Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA (Buy, TP: NOK91.00) - Solid value in troublin...

Challenging times for the car carriers is reflected in depressed equity valuations. We believe a considerable backlog to derisk the investment over time, and potential upside on any respite in peaking trade tensions, make for an attractive investment case. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK91 (115).

US tariffs pressure trade and rates

USTR port fees watered down; positive for shipping overall, except car...

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

ABGSC Shipping Daily 4 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 3 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 2 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 1 April

ABGSC Shipping Daily 31 March

ABGSC Shipping Daily 28 March

25% tariff on US car imports

Yesterday’s news is likely to weigh on the car carrier sector as it strikes at the core of shipping demand. We would expect headwinds for the stocks.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 24 March

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

It is all about dividends

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA (Buy, TP: NOK123.00) - Start of something goo...

The inaugural H2 extraordinary dividend marks a new beginning for a company that has spent recent years shedding debt and improving its balance sheet. We view this move positively, and believe it is just the beginning. Our forecasts suggest cNOK90/share could be distributed to shareholders by end-2027. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK123 (125).

DPS beat in Q4, but lower '25 guidance range

Adj. EBITDA of USD 446m (+2% vs. ABGSC, -2% vs. cons); Shipping and Government above, logistics below; DPS beat warrants positive share price reaction, despite lower '25 guidance.

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

Valuations to withstand trouble

We foresee increasing risks to continued demand growth on headwinds for Chinese export growth, while facing a hefty delivery schedule. Add to this the potential return to Red Sea transits, and we find rates should be under pressure and inevitably deteriorate the earnings potential for our covered companies. However, the attractive backlogs secure sizable value in near-term cash flows, offsetting much of the risk. Due to diverging valuations, we reiterate our BUY on Wallenius Wilhelmsen but have ...

ABGSC Shipping Daily 15 January

Tanker markets up, dry bulk and LPG down; Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.78x; Tanker and dry bulk sector report: 2025 could be wild. Or not; HAUTO trading update: Another solid quarter; KCC business update - ~9% downside to cons. Q4 EBITDA; DHT Q4 Business Update, 10% downside to consensus Q

ABGSC Shipping Daily 14 January

Tanker and LPG markets up, mixed in dry bulk, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.76x, Car shipping: CAAM forecasts 2025 Chinese vehicle export up 5.8% y-o-y (ABGSCe at +6.0%)Gulf of Aden arrivals down 72% by capacity, Panama Canal - Transits remains in line with pre-drought levels, Gatun Lake mo