reports
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - PAO 2025-27: Rationalisation Across Three Regions
PAO 2025-27: Rationalisation Across Three Regions Despite being published remarkably later than usual, the PAO offers new insights, in particular activity outlook across three regions and clearer plant turnaround distinction between Upstream/Downstream/Gas segments. Aligning with our view, there are cuts in exploration-stage and JU rig outlook, but maintenance demand is largely intact. Plant turnaround is the biggest winner in our opinion, but we identified 2Q25, 2Q26 and 1Q27 as critical period...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kong Ho Meng
- Stevanus Juanda
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, January 31, 2025
INDONESIA Update Mayora Indah (MYOR IJ/HOLD/Rp2,500/Target: Rp2,300) Margins will still be negatively affected in 4Q24 and 1H25. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas PAO aligns with our view on cuts in exploration/JU rig demand, but maintenance demand remains intact. Plant turnaround may be the biggest winner, but with high execution risks in 2Q25, 2Q26 and 1Q27. SINGAPORE Sector REITs ...
BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
5681 PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD.
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
3816 MISC BHD
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
UZMA UZMA BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
BAB BUMI ARMADA BERHAD
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
MMHE MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY EN
DLUM DELEUM BERHAD
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ANE CORPORACION ACCIONA ENERGIAS RENOVABLES SA
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
DCRU DIGITAL CORE REIT MANAGEMENT PTE. LTD.
Z29 029 GROUP SE
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - Sarawak And Petronas To Continue Strategic Collaboration I...
Sarawak And Petronas To Continue Strategic Collaboration In Gas Industry With Petros As Sole Gas Aggregator Both Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Sarawak Premier Abang Johari (Abang Jo) released statements that there are no more issues and ambiguity in policy matters related to Petronas Nasional Bhd (Petronas), the country’s national oil company, and Petroleum Sarawak Bhd (Petros), Sarawak’s sole gas aggregator, regarding Sarawak’s gas distribution rights. Petros assumed the sole gas aggregator ...
- Kong Ho Meng
Sapura Energy (SAPE MK) - 9MFY25: Weakness On PLSV Reaches The Bottom
9MFY25: Weakness On PLSV Reaches The Bottom SAPE’s 9MFY25 core profit was in line, despite weaknesses seen in the rig and JV PLSV setbacks before transitioning to new multi-year contracts. Due to the high subsea demand, Sapura Esmeralda secured additional backlog for three months, at spot rates lucrative enough to consider more market opportunities. Supported by Paratus Energy’s outlook upgrade, our contrarian view is that the PLSV will anchor SAPE’s FCF recovery out of PN17 eventually. Retain B...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Gigi Cheuk
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kate Luang
- Ken Lee
- Kong Ho Meng
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Stevanus Juanda
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, December 13, 2024
GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: Crystal International: Eyeing Stock Connect inclusion in Mar 25. Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales growth accelerated to 34% yoy last week, beating estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, Fuyao and Desay. INDONESIA Update Aspirasi Hidup Indonesia (ACES IJ/BUY/Rp825/Target: Rp1,200): We prefer ACES’ valuation to that of Mr DIY. MALAYSIA Results Bermaz Auto (BAUTO MK/HOLD/RM2.04/Target: RM2.10): 1HFY25: Results below expectations; lower...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - IWCS Launched As Petronas’ Third Edition Of A True Industr...
IWCS Launched As Petronas’ Third Edition Of A True Industry Collaboration Petronas last week launched the IWCS contracts based on enhanced terms from the previous IWS model, and the four packages were awarded to 34 panel contractors. Expectedly so, the IWCS beneficiaries in our coverage are chosen, including Deleum, Uzma, Velesto Energy and SAPE. Other non-rated stocks like Reservoir Link and T7 Global (NR) also gained. Although the contract values were not revealed, the contract winners are exp...
- Kong Ho Meng
Sapura Energy (SAPE MK) - 1HFY25: Temporarily Weak Rig EBITDA, And Las...
1HFY25: Temporarily Weak Rig EBITDA, And Last Quarter Of E&P Earnings SAPE’s 1HFY25 core profit came in above expectations. While the rig division remains challenged, as long as SAPE maintains execution, we foresee the JV Brazilian PLSV becoming the star segment and providing a major boost to SAPE’s future income and reset plans. On that note, the downside risk at this price level is very limited. Investors who value transparency can attain better guidance from the PLSV partner, Paratus Energy. ...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Damon Shen
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kong Ho Meng
- Llelleythan Tan Tan
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, September 27, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results New World Development (17 HK/SELL/HK$8.19/Target: HK$7.02) FY24: Temporarily halts dividends; recovery of profitability takes time. Update Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$3.90/Target: HK$4.70) Non-drug healthcare products and marketing business to drive growth in FY25-27. Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$95.75/Target: HK$90.00) Key highlights from Baidu Cloud Intelligence Conference 2024. INDONESIA Update Bank Negara Ind...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - FPSO Outlook Weighed Against Energy Transition
FPSO Outlook Weighed Against Energy Transition While the FPSO industry benefits from an all-time high backlog, we think players should sharpen their focus on decarbonisation/clean energy pathways, as we foresee diverging patterns in this “new field growth” depending on various factors. For example, it seems solar and wind will not be part of Bumi Armada and Yinson Production (the FPSO arm), even though wind is officially under SBM Offshore. MISC remains as a green transportation arm though it ma...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - Cautiousness in Business Enquiries: Signs Of Local O&G Cap...
Cautiousness in Business Enquiries: Signs Of Local O&G Capex Slowdown? Geopolitical risk may be the norm in the new world order, but we think this has been happening in Malaysia for the past six years. The highlight of this saga is when Petros took over the role of sole gas aggregator of Sarawak’s gas business, followed by major changes in Petronas’ top leadership roles. Although nothing is confirmed, channel checks suggest activities are slowing down. We advocate defensive stocks that are diver...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - Malaysia’s Positioning As Regional CCS Storage Hub
Malaysia’s Positioning As Regional CCS Storage Hub As we predicted, 2024 may be the year to evaluate Malaysia/Petronas’ CCS milestone. This is because Asia’s CCS projects are maturing, as major industries (ie emitters) take concrete action on emission targets. Malaysia is a clear beneficiary as a CCS storage hub, not only due to its local O&G fields and industries, but also strategically overseas emitters especially Japan and Korea. MISC, our sector top pick, is also a clear CCS beneficiary (LCO...
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Stevanus Juanda
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Tham Mun Hon
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, July 15, 2024
GREATER CHINA Economics Money Supply Money supply growth slows further. Trade Wider trade surplus in June on robust exports growth. Sector Banking Implications of PBOC’s bond sales for China banks. Update JD.com (9618 HK/BUY/HK$112.00/Target: HK$150.00) 2Q24 results ...
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
EA ENERGY ABSOLUTE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
SCC SIAM CEMENT PUBLIC CO. LTD.
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
UZMA UZMA BHD
MISC MISC BHD
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
MMHE MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY EN
PRIME PRIME ROAD POWER PUBLIC CO LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
HUME HUME CEMENT INDUSTRIES BHD
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - MISC-Bumi Armada Is Better Off Collaborating In Certain Pr...
MISC-Bumi Armada Is Better Off Collaborating In Certain Projects Speculations of a merger might have lifted Bumi Armada’s (BAB) share price in the past month. While combining both FPSO fleets may propel the merged entity to Modec’s fleet size, alongside complementary geographical FPSO market presence, the stumbling blocks are too great in our opinion. There is a lack of financial synergies from the non-FPSO segments. If any, we think a collaboration in certain projects may generate more positive...
- Kong Ho Meng
Sapura Energy (SAPE MK) - 1QFY25: Temporarily Weak Rig EBITDA, And Las...
1QFY25: Temporarily Weak Rig EBITDA, And Last Quarter Of E&P Earnings SAPE’s 1QFY25 core loss was expected due to weak rig EBITDA, as three of its rigs are awaiting the next contract mobilisation from Apr 24. While it secured extension until Mar 25 for the restructuring and had been claiming back projects (ONGC in 2QFY25), but legacy issues remain. This also marks the final quarter for SapuraOMV (RM41m). The cash boost was largely due to the Brazil PLSVs, and we continue to view it as the light ...
- Anas Fitri Bin Ahmad
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Chong Lee Len
- Heidi Mo Jinghui
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Johnny Yum
- Kong Ho Meng
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Stevanus Juanda
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Friday, June 28, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Bosideng (3998 HK/NOT RATED/HK$4.56): FY24: Earnings beat; healthy inventory; targets revenue to exceed Rmb30b by FY25/26. INDONESIA Strategy Investors Feedback To 2H24 Strategy: Our top picks are BBRI, BBNI, BMRI, BBTN, BSDE, CTRA, BUKA, CMRY, ACES and JSMR. We have an end-24 target of 7,800 for the JCI. MALAYSIA Results Sapura Energy (SAPE MK/HOLD/RM0.04/Target: RM0.06): 1QFY24: Core loss expected due to weak rig EBITDA, though this is temporary. SAPE made progress in c...
- Kong Ho Meng
Oil & Gas - Petronas Set To Embrace Volatilities In Net Zero Transitio...
Petronas Set To Embrace Volatilities In Net Zero Transition Petronas’ 1Q24 results showed that no business can escape the effects of volatility, as it experienced lower averaged realised prices, but higher costs. The local capex allocation for O&G and upstream achievements is overshadowed by the many uncertainties of existing projects (PRefChem) and the commercial settlement agreements with East Malaysia. Petronas remains steadfast in its target RM142b upstream capex for five years, with its foc...
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Kong Ho Meng
- Krit Tanarattananon
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Paula Ruth
- Thailand Research Team
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, June 4, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Property - Hong Kong Limited Downside Risks To Property Price in Near Term; Watch For Policy Support For Hong Kong Tourism. INDONESIA Update XL Axiata (EXCL IJ/BUY/Rp2,320/Target: Rp2,900) 2024 net profit could grow 45% yoy, partly driven by network improvement. MALAYSIA Sector Oil & Gas Petrona...
00016 SUN HUNG KAI PROPERTIES LIMITED
FCT FRASERS CENTREPOINT TRUST
00823 LINK REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
1023 CIMB GROUP HOLDINGS BHD
CPIN PT CHAROEN POKPHAND INDONESIA TBK
5681 PETRONAS DAGANGAN BHD.
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
TU THAI UNION GROUP PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ADVANC ADVANCED INFO SERVICE PUBLIC CO. LTD.
00014 HYSAN DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
5347 TENAGA NASIONAL BHD
AW9U FIRST REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
O5RU AIMS APAC REIT
SK6U SPH REIT
5243 VELESTO ENERGY
01997 WHARF REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT CO. LTD.
UZMA UZMA BHD
MISC MISC BHD
CDREIT CDL HOSPITALITY TRUSTS
YNS YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
SUN SUNTECH SA
KREIT KEPPEL REIT
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
BTS BTS GROUP HOLDINGS PUBLIC CO. LTD.
FEHT FAR EAST HOSPITALITY TRUST
BAB BUMI ARMADA BERHAD
PREIT PARKWAYLIFE REAL ESTATE
MINT MAPLETREE INDUSTRIAL TRUST
FHT FRASERS HOSPITALITY TRUST
DLG DIALOG GROUP BHD
MMHE MALAYSIA MARINE AND HEAVY EN
CPALL TB CP ALL
SDPL SIME DARBY PLANTATION BHD
DLUM DELEUM BERHAD
SASSR SASSEUR REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
MUST MANULIFE US REAL ESTATE INV
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
TGIF 1933 INDUSTRIES
UHU UNITED HAMPSHIRE US REIT
CICT CAPITALAND INTEGRATED COMMERCIAL TRUST
SCGP SCG PACKAGING PCL
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
TIDLOR NGERN TID LOR PCL
FLT FRASERS LOGISTICS & COMMERCIAL TRUST
KORE KEPPEL PACIFIC OAK US REIT
00017 NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
DHLT DAIWA HOUSE LOGISTICS TRUST
DCREIT DIGITAL CORE REIT
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
MPACT MAPLETREE PAN ASIA COMMERCIAL TRUST
123F 123FAHRSCHULE SE
BCOW 1895 BANCORP OF WISCONSIN INC
CLAS CAPITALAND ASCOTT TRUST
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
PRIME PRIME ROAD POWER PUBLIC CO LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
1737144D TB BETAGRO GROUP
- Kong Ho Meng
Sapura Energy (SAPE MK) - PLSVs May Be The Light At The End Of The Tun...
PLSVs May Be The Light At The End Of The Tunnel As a beneficiary of high offshore rates, SAPE’s PLSV fleet secured three-year contracts with Petrobras at DCR around pre-2014 levels. While execution still needs to be proven, based on the PLSVs’ consistent earnings track record, the earnings upside due to DCR is significant to the group’s reset plans. We reduce our loss forecasts, though more needs to be done to lift PN17. Upgrade to HOLD. Target price: RM0.06.
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Jo Yee Ng
- John Cheong Ming Chern
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Nurul Nazira Binti Abdullah
- Shirley Wang Xueyi
- Stella Guo Yuting
- Thailand Research Team
Regional Morning Notes - Thursday, May 09, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Internet: Expect growth momentum to reaccelerate in 2Q24 with release of blockbuster games. Update Budweiser APAC (1876 HK/BUY/HK$11.00/Target: HK$17.00): Base effect and bad weather to impact sales volume growth in 2Q24 in China. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$13.14/Target: US$16.30): Moderate regulatory tone; viable strategic transition to non-academic education. MALAYSIA Initiate Coverage Lagenda Properties (LAGENDA MK/BUY/RM1.66/Target: RM2.05): A legend in the af...
U11 UNITED OVERSEAS BANK LTD. (SINGAPORE)
5218 SAPURA ENERGY BHD
MINT MINOR INTERNATIONAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
KPG KERJAYA PROSPEK GROUP BHD
01876 BUDWEISER BREWING CO. APAC LTD.
OR PTT OIL & RETAIL BUSINESS PCL
AEM AEM HOLDINGS LTD
QHPF QUALITY HOUSES LEASEHOLD PROPERTY
LAGENDA LAGENDA PROPERTIES BHD
- Kong Ho Meng
Sapura Energy (SAPE MK) - Deal To Sell SapuraOMV Expected, But Not Suf...
Deal To Sell SapuraOMV Expected, But Not Sufficient For Rerating The long-awaited sale of SapuraOMV has materialised. The deal proceeds (cash of US$530m) of its crown jewel assets are aligned with our scenario and valuation assumption. As markets expected this sale, we do not think this is sufficient to pull SAPE out of the woods, as monitoring the group’s ex-SapuraOMV EBITDA generation is more important and still contains major downside risk. Hence, we advise a wait-andsee approach. Retain SELL...
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