GREATER CHINA Economics PMI Modest recovery with construction rebound. Sector Macau Gaming Jun 25 GGR beat consensus by 9%; GGR has regained momentum in recent months. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights MAP Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA IJ/NOT RATED/Rp700) Expanding active lifestyle retail business; 1Q25 NPAT up 21% yoy. MAL...
In 1Q25, earnings under our coverage are at Bt201.14b (-0.1% yoy, +46.2% qoq). The qoq increase was due to seasonality. The banking, telecommunications and consumer staples sectors reported remarkable results. For 2025 we reduce earnings growth by 3.8%, but opportunities remain in domestic and external plays. Overall, we lower 2025F EPS to Bt80 from Bt94and our SET target to 1,280 (from 1,500 in 1Q25) based on 16.0x forward PE. Top picks are ADVANC, RATCH, BCH, IVL, PTTGC.
IVL reported an adjusted net loss of Bt975m, reversing from profits of Bt701m in 4Q24 and Bt2.27b in 1Q24. Following the analyst meeting, we reaffirm our positive outlook on IVL in 2025. IVL is a classic recovery play with a strong balance sheet, disciplined capital strategy and exposure to global petrochemical demand recovery. At current levels, risk-reward is attractive enough to buy IVL. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt24.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Strategy US-China Negotiations Progress in Geneva, Switzerland. Positive sign for trade negotiations from US and China. Results Banpu (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt4.90/Target: Bt4.80) 1Q25: Net loss narrows qoq. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt20.40/Target: Bt24.00) 1Q25: Weak quarter, but recovery in sight. Thai Oil (TOP TB/HOLD/Bt27.25/Target: Bt27.00) 1Q25: Net profit in line with our expectations. Update Asset World...
IVL reported a net profit of Bt1.0b in 4Q24, a significant yoy improvement from a loss of Bt12.4b in 4Q23 but down 27% qoq compared with 3Q24. Excluding one-offs, core profit was Bt713, down 76% qoq but turning from a loss of Bt777m in 4Q23. IVL’s 2024 core profit rose 4% yoy to Bt6.1b. Following the analyst meeting, we reaffirm our positive outlook on IVL in 2025 with expect 67% yoy growth in core profit. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt30.00.
Results Amata Corporation (AMATA TB/BUY/Bt23.90/Target: Bt35.00) 4Q24: Net income misses expectations but still robust yoy and qoq. AP Thailand (AP TB/BUY/Bt8.70/Target: Bt11.30) 4Q24: Earnings in line; aggressive strategy for 2025. Bumrungrad Hospital (BH TB/BUY/Bt183.50/Target: Bt232.00) 4Q24: Strong 4Q24 earnings attributable to tax benefit. Hana Microelectronics (HANA TB/HOLD/Bt20.10/Target: Bt22.00) 4Q24: Net loss from high impairment. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt19.30/Target: Bt30.00)...
GREATER CHINA Strategy Alpha Picks: December Conviction Calls Add Desay, Meituan, Mengniu, Tencent, and Trip.com to our BUY list. Take profit from CATL. Update CR Mixc Lifestyle (1209 HK/BUY/HK$29.20/Target: HK$32.15) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. China Resources Land (1109 HK/BUY/HK$23.25/Target:HK$32.40) Takeaways from reverse roadshow in Shenzhen. Small/Mid Cap Highlights Regina Miracle (2199 HK/Not Rated/HK$2....
IVL delivered stronger earnings growth in 3Q24 with net profit up 670% yoy to Bt1.5b and core profit of Bt3.0b, up 678% yoy and 145% qoq, beating our and market estimates. IVL’s 9M24 core profit rose 44% yoy to Bt5.5b. Following the analyst meeting, we reaffirm our positive outlook on IVL in 4Q24-2025 with an expected 114% yoy growth in core profit in 2025. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt32.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt25.75/Target: Bt32.00) 3Q24: Beating estimates with positive changes. Major Cineplex (MAJOR TB/BUY/Bt14.10/Target: Bt19.00) 3Q24: Better-than-expected earnings; 2025 earnings to reach pre-COVID-19 levels.
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Channel checks and observations of Shanghai primary market. INDONESIA Update Astra International (ASII IJ/BUY/Rp4,970/Target: Rp6,000): Should be able to cope with intense competition. MALAYSIA Sector Plantation: MPOB’s Oct 24 data showed a slow inventory rebuild due to higher exports and declining production. Results CTOS Digital (CTOS MK/BUY/RM1.14/Target: RM1.51): 3Q24: Results within expectations. While management has revised its internal guidance for 2025, w...
IVL will report its 3Q24 results on 11 November. With more positive management guidance on the company’s operating efficiency and asset optimisation programme, we see increasing upside potential for consensus earnings estimate after the company releases its 3Q24 results. We further raise our earnings estimate and increase target price to Bt32.00. Maintain BUY.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Banking 3Q24: Results within market expectation; credit costs improve as expected. Update Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt25.00/Target: Bt32.00) 3Q24 results preview: Positive operating outlook WHA Corporation (WHA TB/BUY/Bt5.65/Target: Bt6.50) 3Q24 results preview: Earnings should increase yoy on improved margins, but decline qoq due to w...
GREATER CHINA Results Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing (388 HK/BUY/HK$314.80/Target: HK$364.00) 3Q24: Risk-and-reward is more balanced. Upgrade to BUY. Han’s Laser (002008 CH/HOLD/Rmb24.42/Target: Rmb22.70) 3Q24: Net profit misses, but visibility of recovery improving. Downgrade to HOLD. New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU US/BUY/US$62.15/Target: US$85.00) 1QFY25: In line; moderated growth outlook in 2QFY25 on low seasonality. Update Xtep International Holdings (...
IVL announced its 2Q24 results with a net loss of Bt23.0b as expected, impacted by a huge impairment and expense provision of Bt25.0b. Excluding one-offs, core profit was Bt1.2b (-62% yoy and -1% qoq), slightly below our and market estimates. We expect core profit to continue recovering in 2H24. Maintain BUY. Target price: Bt22.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results BEC World PCL (BEC TB/BUY/Bt3.56/Target: Bt4.20) 2Q24: Clearer earnings visibility ahead; upgrade to BUY Betagro (BTG TB/BUY/Bt22.60/Target: Bt26.50) 2Q24: Bottom line turns to profit. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt17.80/Target: Bt22.50) 2Q24: A huge loss as expected, but earnings should have bottomed out. PTT (PTT TB/BUY/Bt33.25/Target: Bt37.00) ...
IVL will report its 2Q24 results on 8 August. We expect its performance to be hurt by a huge impairment of US$660m-680m, which will result in IVL posting a record net loss of Bt22.3b in 2Q24. However, we expect investors to be more willing to buy on expectations of a fundamental recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Target price: Bt22.50.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Update Banpu (BANPU TB/HOLD/Bt4.90/Target: Bt5.00) Expect 2Q24 net profit to drop qoq. BTS Group Holdings (BTS TB/HOLD/Bt4.06/Target: Bt4.47) Slightly negative on BTS’ transaction deal. Indorama Ventures (IVL TB/BUY/Bt19.30/Target: Bt22.50) 2Q24 results preview: Expect a huge loss, but earnings should bottom out in 2Q24. Upgrade to BUY. Krung Thai Bank (KTB TB/BUY/Bt17.80/Target: Bt21.50) Maintaining good asset quality a...
GREATER CHINA Update LINK REIT (823 HK/BUY/HK$33.55/Target: HK$42.76): Takeaways from visits to Hong Kong and Shenzhen malls near the border. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Underperformance in Jul 24: Our picks are BBNI, BMRI, BBRI, EXCL, CTRA, BBTN, CMRY, SIDO and JSMR. Results Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ/HOLD/Rp2,470/Target: Rp2,500): 2Q24: Rising raw material costs impact gross margin. Telkom Indonesia (TLKM IJ/BUY/Rp2,850/Target: Rp4,200): 2Q24: 6% yoy growth in core profit; to improve cost effi...
GREATER CHINA Economics Trade May exports grew 7.6%; imports moderated. Sector Property Property prices further drop after 17 May 24 policy combo; effective implementation of policies crucial for market stabilisation. INDONESIA Sector Telecommunications Pos...
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