Longfor reported a 2025 core net loss of RMB1.7b, in line with guidance, with property development margins turning negative, while recurring businesses remained resilient. PD margins will stay under pressure in 2026, but its shrinking revenue base should reduce earnings drag. Management targets Rmb10b core profit from recurring business by 2027-28 and guides for sustained positive cash flow with lower debt maturities. We narrow our 2026 loss forecast, raise our target price to HK$10.95, and main...
Top Stories Company Results | China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$8.09/Target: HK$9.20) CCB’s 4Q25 earnings grew 2.2% yoy, thanks to a surge in other non-NII amid increased bond trading gain, fee income growth and cost control. NIM was largely stable and management expects smaller NIM compression in 2026. Asset quality was largely stable despite some pressure on mortgages. These results reaffirm CCB's continued fundamental improvement and its attractive dividend yield of 5.3% stands out as a...
The recent policy easing in Shanghai has lifted housing demand, with stronger sell-through for smaller units and a pickup in lower-priced secondary home transactions, supported by higher Housing Provident Fund loan quotas and demand from newly eligible non-local buyers. However, rising secondary listings and the launch of higher-quality new homes may continue to pressure secondary home prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector, with CR Land as our top pick.
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, as February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. Se...
The 2026 NPC Government Work Report sets a supportive policy tone for the property sector, focusing on supply control, destocking and HPF reform. However, high-frequency data in early-Mar 26 remains weak partly due to the high base and we expect Tier 1-2 new-home sales to stay soft in 1Q26. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector but suggest keeping some exposure as a hedge against policy volatility; CR Land remains our top pick.
Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential for incremental policy support after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 2026F P/B, 0.6SD below the mean and with a 4.3%...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential policy after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 26PB, 0.6SD below mean...
Recent equity placements proposals by Zhuhai Huafa Properties and Seazen signal improving equity financing conditions for mainland developers. Expected losses in 2025 will lower BPS for SOE/quasi-SOE developers, increasing the likelihood of state-owned capital injections amid industry consolidation. Jan 26 property sales data shows improved yoy performances in both the primary and secondary markets, partly due to a low base in Jan 25 which was impacted by the Spring Festival. Maintain UNDERWEIGH...
CRIC data shows top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% YoY in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain an UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below five-year mean, and PE and yield near five year average.
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
In 2025, CR Land and COLI saw 15-20% yoy profit declines and Longfor’s core profit may turn from positive to negative due to weak DP margins. For 2026, the outlook remains constrained, though as it is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, SOEs are expected to have clearer growth targets. In Jan 26, new-home sales in 28 major cities fell 40% yoy, while second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities declined 4% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT, but we see a rising possibility of policy support.
Longfor repaid Rmb22.1b in bonds and offshore loans, clearing its 2025 maturity peak. 2026 bond and offshore loan maturities will drop 70% to Rmb6.2b. We expect: a) Longfor to turn to net losses in 2025-26 due to wider PD segment losses, b) recurring businesses to remain resilient, and c) bottom line to turn positive in 2027. Rolling over to 2026 earnings to value recurring businesses, we cut SOTP-based target price to HK$10.90 with a lower P/B for DP to 0.1x. Maintain BUY.
Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile 12 Chinese automakers set ambitious targets for 2026. Despite weak sales from 1-18 January, we maintain our PV sales forecast of 30.4m units (+3% yoy), driven by exports and EVs. Policy shifts in the EU and Canada are creating a more favourable environment for Chinese EV exports, supporting overseas growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto. Company Update | Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK/BUY/HK$9....
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile 12 Chinese automakers set ambitious targets for 2026. Despite weak sales from 1-18 January, we maintain our PV sales forecast of 30.4m units (+3% yoy), driven by exports and EVs. Policy shifts in the EU and Canada are creating a more favourable environment for Chinese EV exports, supporting overseas growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto. Company Update | Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK/BUY/HK$...
The NBS published industry data for Dec 25, which revealed weak industry fundamentals. Demand remains under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post yoy declines even with the low base in Jan 25. We expect sales growth in 1Q26 to remain negative yoy, due to the high base since Feb 25 and weak demand. Policy uncertainty and weak policy implementation continue to be key concerns, and we remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector.
Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably towards the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high policy volatility and weak policy implementation in 1...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably toward the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high polic...
Qiushi published an article on 1 Jan 26, emphasising the government's renewed commitment to stabilise the property market, suggesting a higher likelihood of stronger policy support in 1H26; however, implementation risks remain, in our view. Demand stayed weak in Dec 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 37% yoy and second-hand home prices in three Tier 1 cities down by 24% yoy. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector and expect a continued consolidation toward SOEs. We keep CR Lan...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
At the latest pre-CEWC Politburo meeting, not a word about property policy and urbanisation was mentioned. This points to a much lower possibility of strong stimulus for the property industry in the near term. Demand stayed weak in Dec 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 55% yoy and second-hand home prices in most cities falling. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.