HEADLINES: • Polish utilities: a flash in the pan (Enea and Tauron stay HOLD, PGE stays SELL) • Bank Millennium: posts solid 3Q25, all priced in NEUTRAL • Akbank: 3Q25 highlights – no major surprises, but NIM recovery remains slow and 2026E COR guidance appears cautious NEUTRAL • Kety: 3Q25 conference call highlights NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 3Q25 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: wins USD 146m from Gazprom POSITIVE • Türkiye macro: CBT delivers 100bps cut, in line with the co...
We have updated our forecasts for the Polish utilities, following the companies’ new strategies, and the strong results in 1H25, which are likely to deteriorate in 2H25E and 2026E. All three are planning record-high capex until 2035E (PGE PLN 235bn; Enea PLN 107.5bn; Tauron PLN 100bn), mitigated partly by the favourable regulated returns and the new support for conventional generation, plus the low-cost National Recovery Plan financing (0.5% interest). This supports the ambitious investment plan...
The Bulgarian equities market extended its midterm uptrend on Tuesday. The major indexes advanced between 0.11% and 0.54%, with SOFIX (1 082.77, +0.54%) leading the gains, driven by Sopharma (SFA, BGN 2.77, +2.21%) and Sirma Group (SGH, BGN 1.51, +1.34%), while Advance Terrafund (ATER, BGN 2.93, -0.34%) weighed on BGREIT (228.64, -0.07%). Bulgarian Stock Exchange (BSE, BGN 11.50, -0.86%) saw cooling demand after its price outpaced the proposed dividend, while Agria Group (AGH, BGN 15.00, -3.85%)...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: material upside locked up in Russia (stays BUY) • Theon International: secures EUR 300m long-term supply agreement with a NATO country POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: to receive an extra EUR 39m from its investment in Ellaktor POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (13-19 October) • Magyar Telekom: 3Q25E preview – 13% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 12 November) • Wirtualna Polska: 3Q25E preview – soft quarter, with 1% yoy pro-forma adjusted E...
HEADLINES: • Kazatomprom: soft metal still rocks (stays BUY) • Elbit Systems: strong execution at a rich valuation (stays HOLD) • MONETA Money Bank: management recommends CZK 4/share extra dividend due before the year-end POSITIVE • Mo-BRUK: conditions have been met for the acquisition of Eco Point PSA shares POSITIVE • Inter Cars: September sales growth accelerates to 13% yoy POSITIVE • Rainbow Tours: winter season pre-sales 5.7% higher yoy NEUTRAL • GTC: repurchases EUR 195m of 2026 bonds • Er...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: solid 3Q25 trading update, but still at a standstill in Spain NEUTRAL • OMV Petrom: 3Q25 trading statement POSITIVE • OMV: 3Q25 trading statement NEUTRAL • Bank Millennium: to book PLN 394m of FX mortgage saga provisions in 3Q25 NEUTRAL • Murapol: 734 apartments sold and 413 units handed over in 3Q25; 66% of our annual sales forecast met after 1-3Q25 NEGATIVE • Poland macro: NBP cuts again, on steady inflation • Romania macro: MPC on a prolonged pause • Theon International: si...
Cautious sentiment persisted on the Bulgarian equity market on Friday, as investors stayed on the sideline and the main indexes ended the week slightly changed. SOFIX (1 066.39, +0.07%) managed a modest gain, supported by a rebound in First Investment Bank (FIB, BGN 5.24, +1.55%), which helped offset weakness in Wiser Technologies (WISR, BGN 5.45, -2.68%) following the completion of its capital increase. Broader indexes drifted lower, with BGBX40 (193.62, -0.06%) and BGTR30 (946.48, -0.08%) weig...
EME Equity Market – September 2025 Romanian BET led in September, while Türkiye and Hungary lagged. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.1% in USD terms. The Romanian BET was the top performer, adding 3.6% in EUR terms; followed by the Czech PX (+3.2% mom) and the Polish WIG20 (+1.1% mom) (all in EUR terms); while there was a muted performance from the Greek ASE (+0.6% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 and the Hungarian BUX were the worst performing indices in September(...
The Bulgarian stock market showed a modest performance over the past week, with all major indexes ending nearly flat on Friday. The benchmark SOFIX edged up by 0.1% to close at 1 066.97, while the other key indexes also finished in positive territory, posting gains between 0.1% and 0.5%. Trading activity remained subdued, as block deals and bond trades contributed to a higher-than-average weekly turnover (+29.34%), despite a significant year-to-date decline in volumes (-71.9%). Gradus (GR6, BGN ...
The order was expected, as it has been discussed widely in the press in recent days, and comes after many years of negotiations. Without any information on price, we do not see the announcement as market moving, but we consider it broadly positive that the company managed to finalise its talks with Boeing constructively, as without the additional aircraft, it would not be able to continue to grow at the intended pace. Currently, Turkish Airlines is roughly the tenth largest airline group globall...
The order was expected, as it has been discussed widely in the press in recent days, and comes after many years of negotiations. Without any information on price, we do not see the announcement as market moving, but we consider it broadly positive that the company managed to finalise its talks with Boeing constructively, as without the additional aircraft, it would not be able to continue to grow at the intended pace. Currently, Turkish Airlines is roughly the tenth largest airline group globall...
The order was expected, as it has been discussed widely in the press in recent days, and comes after many years of negotiations. Without any information on price, we do not see the announcement as market moving, but we consider it broadly positive that the company managed to finalise its talks with Boeing constructively, as without the additional aircraft, it would not be able to continue to grow at the intended pace. Currently, Turkish Airlines is roughly the tenth largest airline group globall...
HEADLINES: • LPP: 2Q25 small beat vs. our ambitious expectations; 22% yoy sales growth in 3Q-to-date; FY25E guidance maintained POSITIVE • Rainbow Tours: disappointing 2Q25 results; strong cash flow, driven by prepayments, should support the 3Q25E results NEGATIVE • VIGO Photonics: 2Q25 results review - adj. EBITDA -84% yoy, below our estimates; order intake growth rose to 69% yoy NEUTRAL • Doosan Skoda Power: 2Q25 higher than expected, but a lower backlog, with only CZK 0.5bn in new contracts d...
The Bulgarian equities opened the shorter week on firmer footing, supported by broad-based buying. All major indexes gained between 0.13% and 0.47%, with advancers outnumbering decliners by a 7-to-5 margin. SOFIX was boosted by Bulgarian Stock Exchange (BSE, BGN 9.85, +3.14%), alongside strength in Elana Agrocredit (EAC, BGN 1.06, +1.92%), which rejoined the index, and Advance Terrafund (ATER, BGN 2.96, +1.37%). Additional gains in Stara Planina Hold (SPH, BGN 10.10, +3.06%) and Speedy (SPDY, BG...
HEADLINES: • Romanian Oil & Gas: still beyond the horizon (OMV Petrom downgraded to HOLD, Romgaz stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: Türkiye – twin deficits ameliorate, challenges persist • Huuuge Games: 2Q25 in line with expectations, USD 120m share buyback announced POSITIVE • Noval Property: 1H25 – FFO seems en route to exceed FY guidance POSITIVE • Auto Partner: 2Q25 earnings call takeaways – to test new small warehouse in Germany NEUTRAL • Bank Handlowy: to pay extra dividend in October POSIT...
In place of delays and cost overruns, the news on Neptun so far has been reassuring: first well spudded, platform under construction, and the start date unchanged. Nonetheless, we still have a two-year wait for completion. In the meantime, gas prices have been trending lower and oil prices are under pressure. Further deregulation in 2026E should free up the prices paid for gas, following power prices this year. We see the return of Russian gas as an outlier, which would crash gas prices. Romgaz ...
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