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Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Longfor Group (960 HK): 2025: Net Loss In line; Expect Lower Debt Matu...

Longfor reported a 2025 core net loss of RMB1.7b, in line with guidance, with property development margins turning negative, while recurring businesses remained resilient. PD margins will stay under pressure in 2026, but its shrinking revenue base should reduce earnings drag. Management targets Rmb10b core profit from recurring business by 2027-28 and guides for sustained positive cash flow with lower debt maturities. We narrow our 2026 loss forecast, raise our target price to HK$10.95, and main...

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+13)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Carol Dou Xiao Qin
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Damon Shen
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Joyce Chu
  • Ken Lee
  • Shirley Wang Xueyi
  • Stella Guo Yuting
  • Sunny Chen
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Ziv Ang Sze Champ

Greater China Daily: Monday, March 30, 2026

Top Stories Company Results | China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$8.09/Target: HK$9.20) CCB’s 4Q25 earnings grew 2.2% yoy, thanks to a surge in other non-NII amid increased bond trading gain, fee income growth and cost control. NIM was largely stable and management expects smaller NIM compression in 2026. Asset quality was largely stable despite some pressure on mortgages. These results reaffirm CCB's continued fundamental improvement and its attractive dividend yield of 5.3% stands out as a...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Channel Check On Shanghai’s Property Market.

The recent policy easing in Shanghai has lifted housing demand, with stronger sell-through for smaller units and a pickup in lower-priced secondary home transactions, supported by higher Housing Provident Fund loan quotas and demand from newly eligible non-local buyers. However, rising secondary listings and the launch of higher-quality new homes may continue to pressure secondary home prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector, with CR Land as our top pick.

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+16)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Arsit Pamaranont
  • Audrey Celia
  • Claire Wang Kelai
  • Damon Shen
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Joyce Chu
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kate Luang
  • Keith Wee Teck Keong
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Posmarito Pakpahan
  • Tham Mun Hon
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, March 17, 2026

Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, as February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. Se...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: NPC Signals Policy Support, Property Sales Stay Subdue...

The 2026 NPC Government Work Report sets a supportive policy tone for the property sector, focusing on supply control, destocking and HPF reform. However, high-frequency data in early-Mar 26 remains weak partly due to the high base and we expect Tier 1-2 new-home sales to stay soft in 1Q26. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on the sector but suggest keeping some exposure as a hedge against policy volatility; CR Land remains our top pick.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: POEs’ Financing Channels Improve, But New Home Market ...

Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential for incremental policy support after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 2026F P/B, 0.6SD below the mean and with a 4.3%...

Adrian Loh Tzum Yung ... (+15)
  • Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
  • Alden Gabriel Lam
  • Damon Shen
  • Desmond Chong Chee Wai
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Johnny Yum
  • Kai Jie Tang
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Malaysia Research Team
  • Singapore Research Team
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Vincent Khoo Boo Aik
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, March 3, 2026

Greater China Sector Update | China Property Seazen’s C-REIT application signals improving financing channels. Sector fundamentals remain weak, with 2M26 developers’ contract sales and major cities’ new-home data still under pressure, despite relatively resilient secondary transactions. Second-hand property prices modestly recovered mom in four Tier 1 cities. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT but see potential policy after the March NPC. Our top pick is CR Land, trading at 0.65x 26PB, 0.6SD below mean...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Greater Feasibility Of State-Owned Capital Injections;...

Recent equity placements proposals by Zhuhai Huafa Properties and Seazen signal improving equity financing conditions for mainland developers. Expected losses in 2025 will lower BPS for SOE/quasi-SOE developers, increasing the likelihood of state-owned capital injections amid industry consolidation. Jan 26 property sales data shows improved yoy performances in both the primary and secondary markets, partly due to a low base in Jan 25 which was impacted by the Spring Festival. Maintain UNDERWEIGH...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: New-home Sales Remain Weak In Jan 26; Top Pick: CR Lan...

CRIC data shows top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% YoY in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain an UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below five-year mean, and PE and yield near five year average.

Audrey Celia ... (+16)
  • Audrey Celia
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Damon Shen
  • Gigi Cheuk
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Joyce Chu
  • Kate Luang
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Kong Ho Meng
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Roy Chen Chengzhi
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, February 03, 2026

Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....

BDMS BANGKOK DUSIT MEDICAL SERVICES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
IVL INDORAMA VENTURES PUBLIC CO. LTD.
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BUOU FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
PTTEP PTT EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION PLC
PTTGC PTT GLOBAL CHEMICAL PUBLIC COMPANY LTD
CPN CENTRAL PATTANA PUBLIC CO. LTD.
ASII PT ASTRA INTERNATIONAL TBK
Q5T FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
WPRTS MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
06088 WESTPORTS HOLDINGS BHD
ICBP FIT HON TENG LIMITED
RATCH INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
UHU RATCH GROUP PUBLIC CO. LTD.
CRPU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
CICT SASSEUR REIT (S CHIP)
SCGP CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
LREIT SP SCG PACKAGING PCL
OXMU LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
HMN PRIME US REIT
CLCT ASCOTT RESIDENCE TRUST
KORE CAPITALAND CHINA TRUST
BBNI KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
GOTO BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY GOJEK TOKOPEDIA TBK PT
MXNU PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
CLAR ELITE COMMERCIAL REIT MGNT PTE LTD
DCRU CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: 2025 Results Preview; Second-Hand Home Transactions Sh...

In 2025, CR Land and COLI saw 15-20% yoy profit declines and Longfor’s core profit may turn from positive to negative due to weak DP margins. For 2026, the outlook remains constrained, though as it is the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan, SOEs are expected to have clearer growth targets. In Jan 26, new-home sales in 28 major cities fell 40% yoy, while second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities declined 4% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT, but we see a rising possibility of policy support.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK): 2025 Results Preview: Successfully Na...

Longfor repaid Rmb22.1b in bonds and offshore loans, clearing its 2025 maturity peak. 2026 bond and offshore loan maturities will drop 70% to Rmb6.2b. We expect: a) Longfor to turn to net losses in 2025-26 due to wider PD segment losses, b) recurring businesses to remain resilient, and c) bottom line to turn positive in 2027. Rolling over to 2026 earnings to value recurring businesses, we cut SOTP-based target price to HK$10.90 with a lower P/B for DP to 0.1x. Maintain BUY.

Bella Lu Yifei ... (+6)
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Damon Shen
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Joyce Chu
  • Ken Lee

Greater China Daily: Friday, January 23, 2026

Top Stories Sector Update | Automobile 12 Chinese automakers set ambitious targets for 2026. Despite weak sales from 1-18 January, we maintain our PV sales forecast of 30.4m units (+3% yoy), driven by exports and EVs. Policy shifts in the EU and Canada are creating a more favourable environment for Chinese EV exports, supporting overseas growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto. Company Update | Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK/BUY/HK$9....

Audrey Celia ... (+15)
  • Audrey Celia
  • Bella Lu Yifei
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Damon Shen
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • HIFZHAN RAZIQ BIN HARIS FADZLAN
  • Jieqi Liu
  • John Cheong Ming Chern
  • Kai Jie Tang
  • Ken Lee
  • Philip Wong
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, January 23, 2026

Greater China Sector Update | Automobile 12 Chinese automakers set ambitious targets for 2026. Despite weak sales from 1-18 January, we maintain our PV sales forecast of 30.4m units (+3% yoy), driven by exports and EVs. Policy shifts in the EU and Canada are creating a more favourable environment for Chinese EV exports, supporting overseas growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto. Company Update | Longfor Group Holdings (960 HK/BUY/HK$...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Sales Remain Weak In Dec 25 While Property Investment ...

The NBS published industry data for Dec 25, which revealed weak industry fundamentals. Demand remains under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post yoy declines even with the low base in Jan 25. We expect sales growth in 1Q26 to remain negative yoy, due to the high base since Feb 25 and weak demand. Policy uncertainty and weak policy implementation continue to be key concerns, and we remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector.

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Sales Remain Weak in Jan 26; Land Investments Still Co...

Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably towards the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high policy volatility and weak policy implementation in 1...

Benjaphol Suthwanish ... (+12)
  • Benjaphol Suthwanish
  • Damon Shen
  • Heidi Mo Jinghui
  • Jack Goh Tooan Orng
  • Jack Lai Yuan Khai
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Jo Yee Ng
  • Julia Pan Mengyao
  • Kenny Yong Hui Lim
  • Lester Siew
  • Ming San Soong
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, January 13, 2026

Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand remained under pressure in Jan 26, with both new-home sales and secondary-home transactions continuing to post sharp yoy declines. Land market activity weakened notably toward the end of 2025, while capital and demand were further concentrated in a small number of strong Tier 1-2 cities, underscoring persistent divergence across regions amid still-soft market sentiment. We remain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, and expect high polic...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Key Party Media Qiushi Emphasises Government’s Commitm...

Qiushi published an article on 1 Jan 26, emphasising the government's renewed commitment to stabilise the property market, suggesting a higher likelihood of stronger policy support in 1H26; however, implementation risks remain, in our view. Demand stayed weak in Dec 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 37% yoy and second-hand home prices in three Tier 1 cities down by 24% yoy. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector and expect a continued consolidation toward SOEs. We keep CR Lan...

Andrew Agita Buntoro ... (+16)
  • Andrew Agita Buntoro
  • Chong Lee Len
  • Colin Lee
  • Damon Shen
  • Ejann Hiew
  • Greater China Research Team
  • Jieqi Liu
  • Johnny Yum Chung Man
  • Jonathan Koh
  • Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
  • Krit Tanarattananon
  • Philip Wong
  • Suryaputra Wijaksana
  • Thailand Research Team
  • Thanawat Thangchadakorn
  • Willinoy Sitorus

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, January 06, 2026

Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...

Damon Shen ... (+2)
  • Damon Shen
  • Jieqi Liu

China Property: Latest Pre-CEWC Politburo Meeting Sidesteps Supports F...

At the latest pre-CEWC Politburo meeting, not a word about property policy and urbanisation was mentioned. This points to a much lower possibility of strong stimulus for the property industry in the near term. Demand stayed weak in Dec 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 55% yoy and second-hand home prices in most cities falling. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China’s property sector, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance.

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