In Guangzhou and Shenzhen, relaxed construction standards have boosted new project efficiency ratios and sales, but increased pressure on older inventory, prompting Guangzhou to tighten rules again in May 25. For Longfor, we expect a 60-70% yoy fall in 1H25 core earnings due to lower DP segment GPM. We lower our earnings forecast and target price for Longfor while maintaining BUY for its resilient IP portfolio and deleveraging progress. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
In 1H25, CR Land's revenue is expected to rise about 20% yoy with better-than-expected GPM, but core profit may drop around 5% yoy due to fewer one-off gains. COLI is projected to see a mild revenue growth, with a yoy decline in GPM, leading to an around 20% yoy drop in core profit. Although sales of both CR Land and COLI fell short of targets, 1H25 financials were better than the market had feared. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
Held on 14-15 July, the central urban work conference set a pragmatic tone on urbanisation without any mention of large-scale urban redevelopment. The updated framework set at the meeting will help lower policy uncertainty in the medium term, in our view. With the continuous weakening of property sales in June-July 25 and further declines in property prices in all city tiers, the mid-year Politburo meeting at the end of July 25 remains a key policy window. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; top pick: CR La...
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Resilient 1H25 growth of 5.3% yoy belies rising downside pressure. Sector Healthcare Weekly: Gaining strength on robust earnings outlook and pipeline growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Property Property sales and prices weakened further in J...
Hangzhou’s property market saw weaker June sales but a stable 1H25 performance, with a stronger performance in the upgrade segment. Core area projects saw high sell-through rates and strong demand for large units. The removal of pricing restrictions in Hangzhou has enabled developers to adopt more flexible pricing and strategies. We see a higher likelihood of policy support being announced during the July Politburo meeting. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
June’s HSI and MSCI China Index rose 3.4% mom and 4.0% mom respectively, despite the pullback due to the Middle East tensions. July may see increased volatility as the US looks to bring the tariff negotiations to a close. At this juncture, we continue to favour domestic policy beneficiaries and sector leaders. New additions to our BUY list are CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and Tencent Music Entertainment. We take profit on Prudential.
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: July Conviction Calls Add CATL, KE Holdings, Longfor, Midea Group, Tencent and TME to our BUY list. Take profit on Prudential. Sector Online Games Upcoming new game releases to capitalise on the summer holiday season. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances In June Our new alpha picks are ANTM, BBCA, ERAA, ICBP, MYOR, MIKA...
For China’s property sector, Jun 25 preliminary data pointed to weakening sales, while the land market saw a clearer divergence. Weakened fundamentals may raise hopes of policy support in the July Politburo meeting. In Hong Kong, with the rental index in May 25 only 2.4% lower than the peak in Aug 19, we see signs of a stabilisation of property prices. However, a rebound in HIBOR may test the strength of sales recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT for both sectors with a preference for China property...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Property Weakening sales in China has raised hopes of policy support in July; rebound in HIBOR will test the strength of recovery in Hong Kong property sales. INDONESIA Update Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ/BUY/Rp5,025/Target: Rp6,000) 5M25: Steady earnings amid NIM pressure. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas ...
Since June, more cities have allowed HPF to be used for downpayments, although the usage for second-hand homes remains limited. YOY growth in new- and secondhand home transaction volumes in Tier 1 cities turned negative in Jun 25, pointing to a further weakening in market sentiment. While supply in Tier 1 cities remains stable and the HPF policy may offer some support, major policy easing is unlikely in the near term. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
The latest data from the NBS indicates that the weakness in both sales and investment sentiment within China's property industry, observed in April, continued into May 25. Market sentiment continues to diverge across city tiers – Tier 1 cities outperformed while lower-tier cities struggled. Despite Premier Li Qiang’s pledge to boost demand and stabilise the market, significant policy easing is unlikely before end-July, contributing to expected volatility in developer stocks. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Mixed bag for May. Sector Property Property market weakens further in May 25, with diverging city-tier performance. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Bumi Resources Minerals (BRMS IJ/BUY/Rp454/Target: Rp610) Soaring to new heights; initiate coverage with BUY. MALAYSIA Update Press Metal ...
Shenzhen will allow homebuyers to use HPF for down payments, following Guangzhou’s strategy. With growing balances, HPF is expected to become one of the major policy tools to stabilise the property market in 2025. In 5M25, some top-tier cities saw strong growth in land sales, outperforming the national market. Sales data for key cities in Jun 25 point to a yoy fall in both new home sales and secondary transactions. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
In May 25, data from 28 cities and the top 100 developers’ sales point to a mom increase but yoy fall in new home sales. Secondary transactions in 12 cities continued to see a yoy hike. Homebuyers’ sentiments remain weak and divergent among cities, but better supply-demand dynamics lower the urge to introduce strong policies. For Hong Kong, the gentle yoy decline in retail sales and stronger tourist numbers growth are positive developments. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land, SHKP and L...
GREATER CHINA Strategy China Property & Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Manageable pressure in mainland property market; improved tourism and retail sales momentum in Hong Kong. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Good Performances in May Good performances from most with the exception of GOTO and BUKA. MALAYSIA Results CIMB Group (CIMB MK/HOLD/RM6.93/Target: RM7.70) 1Q25: Earnings in line, underpinned by lower provisions. Mai...
In May 25, overall new home sales improved compared with Apr 25. The second-hand home market remains resilient thanks to flexible pricing. We visited three residential projects with the following takeaways: a) discounts in Suzhou are larger, b) smaller units saw a higher sell-through rate, and c) the proportion of new home sales units is shrinking. We think property market sentiment is still weak. Continuous policy support is needed. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.
In Apr 25, the 28 mainland cities we monitored saw yoy decreases in new home sales, and total sales for Top 100 developers fell 16.9% yoy, worsening from a 10.6% yoy drop in Mar 25. As holiday delays data registration, we think the sales data for next two weeks will show the strength of sales in May 25. For the Hong Kong market, declining inventory and rising rental yields are positive signs. But consumption leakage remains a key concern. Maintain sector ratings. Top picks: CR Land and SHKP.
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property Market watch around May holiday: New-home sales recovery weakens in Apr 25; the trend of Hong Kong resident travelling north remains strong. Sector Consumer Strong Macau visitations and robust home appliance sales during Labour Day Holiday. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/BUY/Rp2,540/Target:...
In Apr 25, major mainland cities saw mom/yoy decreases in new home sales, while second-hand transactions in Tier 1 cities continued to see positive yoy growth. The supportive remarks by Premier Li Qiang on 15 April point to further upside on property policies. The upcoming Politburo meeting will be an important window for clues of new policies. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. CR Land remains our top pick.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property Supportive policy remarks by Premier Li Qiang point to further upside; upcoming Politburo meeting to be an important policy window. Results Fuyao Glass Industry Group (3606 HK/BUY/HK$49.15/Target: HK$68.00) 1Q25: Earnings up 46% yoy, in line with estimates. Maintain BUY. Target price: HK$68.00. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/BUY/Rmb24.27/Target: Rmb32.20) 1Q25: Net pro...
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