ASEAN Gems Corporate Highlights | Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt19.70/Target: Bt25.00) IVL met regional fund managers at our Asian Gems Conference in Taiwan last week, and with discussions were focused on Chinese overcapacity and the potential impact from the Middle East tensions. Management expects Chinese capacity additions to peak in 2026, which could ease industry supply pressure. Geopolitical disruptions may also support spreads through higher oil prices and freight costs. Meanwhile, mana...
Top Stories ASEAN Gems Corporate Highlights | Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt19.70/Target: Bt25.00) IVL met regional fund managers at our Asian Gems Conference in Taiwan last week, and with discussions were focused on Chinese overcapacity and the potential impact from the Middle East tensions. Management expects Chinese capacity additions to peak in 2026, which could ease industry supply pressure. Geopolitical disruptions may also support spreads through higher oil prices and freight costs. Me...
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity Economic activity in 2M26 broadly surprised to the upside. Industrial production accelerated to 6.3% yoy, while retail sales recovered to 2.8% yoy. FAI ytd rebounded to 1.8% yoy, beating expectations of a contraction, supported by strong infrastructure spending and a marked improvement in property FAI ytd to −11.1% yoy. However, it remains to be seen if the rebound is sustainable, as February’s PMI remained in contractionary territory at 49.0. Se...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: March Conviction Calls Chinese equities consolidated further in February, with the HSI and MSCI China Index declining 2.8% mom and 5.6% mom, respectively. March is expected to be volatile, as there are signs that the Middle East conflict could last for a while. We focus on names which have greater domestic exposure, adding Anta, China Duty Free, FII, Futu, Kuaishou and Tencent to our BUY list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: Rotating To Commodities Amid M...
Company Results | Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt22.90/Target: Bt25.00) IVL reported a 4Q25 net loss of Bt4.7b, with core loss at Bt2.9b as weaker spreads and lower utilisation pressured margins. Production declined 4% qoq to 3.04m tonnes, while core EBITDA/tonne fell to US$73. 2025 recorded a core loss of Bt3.1b versus a Bt6.2b profit in 2024. Management declared a Bt0.175 dividend (0.8% yield). We believe 4Q25 marks the trough, with 2026 recovery supported by fewer shutdowns, US PET tariff be...
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Focusing On Stocks That Dose Not Impact Form Geopolitical Our portfolio returns underperformed the market in Feb 26 (+10.9% vs +15.3%). We have a positive view on the SET Index as benefits from the investment rotation away from the treasury market and higher crude oil prices should support energy stocks. We take profit on ADVANC and IVL. We add AOT, CRC, and HANA to our portfolio. Company Results | Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB/HOLD/Bt20.40/Target: Bt21.0...
Greater China Company Results | Yum China Holdings, Inc (9987 HK/NOT RATED/HK$392.40) In 4Q25, YUMC’s total revenue reached US$2,823m, up 9% yoy. Total system sales grew 7% yoy, with a 3% increase in same-store sales. Operating profit rose 25% yoy to US$187m, with operating margin at 6.6% (+80bp). For 1Q26, management targets positive SSS. It aims to maintain flat yoy restaurant margin and operating profit margin on a high base. For 2026, it expects to open more than 1,900 net new stores, wi...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: February Conviction Calls Chinese equities recovered in January, with the HSI and MSCI China rising 6.9% and 5.0% mom respectively. Given the supportive macro policy environment, we maintain a constructive view on the markets despite the risk of further volatility in February. Accordingly, we are adding Alibaba, Ganfeng Lithium, and Minth to our BUY list, and Meituan to our SELL list. Indonesia Strategy | Alpha Picks: From MSCI Shock To Policy-Driven Rebala...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property CRIC data show that the top 100 developers’ contracted sales fell 24.7% yoy in Jan 26, while new-home sales in 28 major cities declined 36% yoy. Second-hand transactions in three Tier 1 cities rose 1% yoy. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT but deepening industry downturn leads to rising possibility of policy support, supporting selective exposure. CR Land remains our top pick, with P/B at 1SD below the five-year mean, and PE and yield near the five-year average....
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December pic...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: January Conviction Calls Chinese equities remained in consolidation through December, with the HSI and MSCI China down 0.9% mom and 1.5% mom, respectively, despite last week’s window dressing narrowing losses. Policy signals from the Economic Work Conference broadly met expectations. Looking ahead, we are constructive on 1Q26, supported by a favourable global liquidity cycle and potential macro supportive measures in China. We retain most of our December...
Greater China Sector Update | China Property Demand stayed weak in Nov 25, with new-home sales in 28 cities down 42% yoy and second hand home prices in most cities falling. Land auctions in Shanghai and Hangzhou cooled, with most plots near reserve prices. We maintain UNDERWEIGHT on China property, with CR Land as our top pick for its consistent earnings outperformance. Sector Update | Macau Gaming Macau’s Nov 25 GGR reached MOP 21.1b, down 12% mom but up 14% yoy, and recovering to 92% o...
Company Results | Indorama Ventures (IVL/BUY/Bt17.6/Target: Bt27.00) IVL reported 3Q25 core profit of Bt177m and a net loss of Bt818m, both in line with expectations. Core EBITDA fell 15% qoq and 35% yoy to US$279m, pressured by weaker PET spreads and scheduled PO/MTBE maintenance. We see a gradual recovery starting from 4Q25 and stronger 2026 earnings on spread improvement, tariff benefits, and lower energy costs, targeting EBITDA ~US$1.4b. The planned IPOs of Indovinya (IOD) and Indovida (Pack...
Top Stories Company Results | Betagro (BTG TB/BUY/Bt16.70/Target: Bt20.00) Betagro’s 3Q25 core profit was reported at Bt1,180m (up 14% yoy, but down 54% qoq). The key pressure on 3Q25 earnings qoq was a lower gross margin due to softer swine prices. We observe an upward trend in domestic swine prices in Nov 25 and expect the trend to continue into 1H26. Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of Bt20.00. Company Results | CP Axtra (CPAXT TB/BUY/Bt20.00/Target: Bt24.00) 3Q25 earnings are we...
Company Update | Company Name (IVL TB/BUY/Bt18.50/Target: Bt27.00) IVL’s 3Q25 core profit is expected at Bt105m, outperforming market expectations of a core loss, driven by lower energy costs, steady utilisation, and higher MEG contribution. Net loss (~Bt1.0b) remains due to inventory and hedging losses. 4Q25 should see gradual recovery from stronger PET spreads and US tariff support. Looking ahead, 2026 core profit (~Bt8.5b) is projected on full tariff benefits, spread recovery, cost efficien...
Top Stories Strategy | Alpha Picks: Leaning Towards Overseas Earnings Base Our portfolio returns underperformed the market by -2.8%, which moved up by 2.8% in October. We have a cautious outlook for the Thai equity market in November due to the low earnings season particularly among domestically driven sectors. This month, we decide to drop BCH and BDMS due to the lack of catalysts and add SCGP and MINT to our portfolio. Company Results | Thai Union Group (TU TB/HOLD/Bt12.90/Target: Bt13.20) ...
Greater China Strategy | Alpha Picks: November Conviction Calls HSI and MSCI China fell 3.5%/4.0% mom in October, dragged by renewed US-China trade tensions and lack of fresh policy signals from the 4th Plenum. We remain constructive in the medium term but expect further consolidation as uncertainties persist. The best performer among our picks was SELL-rated Li Auto (+21.4% mom). For November, we rotate into oversold names with near-term upside: add AIA, LINK REIT, NAURA, Pinduoduo, PICC P&...
Highlights • We see a positive earnings impact from the new US reciprocal tariffs, effective 8 Sep 25, on PET. We are estimating an EBITDA contribution of US$50m per year, reflecting 40% of IVL’s total capacity in the US. • We continue to expect a sharp earnings recovery in 3Q-4Q25, with quarterly net profit likely to exceed Bt2.0b, supported by healthy spreads in PET, higher production volumes and incremental earnings from Essel Propack. • Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt27.00.
Top Stories Company Updates | Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt22.10/Target: Bt27.00) IVL is set to benefit strongly from US reciprocal tariffs on PET, effective 8 Sep 25, adding an estimated US$50m EBITDA annually. Lower TTF-linked gas costs further support margins. We expect net profit above Bt2.0b/quarter in 2H25, aided by tariff gains, higher volumes, and Essel Propack contribution. Additional upside stems from land sales and asset monetisation. Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt27.00,...
Greater China Economics | Inflation China’s August CPI returned to deflation at -0.4% yoy (-0.4ppt), below consensus, led by a sharper fall in food prices (-4.3% yoy) which includes a 16.1% yoy drop in pork prices. In contrast, core CPI rose to a ytd high of 0.9% (+0.1ppt), underpinned by services inflation. PPI deflation eased to -2.9% yoy (+0.7ppt), reflecting upstream stabilisation in mining and raw materials. The CPI-PPI divergence underscores fragile consumer demand. Broader policy supp...
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