EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Polish Banks: not done yet (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Kazatomprom: digging the margins (stays BUY) • Jahez: mixed 2023 financial results NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: publishes 2024 budget NEUTRAL • Migros: BoD to propose DPS of TRY 6.904 NEUTRAL • Short News (M, BRISA)
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • CCC: the boys are back in town (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: solid 2023 profits, generous PLN 19.2/share dividend, market waiting for AGM date POSITIVE • Orlen: 4Q23 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: key takeaways from the 4Q23 conference call NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: potential to pay out up to 50% of its 2023 net profit as a dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: PFSA guides for maximum dividend payout • Polish banks: mBank, ING BSK and Santander BP receive dividend letters fro...
HEADLINES: • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • CEZ: postcard from Prague • Colt CZ Group SE: postcard from Prague • Eurowag: postcard from Prague • Pilulka Lekarny: postcard from Prague • Athens Exchange Group: postcard from Prague • Elbit Systems: postcard from Prague • Siauliu Bankas: postcard from Prague • Budimex: postcard from Prague • CD Projekt: postcard from Prague • Cyber_folks: postcard from Prague • Cyfrowy Polsat: postcard from Prague ...
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Logo Yazilim: clearer skies in 2024E (stays BUY) • Turkish Airlines: 3Q23 - even better summer than last year POSITIVE • Brisa: solid 3Q23 results, on gross margin expansion and low CIT NEUTRAL • Migros: strong beat in the 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • ING BSK: posts solid 3Q23 results, but largely in line with its peers NEUTRAL • Verbund: 3Q23 results above our estimates • Alkaloid: 3Q revenues growth normalises, 4Q shaping up nicely NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: US - Fed stays on h...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: plunge overdone (stays BUY) • CEZ: PM Fiala says no minority squeeze out, nationalisation in the pipeline NEGATIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: takeaways from the capital markets day • Polish banks: to face potential extension of credit holidays NEUTRAL • Borouge: 3Q23E results preview (due on 30 October) • Budimex: 3Q23E EBITDA up slightly yoy, despite demanding comparison base (due on 30 October) • Coca-Cola Icecek: 3Q23E earnings preview (due 31 October) • Mig...
HEADLINES: • Turkish food retailers: onwards and upwards (BIM and Migros and Sok Marketler stay BUY) • Asseco Poland: profitability rebound ahead (stays BUY) • Romania macro: NBR on hold, as expected • CD Projekt: 3m Phantom Liberty copies sold in first week, but budget exceeds our assumptions POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: 3Q23 bookings up 5% qoq POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 3Q23 bookings recover 9% qoq POSITIVE • NEPI Rockcastle: Fortress (24% owner of NRP) may distribute NRP's shares to its shar...
We have a positive view of the Turkish food retailers, as we anticipate that sustained revenue growth, due mainly to the high inflationary effects, and a margin recovery will be the primary drivers in 2H23E and 2024E. Despite the challenges in 1H23, due to high wage costs and the high base of 1H22; we anticipate a sharp margin recovery in 2H23E, thanks to the operating leverage effect and the elimination of one-off expenses, and expect the recovery to continue in 2024E, but at a slower pace. We ...
Food retailers are well-placed to face the upcoming challenges: We believe consumers will experience the effects of the recent economic tightening measures implemented by the government starting more in 4Q23, as wage hikes’ impact erodes, back to school season ends, inflation rises and credit card costs surge. However, given the retailers’ competitive pricing strategies and demand elasticity of grocery spending, they should be able to effectively navigate these challenges. Regulatory risks have...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: posts solid 2Q23 and delivers 25%+ headline ROE; trading at just 1.2x reported P/BV • Komercni Banka: solid 2Q23, beat on LLPs, rest in line, 2023E outlook seems to be well on track NEUTRAL • ING BSK: solid 2Q23 results, better on quality mix, NII in the limelight • Migros: 2Q23 results - in line operationally NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: 1Q FY24 - revenue environment remains strong, with costs in line with the consensus POSITIVE • BRD-GSG: solid bottom line, despite NIM con...
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: 2Q23 results - in line operationally, but bottom line misses expectations NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 July) • Kruk: buys another portfolio in Spain POSITIVE • Cyfrowy Polsat: acquires naEKRANIE.pl website and 4FUN channels NEUTRAL • TeraPlast: 2Q23E earnings preview (due out tomorrow) • Tofas: 2Q23E earnings preview (due on 26 July) NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: 2Q23E earnings preview (due on 27 July) NEUTRAL • Migros: 2Q23E earnings preview (due on 2 A...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Jahez: entering new markets (stays HOLD) • Turkish Airlines: 1Q23 - stellar pax yields, partly offset by higher CASK and declining cargo yields POSITIVE • Migros: 1Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Brisa: small 1Q23 beat, driven by continuing margin recovery POSITIVE • Anadolu Efes: strong operating results in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 1Q23 - solid start to the year POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: Chamber of Deputies approves solidarity tax law, including tax on processed crude •...
EME Equity Market – April 2023 Market performance – in the black across all geographies, except for Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.4% mom in EUR terms and 4.9% mom in USD in April. The Polish WIG20 Index saw the biggest gains (+11.5% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+7.8% mom in EUR terms) and the Greek ASE Index (+2.9% mom in EUR terms). More muted performances were witnessed in the Czech PX Index and Romanian BET Index, both adding 1.7% mom in EUR terms for th...
HEADLINES: • mBank: bottom-line miss due to costs, but opportunity to BUY NEGATIVE • Erste Bank: books strong 1Q23 results, ahead of expectations, tweaks up FY23E guidance POSITIVE • Bank Millennium: neutral 1Q23 results - profit reported, capital still needs time to recover NEUTRAL • Otokar: 1Q23 results - miss on EBITDA and net income levels NEGATIVE • Tekfen Holding: weak 1Q23 results, due to margin hit in chemicals and one-off tax charge NEGATIVE • Garanti: 1Q23 highlights - better than expe...
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