reports
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Strategy - Tactical Rotation To Big Cap Laggards
There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from flow-driven to earnings-driven performance. We add ...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, October 20, 2025
Strategy | Tactical Rotation to Big Cap Laggards There has been a positive US$194m mtd equity inflow, reversing last year’s persistent outflow, although banks remain the largest source of foreign selling as flows rotate toward gold and MSCI-linked names. Domestically, sentiment is turning more constructive for 4Q25-2026, supported by fiscal acceleration, pro-growth policies, monetary easing, and improving banking liquidity. If macro conditions stabilise, we see market leadership shifting from fl...
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Ken Lee
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, October 20, 2025
Greater China Company Results | Fuyao Glass (3606 HK/BUY/ HK$67.50/Target: HK$105.00) Fuyao Glass’ 3Q25 earnings miss stems from its margins, dragged by the US division and higher effective tax rate. Revenue grew 19% yoy on 11% sales volume growth and 7% ASP hike. Based on the lower margins, we trim our 2025-27 net profit forecasts by 5%/3%/2% to Rmb9.61b/Rmb10.98b/Rmb12.71b respectively, implying 19% CAGR. Earnings prospects remain positive on overseas market share gains, optimisation of pr...
BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
KTC KRUNGTHAI CARD PCL
BBRI PT BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
COM7 COM7
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
CPALL TB CP ALL
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
AADI IJ ADARO ANDALAN INDONESIA
- Audrey Celia
- Willinoy Sitorus
Consumer - Consumer Sector 3Q25 Results Preview
Most 3Q25 results are expected to be in line, except for ACES, which may fall short due to heightened competition. JPFA is likely to stand out, supported by higher broiler prices and continued cost efficiency. The recent proposed VAT reduction by the government provides positive sentiment. Our channel checks indicate improving consumer confidence, supported by recent pro-growth policies, with sentiment turning more constructive towards year-end. Top picks: JPFA, AMRT, and CMRY. Highlights • Mos...
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Audrey Celia
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Benyamin Mikael
- Gigi Cheuk
- Joyce Chu
- Kate Luang
- Keith Wee Teck Keong
- Ken Lee
- Lester Siew
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, October 17, 2025
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s auto sector faces a geopolitical bind: Europe demands tech transfers for new investments, while China restricts such transfers. We see no earnings impact from the EU’s tech transfer requirement, but that allows first movers like CATL to enjoy unrivalled advantages. China raises market access requirements for automakers, targeting inexperienced players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL and Geely. Top SELLs: BYD and Li Auto. Small/Mid Ca...
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
ENRG ENERGI MEGA PERSADA
KLBF PT KALBE FARMA TBK
JPFA JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
MYOR MAYORA INDAH
C6L SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD.
EGH EUREKA GROUP HOLDINGS
M3I MINTH GROUP LIMITED
002340 GEM CO. LTD. CLASS A
5Z0 ZHONGSHENG GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
ERAA ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA
01316 NEXTEER AUTOMOTIVE GROUP LIMITED
002709 GUANGZHOU TINCI MATERIALS TECHNOLOGY CO LTD CLASS A
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
01585 YADEA GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
2333 GREAT WALL MOTOR CO. LTD. CLASS H
1211 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS H
2338 WEICHAI POWER CO. LTD. CLASS H
02238 GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS H
AOT AIRPORTS OF THAILAND PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BAL BUMITAMA AGRI LTD
BURSA BURSA MALAYSIA BHD
ICBP INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR T
2633 JACOBSON PHARMA CORP LTD
1772 GANFENG LITHIUM CO. LTD. CLASS H
300750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY CO. LTD. CLASS A
3606 FUYAO GLASS INDUSTRY GROUP CO LTD-H
603305 NINGBO XUSHENG AUTO TECHNOLOGY (A)
002920 HUIZHOU DESAY SV AUTOMOTIVE CO LTD
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
02161 JBM (HEALTHCARE) LTD
Z29 029 GROUP SE
02015 LI AUTO INC
600699 JOYSON ELECTRONICS CORP
- Alden Gabriel Lam
- Audrey Celia
- Benyamin Mikael
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Friday, October 17, 2025
Economics | Indonesia's External Debt Growth Cools As Borrowing Eases In Aug 25, Indonesia's external debt growth slowed significantly to 1.97% yoy, despite a slight monthly increase to US$431.9b. This deceleration was driven by declining public sector debt and a private sector contraction, improving key debt ratios. Looking ahead, debt growth is expected to accelerate with increased domestic spending, but will face challenges from a strong US dollar and high global bond yields, posing risks to ...
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, October 3, 2025
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile China’s EV sales surged 25% wow in the 39th week of 2025 but slowed to 10.5% yoy amid a high base and anti-involution efforts. Geely and XPeng outperformed, while BYD and Li Auto saw yoy sales declines. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector, with top BUYs on CATL and Geely; we downgrade Ganfeng Lithium from BUY to HOLD with an unchanged target price of HK$40.00, as the stock price has hit our target. Indonesia Economics | Indonesia’s Trade Balance Hits Mu...
BJC BERLI JUCKER PUBLIC CO. LTD.
GRU GEELY AUTOMOBILE HOLDINGS LIMITED
544 CSE GLOBAL LTD.
U96 SEMBCORP INDUSTRIES LTD.
BN2 VALUETRONICS HOLDINGS
002594 BYD COMPANY LIMITED CLASS A
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
COM7 COM7
558 UMS HOLDINGS LIMITED
O39 OVERSEA-CHINESE BANKING CORPORATION LIMITED
AP4 RIVERSTONE HOLDINGS
ADRO PT ADARO ENERGY TBK
D01 DAIRY FARM INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
CPALL TB CP ALL
IGBREIT IGB REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT T
SREIT SUNWAY REAL ESTATE INVESTMEN
CPALL-R CP ALL PCL NVDR
AXRB AXIS REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT
KLCCSS KLCCP STAPLED GROUP
FEH FOOD EMPIRE HOLDINGS LTD
FRKN FRENCKEN GROUP LTD
MPM MARCO POLO MARINE LTD
CSSC CHINA SUNSINE CHEMICAL HOLDINGS LTD
LI LI AUTO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
LREIT SP LENDLEASE GLOBAL COMMERCIAL REIT
HLA HONG LEONG ASIA LTD
CLAR CAPITALAND ASCENDAS REIT
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
CMMT CAPITALAND MALAYSIA TRUST
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
PREIT PAVILION REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
3750 CONTEMPORARY AMPEREX TECHNOLOGY (3750 HK)
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Johnny Yum
Strategy Alpha Picks - Golden September
Highlights • Our stock portfolio outperformed the JCI by 15.65% in Sep 25. • We drop BBCA, BBNI and BRMS, and add US dollar earners (MDKA & ADRO). AMRT is included for its strong 2H25 momentum. • Our new Alpha Picks are ASSA, ARCI, ADRO, AMRT, MDKA, HRUM and NCKL.
- Johnny Yum
- Maskun Ramli
- Suryaputra Wijaksana
Indonesia Daily - Friday, October 3, 2025
Economics | Indonesia’s Trade Balance Hits Multi-Year High On Import Weakness Indonesia's Aug 25 trade surplus surged to a multi-year high of US$5.49b, primarily driven by a decline in imports due to weak domestic demand. Exports saw only a marginal growth, narrowly supported by China, which offset global softness. The outlook remains challenging, with exports facing headwinds from global economic deceleration, rising protectionism, waning front-loading effects and weak commodity prices, while a...
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jack Lai Yuan Khai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Malaysia Research Team
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Greater China Sector Update | Property Property investment has declined since Jul 25 due to weak demand, LGFV financing controls, slow destocking and urban-redevelopment, and limited new loans. Sep 25 data showed a rebound in Tier 1 city home sales, led by Shanghai. Central government capital is needed. However, the existing policy stance points to a low possibility of direct injection by the central government. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT, with CR Land as our top pick. Indonesia Strategy | T...
00688 CHINA OVERSEAS LAND & INVESTMENT LIMITED
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
01109 CHINA RESOURCES LAND LIMITED
4197 SIME DARBY BHD.
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
SCNR SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
AJBU KEPPEL DC REIT
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
VSI V.S. INDUSTRY BERHAD
BAUTO BERMAZ AUTO BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
PECCA MK PECCA GROUP BHD
NTTDCR SP NTT DC REIT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
BNASTRA BINASTRA (BNASTRA MK)
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Takeaways From Indo Marketing And NDR Trip To Taiwan
Highlights • The strategy marketing and non-deal roadshows (NDR) for SSIA and AVIA in Taipei (Taiwan) had a total of 21 meetings. • Indonesia remains an attractive market overall based on general feedback given discounted valuations and lucrative dividends, though investors are mindful of underlying risks and caveats.
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Hendri Effendi
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, September 23, 2025
Strategy | Takeaways From Marketing and NDR Trip to Taiwan The Indonesia strategy marketing and NDRs for SSIA and AVIA in Taipei had 21 meetings. Investors seem to be engaged in the Indonesia market, particularly given the attractive valuations of blue chips and lucrative dividend yields, though investors are mindful of underlying risks and caveats. Technical Analysis Bumi Resources | BUMI IJ Trading Buy Range: We have a technical Buy at Rp120, and a target price of Rp129. Merdeka Copper Gold...
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Strategy - Takeaways From Purbaya’s Hearing With Parliament
Highlights • Purbaya signalled a pro-growth pivot by accelerating fiscal disbursement and aligning with monetary easing to “turn on both engines.” • The MoF injected Rp200t into SOE banks via deposit-on-call at a placement rate of 4%, while urging BI not to sterilise the liquidity. • Local news reported that a possible 2026 budget revision with higher regional transfers aims to further reinforce fiscal channels. Purbaya would like to keep the budget deficit below 3% of GDP.
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Maskun Ramli
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Monday, September 15, 2025
Strategy | Takeaways From Purbaya’s Hearing With Parliament The new Finance Minister signalled a pro-growth stance by channelling Rp200t of idle budget funds into SOE banks via deposit-on-call at 4% and urging BI not to sterilise liquidity. The move aims to revive credit flow, bolster household liquidity, and support consumer recovery. While BBNI and BMRI are most sensitive, BBNI and BBRI are better positioned to reprice costly deposits amid tight liquidity. Risks include fiscal dominance percep...
INKP PT INDAH KIAT PULP & PAPER TBK
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - Timeline Of Recent Demonstrations And Government Response
Protests over parliament members’ allowances began on 25 August and escalated after the death of a ride-hailing driver on 28 August, spreading nationwide. On 31 August, President Prabowo and parliament leaders announced the cancellation of the allowances, suspension of overseas trips, and dialogue with representative groups, while instructing security forces to take firm action to quell the unrest. The rupiah weakened 1.28% against the US dollar over the past week.
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Willinoy Sitorus
Strategy - JCI Momentum Finds New Fuel Ahead
JCI has surged 10% in three months, sharply outperforming LQ45 and MSCI Indonesia, driven by liquidity-fuelled speculation in conglomerate-linked names despite muted earnings and soft macro data. Political consolidation, rate cuts and improving macro indicators support sentiment, with rotation across major business groups sustaining momentum. We raise our JCI target to 8,000, reflecting our decision to roll forward our valuation to 2026 earnings, incorporating our forecast for 6.5% EPS growth in...
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Maskun Ramli
- Willinoy Sitorus
Indonesia Daily - Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Strategy: JCI Momentum Finds New Fuel Ahead: The JCI has surged 10% in three months, sharply outperforming LQ45 and MSCI Indonesia. We raise our JCI target to 8,000. TRADERS’ CORNER Siloam International Hospitals (SILO IJ): Technical BUY Delta Giri Wacana (DGWG IJ): Technical BUY
AMRT SUMBER ALFARIA TRIJAYA TBK PT
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BBNI BANK NEGARA INDONESIA PERSER
CMRY PT CISARUA MOUNTAIN DAIRY TBK
MDKA MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK PT
NCKL PT TRIMEGAH BANGUN PERSADA TBK (HARITA NICKEL)
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
HRUM HARUM ENERGY TBK PT
ASSA IJ ADI SARANA ARMADA TBK PT (ASSA IJ)
ARCI IJ ARCHI INDONESIA (ARCI IJ)
- Audrey Celia
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Damon Shen
- Gigi Cheuk
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Kitpon Praipaisarnkit
- Ming San Soong
- Tanapon Cholkadidamrongkul
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
- Willinoy Sitorus
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Wednesday, August 6, 2025
GREATER CHINA Strategy China & Hong Kong Property: CR Land’s acquisition of Shanghai projects points to further consolidation towards SOEs; potential easing of capital transfer will be key focus for Hong Kong market. Results Launch Tech (2488 HK/NOT RATED/HK$12.03): 1H25: Robust overseas and software business growth; step-up in dividend. Update Tencent Holdings (700 HK/BUY/HK$559.00/Target: HK$650.00): 2Q25 results preview: Strong game pipeline and AI-powered adtech as key catalysts. INDONESIA ...
- Audrey Celia
- Willinoy Sitorus
Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT IJ) - 1H25: Solid Results; Expansion Outs...
AMRT posted solid 1H25 results, with revenue rising 8% yoy and net profit up 5% yoy to Rp1,884b, representing 50% and 51% of our and consensus estimates respectively. Topline was primarily driven by strong performances in non-Java regions, which grew 16% yoy. Store and DC expansion plans for 2H25 remain on track. The company’s SSSG guidance of 4-6% appears achievable, supported by an expected recovery in purchasing power. Maintain BUY with a target price of Rp3,000.
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