Despite Premier Li Qiang’s pledge to boost demand and stabilise the market, significant policy easing is unlikely before end-July, contributing to expected volatility in developer stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Mixed bag for May. Sector Property Property market weakens further in May 25, with diverging city-tier performance. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ/BUY/Rp454/Target: Rp610) Soaring to new heights; initiate coverage with BUY. MALAYSIA Update Press Metal ...
Shenzhen will allow homebuyers to use HPF for down payments, following Guangzhou’s strategy. With growing balances, HPF is expected to become one of the major policy tools to stabilise the property market in 2025. In 5M25, some top-tier cities saw strong growth in land sales, outperforming the national market. Sales data for key cities in Jun 25 point to a yoy fall in both new home sales and secondary transactions. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
In May 25, data from 28 cities and the top 100 developers’ sales point to a mom increase but yoy fall in new home sales. Secondary transactions in 12 cities continued to see a yoy hike. Homebuyers’ sentiments remain weak and divergent among cities, but better supply-demand dynamics lower the urge to introduce strong policies. For Hong Kong, the gentle yoy decline in retail sales and stronger tourist numbers growth are positive developments. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land, SHKP and L...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in May 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on devel...
In May 25, overall new home sales improved compared with Apr 25. The second-hand home market remains resilient thanks to flexible pricing. We visited three residential projects with the following takeaways: a) discounts in Suzhou are larger, b) smaller units saw a higher sell-through rate, and c) the proportion of new home sales units is shrinking. We think property market sentiment is still weak. Continuous policy support is needed. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
In May 25, new home and second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities remain relatively resilient. We visited four residential projects in Shanghai and observed: a) better sales of upgrading units, b) price stabilisation, and c) a challenging margin outlook. In Hong Kong, with the sharp decline of 1M HIBOR being a major positive development, RVD’s latest rental yields data points to improved return of smaller units. We expect higher yields into the school admission season. Maintain sector ratings an...
In Apr 25, the 28 mainland cities we monitored saw yoy decreases in new home sales, and total sales for Top 100 developers fell 16.9% yoy, worsening from a 10.6% yoy drop in Mar 25. As holiday delays data registration, we think the sales data for next two weeks will show the strength of sales in May 25. For the Hong Kong market, declining inventory and rising rental yields are positive signs. But consumption leakage remains a key concern. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in April 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on dev...
The Asia Trade Book for April 2025 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.
In Apr 25, major mainland cities saw mom/yoy decreases in new home sales, while second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities continued to see positive yoy growth. The supportive remarks by Premier Li Qiang on 15 April point to further upside on property policies. The upcoming Politburo meeting will be an important window for clues of new policies. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to further upside; upcoming Politburo meeting to be an important policy window. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$49.15/Target: HK$68.00) 1Q25: Earnings up 46% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$68.00. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb24.27/Target: Rmb32.20) 1Q25: Net pro...
In Apr 25: a) major mainland cities saw mom decreases in new home sales and secondhand transactions; b) the CVI index in Hong Kong is hovering around 40, pointing to weakened sentiment; and c) mainland tourists to Hong Kong/Hong Kong residents to China grew 15.7%/25.2% yoy respectively. Amid rising trade risks, stabilising domestic demand has become more important for China. Besides, Hong Kong’s free port status needs to be monitored. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
The tariffs announced by Trump increased uncertainties over the Fed’s rate cuts, weighing on the recovery of the Hong Kong residential market and tourism. The mainland property market will be less affected, backed by China’s relatively independent monetary policy. For 2025, leading SOE developers’ earnings stabilisation will be a key highlight. Maintain sector weights with this pecking order: China property>Hong Kong developers>Hong Kong landlords. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
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