Resurs Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Resurs Holding AB bought 164,785 shares at 23.500SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...

Weak performance overshadowed by bid

Q3 a "non-event" given the bid

Bid situation overshadows weak performance

Q2 in line with pre-announcement. Earnings scenario only tweaked for 2025e-26e. Expect the bid to go through – reiterate HOLD, TP SEK 23.5.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK23.50) - Waiting for the acquisition

Q2 earnings were largely in line with the pre-announced figures. Following the public bid in June, we still expect the company to be acquired in September at close to the current share price, and we reiterate our HOLD and SEK23.5 target price.

Q2 in line with pre-announcement

Q2 a "non-event" given the bid situation

Q2 pre-announced in connection with bid offer. Adj. EPS down 10% for 2024e and 5% for 2025-26e. Bid situation overshadows operational performance.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK23.50) - Roll credits

A consortium of buyers has offered to acquire Resurs at SEK23.5/share. In our view, this bid is likely to go through. We have therefore raised our target price to SEK23.5 (18.0) and downgraded to HOLD.

Take-out bid at SEK 23.5 (~38% premium)

Resurs Holding (Buy, TP: SEK18.00) - Resur-recting the case

The market appears to be pricing in credit losses remaining high for many years, but we see the potential for declines starting in mid-2024, with early positive signs in March. We also find it likely that margins will be stable from here, which is not reflected in consensus. At a P/E of 3–4x for 2025e, we see good risk/reward. We have raised our 2025–2026e EPS by 3–7%, our target price to SEK18 (15), and have upgraded to BUY (HOLD).

The worst should now be behind us

Q1 weaker than expected. Earnings scenario only tweaked for 2025e-26e. Valuation support, but short-term uncertainty remains.

Weak Q1 driven by elevated loan losses

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK15.00) - Credit losses taking their toll

We see downside risk to current consensus on the adj. loan loss ratio potentially hitting an all-time high in Q1, which is seemingly not factored in. Moreover, the net banking income margin (total income / total lending) looks set to continue ticking down after having been stable for eight quarters, which would again call into question if it can remain stable going forward. We have made minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS and reiterate our HOLD and SEK15 target price.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK15.00) - Cautiously optimistic

Q4 was largely in line with the profit warning, with high loan losses. The main positives were stable margins and some new profitability efforts. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK15 (17) on estimate risk and a lack of near-term catalysts. We see upside potential if the market gains confidence in loan losses soon normalising and margins remaining stable.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK17.00) - Near-term potential, but high ri...

Resurs issued a Q4 profit warning due to higher credit loss provisions and other one-off effects. We see the potential for a significant near-term share price recovery as macro conditions improve, but the risk is too high for us to recommend buying the stock. Thus, we reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK17 (24) on higher credit losses.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK24.00) - A bit tougher this time

We expect a tough Q4, with rising costs and some margin pressure. However, we see upside potential to cons. 2024–2025e EPS if the market were to gain confidence that margins will remain stable and credit losses will come down soon. We have raised our 2025e EPS by c5% but reiterate our HOLD and SEK24 target price.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK24.00) - Margins on the mend

Q3 was ‘business as usual’, with stable margins and credit quality. We see upside potential if/when the market gains confidence in Resurs’s cost target and margins having stabilised. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK24 (26) on a deteriorated macro-outlook with higher risk of spiking unemployment.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK26.00) - Set for a stable quarter

We see some upside to consensus on loan losses in Q3. This should help ease the market’s concerns a bit about spiking credit losses, although we believe it is still too early to price in a return to normalised loan losses. We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by c4%, but we reiterate our HOLD and SEK26 target price.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK26.00) - Improved underlying credit quali...

In Q2, Resurs’s loan loss ratio (LLR) improved by 30bp on better underlying credit quality. We see some potential upside to consensus on capital distributions and continued stable margin trends. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 10–11% on higher lending volumes and commissions, and in turn our target price to SEK26 (22), while we reiterate our HOLD.

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