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Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: NBS Data For Sep 25 Shows Industry Weakness, Expect Pr...

Industry data showed further deterioration in Oct 25. The 0.4% yoy growth in property completion in Sep 25 is a positive development. Given the higher comparison base since Oct 24, we expect nationwide property sales to see deeper yoy declines in 4Q25. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the China property sector, with CR Land as our top pick.

Audrey Celia ... (+15)
  • Audrey Celia
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Ken Lee
  • Philip Wong
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Willinoy Sitorus
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Greater China Economics | Economic Activity China’s 3Q25 GDP growth slowed to 4.8% yoy, 9M25 growth to 5.1%. Ytd FAI fell 0.5% yoy, dragged by property FAI (-13.9% ytd yoy). September's industrial production rose 6.5% yoy, but retail sales growth eased to 3.0% yoy. With the stronger-than-expected 9M25 growth, we raise the full-year real GDP growth forecast to 5.0% yoy. That said, further policy support is still needed and we expect proposals for the 15th Five-year Plan to provide further clu...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China and Hong Kong Property: Takeaways From Visit To Jinling Residenc...

Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+13)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Audrey Celia
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Lester Siew
  • Ming San Soong
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, October 15, 2025

Greater China Sector Update | Property Jinling Residence’s strong sell-out highlights resilient end-user demand despite weaker investment sentiment, while major cities’ October data showed yoy declines in both new and secondary home sales. We maintain MARKET WEIGHT. We upgrade Kerry Properties to BUY after the recent correction, with an unchanged target price of HK$22.80. Company Update | Alibaba Group (9988 HK/BUY/HK$155.20/Target: HK$203.00) We expect solid 2QFY26 results, despite marg...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China and Hong Kong Property: Update Of Key Data And Trends During 202...

Golden Week new-home sales varied, with sales in Tier 1 cities growing 18.1% yoy on average, while sales in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities declined. In Hong Kong, second-hand transactions from 2024-25 projects, like SHKP's Cullinan Sky, achieved better capital gains, boosting investor sentiment. Tourism data was mixed: mainland tourist growth slowed, other regions’ visitors surged, and northbound travel stayed strong. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China and Hong Kong property/landlord sectors.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Channel Check On Shanghai’s Property Market.

Shanghai’s property market shows diverging trends: New home prices remain supported by a low-base effect from previous price caps and policy easing, but the secondary housing market stays weak, with falling prices, rising listings and improving rental yields. LGFVs lag in pace and quality, while project management companies stand out as beneficiaries. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector.

Damon Shen ... (+9)
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 23, 2025

Greater China Sector Update | Property Property investment has declined since Jul 25 due to weak demand, LGFV financing controls, slow destocking and urban-redevelopment, and limited new loans. Sep 25 data showed a rebound in Tier 1 city home sales, led by Shanghai. Central government capital is needed. However, the existing policy stance points to a low possibility of direct injection by the central government. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with CR Land as our top pick. Indonesia Strategy | T...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: NBS Data For Aug 25 Shows Continued Industry Weakness,...

The nationwide property data in Aug 25 remained weak. The decent rebound in property transactions in Shanghai/Shenzhen after the removal of HPRs is a positive development. Expect supportive monetary and fiscal policies to support homebuyers’ sentiment. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the China property sector, with CR Land as our top pick.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: 1H25 Results Wrap-Up; Will The Removal Of HPRs In Non-...

In 1H25, Chinese developers faced declining profitability but stable balance sheets. Supportive policies drive a positive outlook. On 5 September, Shenzhen eased HPRs in non-core areas after Beijing and Shanghai, though Beijing's August sales disappointed. Further market consolidation is expected. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT and CR Land as our top pick.

Benyamin Mikael ... (+14)
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kasemsun Koonnara
  • Ming San Soong
  • Philip Wong
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Willinoy Sitorus
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 09, 2025

Greater China Economics | Trade China’s export momentum softened in August as front-loaded US demand has faded, exposing the vulnerability of shipments to the US market. While the trade diversion supported flows to ASEAN and the EU, overall growth moderated. Imports also weakened amid subdued agricultural demand, despite firmer commodity-related inflows. Pro...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK): 1H25: Results in line with strengthen...

Longfor's core net profit fell 70% yoy due to an estimated Rmb26b net loss from PD. Recurring business stayed resilient despite AEIs. Net OCF improved to Rmb2.0b with stronger debt metrics. With Rmb120b in saleable resources in 2H25 and a strong mall pipeline, management targets Rmb10b positive OCF and Rmb30b debt reduction in 2025. We cut PD margin and earnings forecasts. Roll to FY25/26 blended recurring earnings and raise PD’s P/B, thus lifting our target price to HK$11.98. Maintain BUY.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+21)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kate Luang
  • Ken Lee
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Ming San Soong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Monday, September 1, 2025

KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI August's manufacturing PMI edged up slightly to 49.4 (+0.1pt mom), while non-manufacturing PMI improved modestly to 50.3 (+0.2pt mom). However, construction PMI fell to 49.1 (-1.5pt mom), below the expansion threshold for the first time since January. With moderating decline in new orders and new export orders, PMI for large-sized enterprise (50.8, +0.5pt mom) and small-sized enterprise (46.6, +0.2pt mom) both improved. Overall, a mixed bag. Results Alibaba Group...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China & Hong Kong Property Strategy: CR Land’s acquisition of Shanghai...

The 30 Jul Politburo meeting emphasised strict controls on hidden government debt and high-quality/prudent urban renewal. CR Land’s acquisition of two prime residential projects in Shanghai (Rmb24.5b) highlights opportunities for SOE developers as LGFVs divest assets under stricter oversight. While Tier 1 and 2 cities show further sales weakness, Hong Kong is progressing with destocking, with potential changes to ease capital transfers for mainland talents. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China & Hong Kong Property & Property Management Strategy: Mainland ma...

Mainland property sales continued to weaken in July, which may weigh on the recovery of land sales. Potential policy support in 2H25 could be a positive catalyst. The Hong Kong property market showed signs of stabilisation: CCL index has turned positive ytd, while inventory of primary private residential units decreased 3.8% qoq in 2Q25. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on both sectors, favouring CR Land in China for its resilient performance. We also highlight our other top pick, CR Mixc, for its attract...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+17)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Audrey Celia
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Benyamin Mikael
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Philip Wong
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
  • Wei Xiang Ku
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, July 29, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy China & Hong Kong Property & Property Management Mainland market continues to weaken, while the Hong Kong residential market progresses with destocking; we highlight CR Land and CR Mixc as top picks. INDONESIA Initiate Coverage Archi Indonesia (ARCI IJ/BUY/Rp770/Target: Rp1,280) Well-timed turnaround with true potential waiting to be unlocked. Results Cisarua Mountain Dairy (CMRY IJ/BUY/Rp4,750/Target: Rp6,000) 1H25: ...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Channel check on Guangzhou’s and Shenzhen’s primary re...

In Guangzhou and Shenzhen, relaxed construction standards have boosted new project efficiency ratios and sales, but increased pressure on older inventory, prompting Guangzhou to tighten rules again in May 25. For Longfor, we expect a 60-70% yoy fall in 1H25 core earnings due to lower DP segment GPM. We lower our earnings forecast and target price for Longfor while maintaining BUY for its resilient IP portfolio and deleveraging progress. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Operational update and 1H25 earnings preview for CR La...

In 1H25, CR Land's revenue is expected to rise about 20% yoy with better-than-expected GPM, but core profit may drop around 5% yoy due to fewer one-off gains. COLI is projected to see a mild revenue growth, with a yoy decline in GPM, leading to an around 20% yoy drop in core profit. Although sales of both CR Land and COLI fell short of targets, 1H25 financials were better than the market had feared. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Property sales and prices weakened further in June and...

Held on 14-15 July, the central urban work conference set a pragmatic tone on urbanisation without any mention of large-scale urban redevelopment. The updated framework set at the meeting will help lower policy uncertainty in the medium term, in our view. With the continuous weakening of property sales in June-July 25 and further declines in property prices in all city tiers, the mid-year Politburo meeting at the end of July 25 remains a key policy window. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; top pick: CR La...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+15)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Wei Xiang Ku

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, July 16, 2025

GREATER CHINA Economics Economic Activity Resilient 1H25 growth of 5.3% yoy belies rising downside pressure. Sector Healthcare Weekly: Gaining strength on robust earnings outlook and pipeline growth. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Property Property sales and prices weakened further in J...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Channel check on Hangzhou’s primary residential market...

Hangzhou’s property market saw weaker June sales but a stable 1H25 performance, with a stronger performance in the upgrade segment. Core area projects saw high sell-through rates and strong demand for large units. The removal of pricing restrictions in Hangzhou has enabled developers to adopt more flexible pricing and strategies. We see a higher likelihood of policy support being announced during the July Politburo meeting. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top pick: CR Land.

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