ABGSC Shipping Daily 28 March

25% tariff on US car imports

Yesterday’s news is likely to weigh on the car carrier sector as it strikes at the core of shipping demand. We would expect headwinds for the stocks.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 24 March

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

It is all about dividends

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA (Buy, TP: NOK123.00) - Start of something goo...

The inaugural H2 extraordinary dividend marks a new beginning for a company that has spent recent years shedding debt and improving its balance sheet. We view this move positively, and believe it is just the beginning. Our forecasts suggest cNOK90/share could be distributed to shareholders by end-2027. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK123 (125).

DPS beat in Q4, but lower '25 guidance range

Adj. EBITDA of USD 446m (+2% vs. ABGSC, -2% vs. cons); Shipping and Government above, logistics below; DPS beat warrants positive share price reaction, despite lower '25 guidance.

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

Valuations to withstand trouble

We foresee increasing risks to continued demand growth on headwinds for Chinese export growth, while facing a hefty delivery schedule. Add to this the potential return to Red Sea transits, and we find rates should be under pressure and inevitably deteriorate the earnings potential for our covered companies. However, the attractive backlogs secure sizable value in near-term cash flows, offsetting much of the risk. Due to diverging valuations, we reiterate our BUY on Wallenius Wilhelmsen but have ...

ABGSC Shipping Daily 15 January

Tanker markets up, dry bulk and LPG down; Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.78x; Tanker and dry bulk sector report: 2025 could be wild. Or not; HAUTO trading update: Another solid quarter; KCC business update - ~9% downside to cons. Q4 EBITDA; DHT Q4 Business Update, 10% downside to consensus Q

ABGSC Shipping Daily 14 January

Tanker and LPG markets up, mixed in dry bulk, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.76x, Car shipping: CAAM forecasts 2025 Chinese vehicle export up 5.8% y-o-y (ABGSCe at +6.0%)Gulf of Aden arrivals down 72% by capacity, Panama Canal - Transits remains in line with pre-drought levels, Gatun Lake mo

ABGSC Shipping Daily 10 January

ABGSC Shipping Daily 6 January

Mixed dry bulk markets, container up, tankers and LPG down, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.72x, no significant changes to asset values, Car shipping (WAWI, HAUTO): The largest USD/day decline in 1YR TC rates since 2008, Overview of recent sanctioning of "the dark fleet"

Hyundai/Kia contract back at 50% of volumes

Wallenius Wilhelmsen renews key contract. Increases duration from 3 to 5 years, volumes up from 40% to 50%. Implied net rate mid-60's/CBM, put/call agreement not discussed.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 20 December

Car shipping sector report: Still tight, though fleet growth is accelerating, Gulf of Aden arrivals down 74% by capacity, Panama Canal - Transits in line with pre-drought levels, Gatun Lake monitor - Water levels projected lower.

Still tight, though fleet growth is accelerating

Cheap is not enough

Weak '25 guidance, down to HOLD

ABGSC Shipping Daily 12 December

Mixed tanker markets, dry bulk down, LPG up; Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.67x; New EU sanctions against Russia’s ghost fleet; WAWI - signs two multi-year contracts with "large auto OEMs".

ABGSC Shipping Daily 10 December

HAUTO: CEO sells shares, now hold 0.48% of the company, China November import data; coal and crude up, iron ore slightly down, Car shipping: Chinese passenger car export: -10% m-o-m in November, +25% YTD.