Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand stayed weak in Nov 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 42% yoy and second hand home prices in most cities falling. Land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou cooled, with most plots near reserve prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China property, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance. Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% o...
Company Results | Indorama Ventures (IVL/BUY/Bt17.6/Target: Bt27.00) IVL reported 3Q25 core profit of Bt177m and a net loss of Bt818m, both in line with expectations. Core EBITDA fell 15% qoq and 35% yoy to US$279m, pressured by weaker PET spreads and scheduled PO/MTBE maintenance. We see a gradual recovery starting from 4Q25 and stronger 2026 earnings on spread improvement, tariff benefits, and lower energy costs, targeting EBITDA ~US$1.4b. The planned IPOs of Indovinya (IOD) and Indovida (Pack...
Top Stories Company Results | Betagro (BTG TB/BUY/Bt16.70/Target: Bt20.00) Betagro’s 3Q25 core profit was reported at Bt1,180m (up 14% yoy, but down 54% qoq). The key pressure on 3Q25 earnings qoq was a lower gross margin due to softer swine prices. We observe an upward trend in domestic swine prices in Nov 25 and expect the trend to continue into 1H26. Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of Bt20.00. Company Results | CP Axtra (CPAXT TB/BUY/Bt20.00/Target: Bt24.00) 3Q25 earnings are we...
Company Update | Company Name (IVL TB/BUY/Bt18.50/Target: Bt27.00) IVL’s 3Q25 core profit is expected at Bt105m, outperforming market expectations of a core loss, driven by lower energy costs, steady utilisation, and higher MEG contribution. Net loss (~Bt1.0b) remains due to inventory and hedging losses. 4Q25 should see gradual recovery from stronger PET spreads and US tariff support. Looking ahead, 2026 core profit (~Bt8.5b) is projected on full tariff benefits, spread recovery, cost efficien...
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Leaning Towards Overseas Earnings Base Our portfolio returns underperformed the market by -2.8%, which moved up by 2.8% in October. We have a cautious outlook for the Thai equity market in November due to the low earnings season particularly among domestically driven sectors. This month, we decide to drop BCH and BDMS due to the lack of catalysts and add SCGP and MINT to our portfolio. Company Results | Thai Union Group (TU TB/HOLD/Bt12.90/Target: Bt13.20) ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
Highlights • We see a positive earnings impact from the new US reciprocal tariffs, effective 8 Sep 25, on PET. We are estimating an EBITDA contribution of US$50m per year, reflecting 40% of IVL’s total capacity in the US. • We continue to expect a sharp earnings recovery in 3Q-4Q25, with quarterly net profit likely to exceed Bt2.0b, supported by healthy spreads in PET, higher production volumes and incremental earnings from Essel Propack. • Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt27.00.
Top Stories Company Updates | Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt22.10/Target: Bt27.00) IVL is set to benefit strongly from US reciprocal tariffs on PET, effective 8 Sep 25, adding an estimated US$50m EBITDA annually. Lower TTF-linked gas costs further support margins. We expect net profit above Bt2.0b/quarter in 2H25, aided by tariff gains, higher volumes, and Essel Propack contribution. Additional upside stems from land sales and asset monetisation. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt27.00,...
Greater China Economics | Inflation China’s August CPI returned to deflation at -0.4% yoy (-0.4ppt), below consensus, led by a sharper fall in food prices (-4.3% yoy) which includes a 16.1% yoy drop in pork prices. In contrast, core CPI rose to a ytd high of 0.9% (+0.1ppt), underpinned by services inflation. PPI deflation eased to -2.9% yoy (+0.7ppt), reflecting upstream stabilisation in mining and raw materials. The CPI-PPI divergence underscores fragile consumer demand. Broader policy supp...
IVL reported a narrower net loss of Bt521m in 2Q25 from a loss of Bt1.3b in 1Q25 and a huge loss of Bt23.0b in 2Q24. However, core profit turned positive at Bt595m, vs a loss of Bt975m in 1Q25, in line with our estimate. We see signs of earnings recovery taking shape in 2H25 and beyond, with upside from potential asset monetisation. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt27.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results COM7 (COM7 TB/BUY/Bt24.50/Target: Bt29.50) 2Q25: Better-than-expected earnings. Electricity Generating (EGCO TB/BUY/Bt113.00/Target: Bt125.00) 2Q25: Results beat expectations, with yield remaining impressive. GFPT (GFPT TB/BUY/Bt10.10/Target: Bt15.50) 2Q25: Earnings beat expectations on solid profitability. Hana Microelectronics (HANA TB/HOLD/Bt22.60/Target: Bt20.00) ...
We see signs of earnings recovery taking shape in 2H25 and beyond. Following a huge loss in 1Q25, we believe the worst is behind IVL. Improvement across key product chains, accelerated cost transformation, and upside from potential asset monetisation position IVL for a re-rating. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt27.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Retail Staple retailers remain resilient amid economic uncertainty. Results Muangthai Capital (MTC TB/BUY/Bt38.50/Target: Bt52.00) 2Q25: Earnings in line; robust asset quality outlook. True Corporation (TRUE TB/BUY/Bt11.90/Target: Bt15.70) 2Q25: Results in line with our estimates but below consensus. Update Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt22.40/Target: Bt27.00) 2Q25 Preview: Gearing up for a stronger 2H25 SCGP (SCGP TB/BUY/Bt18.10/Target...
GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Modest recovery with construction rebound. Sector Macau Gaming Jun 25 GGR beat consensus by 9%; GGR has regained momentum in recent months. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights MAP Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp700) Expanding active lifestyle retail business; 1Q25 NPAT up 21% yoy. MAL...
In 1Q25, earnings under our coverage are at Bt201.14b (-0.1% yoy, +46.2% qoq). The qoq increase was due to seasonality. The banking, telecommunications and consumer staples sectors reported remarkable results. For 2025 we reduce earnings growth by 3.8%, but opportunities remain in domestic and external plays. Overall, we lower 2025F EPS to Bt80 from Bt94and our SET target to 1,280 (from 1,500 in 1Q25) based on 16.0x forward PE. Top picks are ADVANC, RATCH, BCH, IVL, PTTGC.
IVL reported an adjusted net loss of Bt975m, reversing from profits of Bt701m in 4Q24 and Bt2.27b in 1Q24. Following the analyst meeting, we reaffirm our positive outlook on IVL in 2025. IVL is a classic recovery play with a strong balance sheet, disciplined capital strategy and exposure to global petrochemical demand recovery. At current levels, risk-reward is attractive enough to buy IVL. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt24.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy US-China Negotiations Progress in Geneva, Switzerland. Positive sign for trade negotiations from US and China. Results Banpu (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt4.90/Target: Bt4.80) 1Q25: Net loss narrows qoq. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt20.40/Target: Bt24.00) 1Q25: Weak quarter, but recovery in sight. Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt27.25/Target: Bt27.00) 1Q25: Net profit in line with our expectations. Update Asset World...
IVL reported a net profit of Bt1.0b in 4Q24, a significant yoy improvement from a loss of Bt12.4b in 4Q23 but down 27% qoq compared with 3Q24. Excluding one-offs, core profit was Bt713, down 76% qoq but turning from a loss of Bt777m in 4Q23. IVL’s 2024 core profit rose 4% yoy to Bt6.1b. Following the analyst meeting, we reaffirm our positive outlook on IVL in 2025 with expect 67% yoy growth in core profit. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt30.00.
Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt23.90/Target: Bt35.00) 4Q24: Net income misses expectations but still robust yoy and qoq. AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt8.70/Target: Bt11.30) 4Q24: Earnings in line; aggressive strategy for 2025. Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/BUY/Bt183.50/Target: Bt232.00) 4Q24: Strong 4Q24 earnings attributable to tax benefit. Hana Microelectronics (HANA TB/HOLD/Bt20.10/Target: Bt22.00) 4Q24: Net loss from high impairment. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt19.30/Target: Bt30.00)...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....
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