HEADLINES: • Bank of Cyprus: paid to wait (stays BUY) • Polish utilities: 2030 capacity market price set at PLN 465/kW/year NEUTRAL • Orlen: receives response from Grupa Azoty about offer for Grupa Azoty Polyolefins NEUTRAL • CEZ: new government aiming to reduce power bills by c.10% or more NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: preparing to drill offshore Bulgaria by the year-end NEUTRAL
HEADLINES: • Romania macro: Bucharest vote supports government • Inter Cars: November sales growth decelerates to 2.6% yoy NEGATIVE • PGE: CEO and COO dismissed; former Tauron CEO appointed as acting CEO NEUTRAL • Polish utilities: ready for lower distribution WACC NEGATIVE • Jumbo: sales up 6% in November and 8% in 11M25, as expected NEUTRAL • Optima Bank SA: 4m shares block trades at 1.9% discount NEUTRAL • Pegasus Airlines: signs an agreement to acquire Czech Airlines for EUR 154m POSITIVE • ...
Pegasus has agreed to acquire Czech Airlines and its subsidiary, Smartwings, for EUR 154m (full equity). Subject to regulatory approval, the transaction could mark a new phase in Pegasus’s development as a group, with EU-domiciled airlines, offering a strategic foothold in Prague and, more broadly, across Europe. With over EUR 1.5bn in liquidity at end-September, the purchase price is manageable, while the deal provides access to an EU carrier generating around one-third of Pegasus’s revenues, a...
HEADLINES: • Pegasus Airlines: signs an agreement to acquire Czech Airlines for EUR 154m • Auto Partner: November sales growth decelerates to 2.6% yoy NEGATIVE • Budimex: PLN 1.1bn offer selected by PKP PLK POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 November-4 December) • Postcards from Prague • Dino • Enea • Warsaw Stock Exchange • CEZ • Banca Transilvania • BRD-GSG • Cimsa • Akcansa • Artea Bankas • Ignitis • NLB Group • Mavi: 3Q25E earnings preview (due out 10 December)
HEADLINES: • Poland macro: NBP cuts again, with inflation back at target • Wirtualna Polska: sells Invia Flights Germany at EUR 42.3m EV, 9.0x 2024 EV/EBITDA POSITIVE • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2025: Postcards from Prague • Allegro • Asseco Poland • Benefit Systems • Budimex • CCC • Kety • PGE • Tauron • Primoco UAV • Aquila Part Prod Com S.A. • MedLife • Mavi • Georgia Capital • GEVORKYAN • Krka • Medicover
Passenger traffic momentum has weakened in 2025, and we do not expect it to improve significantly in 2026. Turkey’s aviation traffic trends showed 6.6% y/y growth in 10M25 (international +7%; domestic +6%), marking a slowdown from previous years (2023: +18%; 2024: +8% y/y) as the tourism sector faces headwinds from TL appreciation and geopolitics. Foreign tourist arrivals stayed flattish y/y in 10M25, marking the slowest y/y performance since the Covid rebound. Looking ahead to 2026, continued T...
EME Equity Market – November 2025 Czech PX leads in November, Türkiye the only loser. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.5% mom in EUR terms and 2.1% mom in USD terms in November. The Czech PX was the top performer, adding 4.7% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE and the Hungarian BUX (+4.4% and +3.7% mom, respectively, in EUR terms). The Romanian BET and Polish WIG 20 were also in the green (+1.3% and +1.0% mom in EUR terms). The only loser was the Turkish ISE 30 (-2.0% mom in EUR terms).
The macro backdrop entering 2026E remains broadly supportive for high-dividend strategies across Emerging Europe and the frontier markets, but the opportunity set has clearly narrowed. After a year of sharp repricing across the WOOD universe, the high dividend conditions of 2024-25 have largely disappeared, as a result of many sectors rerating materially. As a result, high-dividend exposure is no longer a broad regional trade: the most compelling opportunities are now concentrated. However, the ...
HEADLINES: • MOL: much to admire, despite the fire (stays BUY) • PGE: decent 3Q25 results - recurring EBITDA at PLN 2.95bn (+6% vs. our expectations), but weak net income NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: 3Q25 adjusted EBIT up 42% yoy, 15% above our forecast; FY25E cards addition target exceeded by November, FY26 plan of 260k+ new cards POSITIVE • Hidroelectrica: 3Q25 net profit of RON 0.73bn, 14% lower yoy and 5% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Sphera Group: 3Q25 soft, but better than we expected NEUTRA...
Despite 17% capacity growth, the EBIT declined 20% yoy, driven by a sharp yield contraction, with the RASK down 14% yoy. For context, during the summer periods of 2024, 2023, 2022 and 2019 (excluding the COVID-19 period), the average EBIT margin stood at 36% – around 50% above the 24% achieved in 3Q25 – despite fuel cost support. The company has lowered its guidance slightly. Management noted that the market conditions in 4Q25 remain unchanged, implying continued pressure on the RASK. We expect ...
HEADLINES: • Banca Transilvania: bottom-line beat in 3Q25, on higher trading income and lower costs POSITIVE • Jahez: 3Q25 financial results review NEGATIVE • Pegasus Airlines: 3Q25 – RASK pressure exceeds our estimate NEGATIVE • CCC: preliminary 3Q25 EBITDA miss of 5%; FY25E EBITDA guidance cut to PLN 1.7-1.8bn, from PLN 2.4bn NEGATIVE • Alpha Bank: 3Q25 highlights – a mixed bag NEUTRAL • Dino: key takeaways from the 3Q25 call NEGATIVE • InPost: key takeaways from the 3Q25 call NEGATIVE • MOL: ...
Please excuse the lateness of our Daily today, due to technical issues. HEADLINES: • Theon International: impressions from the CMD POSITIVE • OTP Bank: books solid 3Q25, in line with expectations; market waiting for management to reveal plans on surplus capital allocation decisions NEUTRAL • Dino: 2-3% EBITDA miss in 3Q25; lfl and EBITDA dynamics behind Zabka; FY25E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • InPost: 3Q25 slightly above expectations; FY25E EBITDA guidance trimmed, on slower Yodel NEUTRAL • ...
Low fuel prices remain a key tailwind for the sector, but many airlines under our coverage are seeing margin compression this year, as yields lag CASK inflation. The early summer was also affected negatively by the June escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. We expect Wizz Air to deliver c.20% EBIT growth, off a relatively low base last summer; while Aegean Airlines and Turkish Airlines to record mid-single digit yoy EBIT declines in 3Q25E, with the modest yield pressure and rising CASK ...
OMV Petrom reported a Clean CCS EBIT of RON 1,368 mn, slightly missing consensus by 2.6%, mainly due to the E&P segment. E&P was heavily impacted by impairment charges and higher-than-expected depreciation; excluding the increase in depreciation, its Clean CCS EBIT would have been around RON 510 mn, roughly halfway between the analyst consensus and Concorde’s estimate. We had been more optimistic on realized gas prices, depending on the share of gas sold at market versus capped prices. Oth...
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