EME Equity Market – January 2023 Market performance – strong start to 2023 in Czechia and Greece; multi-month rally interrupted in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 3.2% mom in EUR terms and 4.6% mom in USD in January. The Czech PX and the Greek ASE were the best performers, posting double-digit gains of 12.3% and 10.0% mom in EUR terms, respectively. There were also very decent performances from Poland, Hungary and Romania, with gains of 5.5% mom, 5.5% mom and 4.7% mom in EUR terms, respe...
HEADLINES: • Icelandic Banks: the outliers (initiating on Arion banki with a BUY and Islandsbanki with a HOLD) • OTP Bank: should fare well, absent more negative events (upgraded to BUY) • LPP: 3Q22 below expectations on costs pressure; strong Black Friday sales; FY22E guidance maintained NEGATIVE • US macro: Fed sticking to its hawkish message • NLB Group: constitutional court annuls FX law • Addiko Bank: Slovenian Constitutional Court rejects retroactive Swiss Franc Law POSITIVE • Mytilin...
EME Equity Market – October 2022 Market performance – in a positive month across the board, Turkey outperforms yet again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 12.7% mom in EUR terms and 14.4% mom in USD. The ISE30 was, once again, the best-performing index in our coverage, adding 23.4% mom in EUR terms and 25.2% in local currency terms. All the other indices recorded positive performances as well, with the WIG (+14.8% EUR / 11.5% lcl), the BUX (+11.4% EUR / 8.5% lcl) and the ASE (+10.3% EUR) del...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 3Q22 results - EBITDAaL up 4% yoy, 5% above the consensus POSITIVE • Mytilineos: strong 3Q22, well ahead of our forecasts POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 3Q22 results - on track + guidance upgrade • Romanian real estate: postcard from Bucharest • Norilsk Nickel: 3Q22 operating results - 2022 run-rates close to guidance, cautious on 2023E NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: increases mobile contract B2C prices by 6-10% POSITIVE • CCC: bondholders approve changes in covenants NEUTRAL • Cyf...
HEADLINES: • Czech banks: Czech government presents windfall tax proposal • CEZ: disappointing windfall tax news NEGATIVE • Romanian energy: potential impact from EU emergency measures • LPP: key takeaways from the post-results conference • Jumbo: 9M22 sales +11% yoy, driven by strong domestic sales • Inter Cars: September sales growth stays at a solid 27% yoy POSITIVE • Norilsk Nickel: LME seeks market opinion on possible Russian metal ban NEUTRAL • Polish telecoms: mobile number portabilit...
AT: Utilities - Austrian government announces electricity price caps for households (negative) Oil&Gas - Oil price: G7 is getting serious about a price ceiling on Russian oil RO:Banca Transilvania - Banca Transilvania takes a loan of EUR 25 mn from the EBRD to support lending to businesses (neutral)
EME Equity Market – August 2022 Market performance – Turkey the biggest winner, in a predominantly bad month. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 1.2% mom in EUR and 2.8% mom in USD terms. Turkey’s ISE index outperformed all other indices, adding 24.9% mom in EUR terms and 25.1% in local currency terms. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 1.1% mom and 0.2% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Greece’s ASE Index had a muted performance and added only 0.6% mom. All the other indices across ...
HEADLINES: • Komercni Banka: strong 2Q22 results, 2022E outlook tweaked up, windfall tax risk still unknown NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: posts solid set of 2Q22 results POSITIVE • mBank: books strong gross profit (7% beat), but misses on bottom line due to tax rate reassessment NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 2Q22 - strong bottom line for another quarter • Alpha Bank: 2Q22 - positive trends across the board • Norilsk Nickel: 1H21 IFRS review - 6% below consensus on EBITDA, FCF slides by 25% yoy NEGATIVE • Polish...
EME Equity Market – July 2022 Market performance – markets mostly up during the month, but Russia’s MOEX down 9.4% in EUR terms. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 2.3% mom in EUR, but lost 0.5% mom in USD in July. The Greek ASE Index was the best performing benchmark, advancing 5.0% mom in EUR. Hungary’s benchmark, the BUX Index, added 4.4% mom and 6.5% mom in EUR and HUF terms, respectively. Romania’s BET Index gained 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.3% mom in local currency, while Turkey’s ISE20 added...
HEADLINES: • Pilulka Lekarny: blowing with the e-commerce wind (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Wizz Air: thoughts on capital increase post 1Q FY23 results, CASK and RASK comparison vs. RYA • Mytilineos: strong second quarter, 2H22E should be even better • Titan Cement: 2Q22 - price increases restoring profitability • Garanti: 2Q22 highlights - beat, with lower quality • Ford Otosan: 2Q22 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 2Q22 - another strong quarter POSITIVE • Arena Hosp...
AT: Andritz - Andritz acquried Bonetti group (neutral) AT: Andritz - Andritz to supply fiberline and lime kiln equipment to Sun Paper, China (neutral) AT: UBM - UBM sells project and construction management subsidiary Alba (neutral) AT: Wienerberger - Strong Q2 results trigger FY EBITDA guidance upgrade (positive) AT: Zumtobel - Better than expected Q4 results despite higher warranty costs, FY 21/22 guidance beat, implied FY 22/23 EBIT range in line with RBIe (positive) CZ: CEZ - CEZ...
HEADLINES: • LiveChat Software: 4Q21-22 (calendar 1Q22) results - EBITDA up 10% yoy, 8% below our estimates NEGATIVE • PCF Group: Outriders Worldslayer released, initial Steam reviews disappoint NEGATIVE • Nuclearelectrica: calls GMS to approve EUR 185m financing for EnergoNuclear NEGATIVE • OMV Petrom: the government adopts the Ordinance reducing fuel prices by RON 0.5/litre • Romgaz: transaction with Exxon to be completed at end-July 2022 NEUTRAL • Gazprom: AGM fails to approve its 2021 divid...
HEADLINES: • CCC: too fast, too furious (stays BUY) • Turkey macro: first genuinely bad confidence reading since COVID-19 • Romania macro: better than most • Greece macro: economic sentiment index drops sharply in June • Poland macro: economic sentiment down again, but consumers are the brighter spot • Czech Republic macro: confidence falls in June, but overall trend not too bad • Eurozone macro: June signals further mild improvements in inflation dynamics • Santander Bank Polska: to crea...
AT: Lenzing - Minimum dividend as of FY 23 raised to EUR 4.50 (positive) RO: Digi Communications - A joint venture between Digi and Citymesh won spectrum to operate in Belgium for EUR 114 mn (positive) RO: Medlife - Medlife consolidates its position in the West part of the country (positive) RO: OMV Petrom - The Supervisory Board approved the proposed special dividend and share capital increase (neutral) RU: Gazprom - Additional MET payments of RUB 416 bn could reduce 2022e DPS by RUB ...
EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
AT: IMMOFINANZ - CPI offer deadline to end on May 30, instead of May 28 (neutral) AT: Telekom Austria - Acquisition of Bulgarian ICT market leader (positive) AT: Verbund - Verbund announced special dividend of EUR 1.15 on top of 22e payout (neutral) HU - Introduction of windfall profit taxes esp. hitting the financial and energy sector (negative) PL: CCC - Q1 22/23 conference call stressed an increasing interest in lower priced products (neutral) RU: Gazprom - BoD recommends record high dividend...
HEADLINES: • Cognor Holding: record results could serve as re-rating trigger (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Hungary macro: taxes and budget consolidation • Alpha Bank: strong 1Q22 numbers, with upside risk for FY22E estimates POSITIVE • Kernel: 3Q22 EBITDA materially below our estimates, amid weak farming segment result NEGATIVE • Aegean Airlines: 1Q22 - small beat, fare levels exceed expectations, summer outlook encouraging POSITIVE • Public Power Corporation: 1Q22 earnings in line, still ...
CZ: CEZ - CEZ not to bid for RWE's storage assets in Czechia, press (neutral) PL: PKO BP - 9% wage hike offered to half of staff (neutral) RU: Polyus - New shareholder may add its representative to the board (neutral) RU: Tatneft - Proposed final DPS revealed weaker than expected payout for 2021 (negative)
MSCI May Index Review - Standard indices (STD) changes: DEL: Raiffeisen Bank Intl.; SmallCap indices (SC) changes: ADD: STRABAG SE, DEL: Zumtobel AT: AGRANA - Final FY 21/22 results match preliminary figures, FY 22/23e guidance confirmed (neutral) AT: AT&S - AT&S proposed dividend of EUR 0.90/share for 2021/22e (neutral) AT: Oesterreichische Post - Final Q1 22 numbers in line with prliminary figures, outlook reiterated (neutral) AT: Palfinger - Takeover of remaining 35% stake in French...
AT: Addiko Bank - Q1 22 profit slightly ahead of market expectations, CET 1 deterioration (neutral) AT: Wienerberger - Share buyback programme extended (positive) PL: mBank - Q1 22 net profit >30% ahead of consensus and RBI on robust set of results (positive) PL: PGNiG - The Board proposed not to distribute any dividends for 2021 (neutral) RO: Banca Transilvania, BRD-GSG - National Bank of Romania raises key interest rate by 75 bps to 375 bps (positive) RU: Gazprom - Ukraine halts t...
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