ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/25/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 25/10/2024

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KONE : La Chine gâche une nouvelle fois la fête au T3

>Un T3 2024 inférieur aux attentes, à l’exception des commandes - Les commandes ont progressé de 5.5% à changes constants au T3 (css à 0.6% et ODDO BHF à 2%), grâce notamment au segment modernisation (+ 20%) et malgré un recul de plus de 15% des commandes en nouveaux équipements (en volumes) en Chine. La marge brute des commandes est en léger recul par rapport au T3 2023 et en séquentiel, du fait de la Chine. Le CA progresse de 1.1% à changes constants au T3, ave...

KONE : China spoils the party again in Q3

>Q3 2024 below forecasts, with the exception of order intake - Order intake was up by 5.5% at constant currency (cc) in Q3 (consensus at 0.6% and ODDO BHF at 2%), notably thanks to the modernisation segment (+20%) and despite a decline of more than 15% in orders for new equipment (in volume terms) in China. Gross margin on order intake was down slightly vs Q3 2023 and on a sequential basis, due to China. Revenue was up 1.1% cc in Q3, with activity in China down 2...

Fortnox (Buy, TP: SEK83.00) - Q3 reinforced our scalability thesis

Fortnox continues to execute well in a tough market, with adj. EPS of 34% and adj. FCF growth of 104% YOY, demonstrating the business model’s resilience and scalability. The deconsolidation of Offerta should trigger an organic sales growth acceleration in Q4e at higher margins, while encouraging KPIs for the business card and payments offering show incremental potential for 2025e. Since 2021, the stock has been roughly flat, as it has grown into its valuation multiples (~50% multiples contractio...

Great aftermarket, China smaller but nasty

Approaching improved organic growth

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/24/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 24/10/2024

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KONE : A broadly disappointing Q3, aside from orders

>Q3 2024: sales up 1.1% at constant FX and adjusted EBIT margin of 11.6% - KONE has reported this morning Q3 results below consensus forecasts, except for orders. These grew by 5.5% at constant forex in Q3 (css at 0.6% and ODDO BHF at 2%), mainly thanks to the modernisation segment, up 20%, despite a more than 15% drop in new equipment orders (in volume) in China. The gross margin on orders was slightly weaker than in Q3 2023.Sales rose by 1.1% at constant forex ...

KONE : Un T3 globalement décevant, à l’exception des commandes

>T3 2024 : CA 1.1% hors effets changes et marge d’EBIT ajusté à 11.6% - KONE a publié ce matin des résultats T3 inférieurs aux attentes du consensus, à l’exception des commandes. Ces dernières sont en hausse de 5.5% à changes constants au T3 (css à 0.6% et ODDO BHF à 2%), grâce notamment au segment modernisation qui progresse de 20% et malgré un recul de plus de 15% des commandes en nouveaux équipements (en volumes) en Chine. La marge brute des commandes est en léger ...

Better margins, but weaker org. growth

Better orders, but margins lagged

Sales recovery and cost cuts ahead

Q3 results slightly better than feared, new cost savings

Heads-up for report 24 October

Schindler order growth bodes well

Profit warning points to a soft Q3

US consumers gearing up to spend in 2025

Truecaller (Buy, TP: SEK53.00) - Expecting 16% revenue growth in Q3

We expect a return to growth in Advertising revenues in Q3, broadly stable growth QOQ in User revenues, and increased momentum in Truecaller for Business (TfB) following price rises. We expect the launch of the new iOS product to improve User growth further in Q4 and in 2025. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK53 (50).