HEADLINES: • Romania: first round of presidential election signals tough times ahead • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 April-4 May) • Al Arabia: signs Riyadh train and buses contract POSITIVE • Al Arabia: Faden Media signs a contract with the Jeddah Municipality POSITIVE • Huuuge Games: April bookings estimate down 10% mom, to USD 9m NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: April bookings estimate down 3% mom, deeper declines in core titles NEGATIVE • Gentoo Media: delisting from the Oslo Børs to b...
EME Equity Market – April 2025 EME indices mostly in the red in April, Hungarian BUX and Greek ASE the exceptions. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 2.0% mom in EUR terms, but was up 2.9% mom in USD terms in April. The Hungarian BUX was the best performer, followed by the Greek ASE index (+3.5% and 0.8% mom in EUR terms, respectively). There was a slight decline in the Polish WIG20, and more pronounced deteriorations in the Romanian BET and Czech PX indices (-0.6%, -2.0% and -4.2% mom in EUR ...
HEADLINES: • Theon International: 1Q25 trading update – strong execution, rich options POSITIVE • Kruk: 1Q25 results, beat driven by Wonga, debt purchased segment in line, but slowing growth dynamics NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: rather weak 1Q25, but maintained outlook should provide some support NEGATIVE • Medicover: 1Q25 beat on admin costs and other financial income POSITIVE • Otokar: 1Q25 results – continuing losses on the operating and bottom lines • Tofas: weak set of results in 1Q25, as anti...
HEADLINES: • DO & CO: the art of the meal (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Diagnostyka: strong 4Q24, in line with the prelims NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: 1Q25 a little below 1Q25E expectations, but valuation (1Q25 P/BV at 1.2x) still very low NEUTRAL • MONETA Money Bank: 1Q25 results almost in line with expectations, ROE of 18% fully priced in by 1Q25 P/BV of 2.2x NEUTRAL • Metlen Energy & Metals: 1Q25 sales +31% yoy, to EUR 1.5bn, in line NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: strategy update, expands pipeline to...
HEADLINES: • Mo-BRUK: 4Q24 results miss expectations, on jumping SG&A costs NEGATIVE • Orange Polska: 1Q25 results – EBITDAaL up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus; 2025E guidance reiterated NEUTRAL • Kety: 1Q25 results and new strategy presentation call takeaways NEUTRAL • EMEA airlines: 1Q25 traffic; demand concerns vs. cheaper USD and oil • CEZ: ANO promising privatisation and lower fees NEGATIVE • Metlen Energy & Metals: sells Chilean RES for USD 815m (EUR 710m) POSITIVE • Polish banks: Trea...
HEADLINES: • Magyar Telekom: regulatory risk outweighs the growth story (downgraded to HOLD) • DataWalk: actual 4Q24 figures in line with the prelims; strong hikes in sales funnel and value of acquired contracts in 1Q25 POSITIVE • LPP: key takeaways from 4Q24 and the strategy update presentation POSITIVE • Text: key takeaways from the 4Q24-25 preliminary earnings call NEUTRAL • Colt CZ Group SE: management's initial comment on US tariffs NEGATIVE • European oil and gas monthly: March 2025 – refi...
We have downgraded our rating on Magyar Telekom (MTELEKOM) to HOLD (from Buy) and raised our price target (PT) to HUF 1,635/share (from HUF 1,432), implying 4% upside potential. After keeping our Buy for four years (with a 289% share price rally in that time), we close our call. We continue to appreciate MTELEKOM’s growth outlook (a 7.0% 2024-27E EBITDA CAGR) and generous investor remuneration (a c.10% dividend yield in 2025-26E), but see the current discount on its valuation vs. its peers as ju...
HEADLINES: • LPP: mediocre 4Q24 – EBIT 4-5% below expectations, but decent start to the year; FY25E guidance broadly maintained, and FY26-27E guidance of stable margins, despite major sales growth acceleration POSITIVE • EEMEA macro: US reciprocal tariff effects • Trade Estates: strong 2024 results POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 4Q24 results – CCS EBITDA in line with the consensus, but net income weak NEUTRAL • Eurocash: 4Q24 in line with the prelims NEUTRAL • Text: 4Q24-25 (calendar 1Q25) prelimi...
HEADLINES: • Mavi: a mispriced story with solid fundamentals (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Turkish banks: weather vs. climate (reinitiating on Akbank, Garanti, Isbank and Yapi Kredi with HOLDs) • Warsaw Stock Exchange: just move on up (stays BUY) • Benefit Systems: March sports cards addition surprises positively, mostly in Poland POSITIVE • MOL: announces dividend proposal of HUF 275/share NEUTRAL • EU macro: cohesion funds can be deployed for defence, housing and energy investments • Dino...
EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
We maintain our BUY on Warsaw Stock Exchange (GPW), with a slightly higher price target (PT) of PLN 56.5/share (from PLN 55.4), implying 24.6% upside from the current share price. Despite the significant ytd rally, we believe that Polish equities are still attractively valued and offer exposure to one of the fastest-growing economies in Europe, creating a compelling argument for a strong stock market performance in the years ahead. Equity turnover is set to be quite strong this year, which could...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: strategy focused on growth (stays BUY) • Ignitis Group: making headway (BUY - transfer of coverage) • PZU: 4Q24 well ahead of expectations, holding structure to be created within PZU group POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: 4Q24 results – EBITDA up 9% yoy, 9% above our forecast and 1% above the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: FY24 results review NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: 4Q24 earnings, and preview of a potential mega data centre NEUTRAL • Lamda Development: 4Q2...
We reiterate our BUY on Orange Polska (OPL) and raise our 12-month price target (PT) to PLN 10.40/share, from PLN 9.91, implying 16% upside potential. Despite our current preference for more cyclical high-beta names, we continue to see Orange Polska as one of the safest defensive bets among the Polish blue chips, offering stable growth and relatively attractive dividend yields in the mid-term (c.6-7% in 2025-26E, on our estimates). The equity story has become even clearer now that the 700MHz auc...
HEADLINES: • Warsaw Stock Exchange: strong delivery in 4Q24, due mainly to the lower costs booked POSITIVE • CD Projekt: 4Q24 EBIT 7% above our forecast; The Witcher 4 to be released after 2026E NEUTRAL • KazMunayGas: 4Q24 results – below expectations NEGATIVE • Ten Square Games: earnings call takeaways – focus on flagship games’ monetisation improvement in 2Q25E NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEUTRAL • Eurowag: takeaways from the 2H24 earnings call NEUTRAL...
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