Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK605.00) - Poised for re-rating

While underlying operations softened (Wilhelmsen Maritime Services (WMS) missed our Q4 estimates, partly offset by ongoing strength in New Energy), our focus remains on future cash flow from the Wallenius Wilhelmsen (WAWI) stake in the coming years. Its rapidly declining NIBD could in our view pave the way for more buybacks to address the material discount. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK605 (650).

A playbook on US tariffs

As a response to recent news flow of potential tariffs and countermeasures, we highlight the main implications for the shipping sectors we cover. While the specifics remain uncertain, the below input might assist in gauging potential impacts of the disruptions.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates following the Q3 report. The stock is still trading at a significant discount to underlying value in the company; however, recent events have shown it is willing to address this (e.g. through buybacks), as cash flow continues to compound, lending solid support to the investment case, in our view. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have raised our target price from NOK620 to NOK650.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding Asa: 1 director

A director at Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding Asa bought 600 shares at 388.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ...

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK620.00) - ~NOK280/share net cash...

A strong operating quarter and continued strength from its main investments lead us to believe there is potential for up to NOK280/share in net cash inflows to WWI by end-2026, which in our view should contribute to meaningful shareholder distributions. The company continues to build long-term value potential through various initiatives and investments, and we find the considerable value in the shares an attractive proposition. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK620 (575...

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q1 report and our forecast revisions for Wallenius Wilhelmsen (WAWI). We still find the WAWI investment more than covers WWI’s current share price (112% of its market cap), and believe WAWI is sufficiently overcapitalised to propose up to NOK25/share in an extraordinary dividend on top of the ‘normal’ NOK10/share we expect in Q2. If so, WWI would be set to receive an impressive dividend equal to 33% of its market cap (NOK128/share). We do not consider ...

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

A brewing challenge for the yards

Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK555.00) - Cash should seep throu...

As we expect prosperous years ahead for car carrier shipping, we forecast strong, steady cash flow for Wilh. Wilhelmsen (WWI). Even after increasing our investment estimates, we arrive at a considerable overshoot that should find its way to investors at some point. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK555 (530).

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK530.00) - Deep value with strong...

We find deep value in Wilh. Wilhelmsen (WWI), with the share price at a 53% discount to our current SOTP, not even fully covering its NOK354/share ownership stake in Wallenius Wilhelmsen (WAWI). While we do not expect the gap to narrow considerably in the near term, we find comfort in the NOK110/share cash flow to equity by end-2025e. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK530 (465).

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK465.00) - Suggests the start of ...

A soft quarter in New Energy was offset by strong results in Maritime Services, and a very positive impact from favourable markets on the strategic holdings. The discount to our SOTP remains ~50%, despite the recent attempt at buybacks in Treasure, but we believe further upside potential in the WAWI stake along with more corporate action could narrow it. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK465 (455).

Northern Lights

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK455.00) - Strong Q1; still ~50% ...

Q1 was strong, prompting us to raise our top-line and EBITDA forecasts, but the positives were more than offset by lower expectations for Wallenius Wilhelmsen. Despite the main shareholdings taking a hit, the stock remains ~50% below our current SOTP, signalling considerable value potential in our view. Pressure has been building for initiatives to close the value gap; in the meantime we like its exposure to car carriers, attractive valuation, and tailwinds for its core business. We reiterate ou...

Generally an optimistic bunch

DNB hosted its 16th annual Energy & Shipping Conference. On day two, we hosted sector panels and presentations for dry bulk, LPG, car carriers, LNG and tankers with senior management representatives from 29 shipping companies. A resurging Chinese economy coupled with tight supply outlook, strong demand growth potential and regulations putting pressure to remove older vessels were among the common themes. Overall, the discussions showcase optimism across the sectors.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK455.00) - A freak wave of cash f...

The proposed NOK10 DPS for 2022 deviates from an expected ~NOK36/share free cash flow for 2023, which in our view signals an appetite for growth after a decade of limited cash flow from its main investment. With an attractively placed asset base to scale for growth, we see the core issue as a substantial discount to its SOTP. Hoarding cash will hardly help, and we have cut our target price to NOK455 (462), while we reiterate our BUY.

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK462.00) - Car shipping and offsh...

We have only slightly adjusted our overall forecasts following the Q3 results, as our estimate revisions across Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding’s (WWI) divisions largely offset each other, and we still believe the company is undervalued. Its exposure to prosperous car shipping and offshore markets leaves the company well-positioned for growth, in our view. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK462 (392).

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK392.00) - Look under the bonnet

Q2 saw an ongoing recovery across business segments, and we continue to find Maritime Services and New Energy well placed to benefit from ongoing momentum in their sectors. WAWI’s market cap has dropped 22% in recent days, but we expect a meaningful rebound once investor sentiment realigns with the fundamental outlook and valuation, leaving considerable upside potential for WWI shareholders. We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to NOK392 (408).

Wilh. Wilhelmsen Holding (Buy, TP: NOK407.86) - Underlying value to ma...

We are positive on the car shipping outlook due to limited fleet growth and greater High & Heavy volumes, which should benefit WWI’s underlying holdings. In our view, this represents considerable upside potential to our current SOTP valuation, should WAWI achieve our target price. Maritime Services has seen good activity levels with a faster recovery, and we still see upside potential on further activity levels. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK408 (346).