The worst should now be behind us

Q1 weaker than expected. Earnings scenario only tweaked for 2025e-26e. Valuation support, but short-term uncertainty remains.

Weak Q1 driven by elevated loan losses

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK15.00) - Credit losses taking their toll

We see downside risk to current consensus on the adj. loan loss ratio potentially hitting an all-time high in Q1, which is seemingly not factored in. Moreover, the net banking income margin (total income / total lending) looks set to continue ticking down after having been stable for eight quarters, which would again call into question if it can remain stable going forward. We have made minor changes to our 2025–2026e EPS and reiterate our HOLD and SEK15 target price.

Resurs Holding AB: 1 director

A director at Resurs Holding AB maiden bought 21,669 shares at 13.810SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two ye...

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK15.00) - Cautiously optimistic

Q4 was largely in line with the profit warning, with high loan losses. The main positives were stable margins and some new profitability efforts. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK15 (17) on estimate risk and a lack of near-term catalysts. We see upside potential if the market gains confidence in loan losses soon normalising and margins remaining stable.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK17.00) - Near-term potential, but high ri...

Resurs issued a Q4 profit warning due to higher credit loss provisions and other one-off effects. We see the potential for a significant near-term share price recovery as macro conditions improve, but the risk is too high for us to recommend buying the stock. Thus, we reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK17 (24) on higher credit losses.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK24.00) - A bit tougher this time

We expect a tough Q4, with rising costs and some margin pressure. However, we see upside potential to cons. 2024–2025e EPS if the market were to gain confidence that margins will remain stable and credit losses will come down soon. We have raised our 2025e EPS by c5% but reiterate our HOLD and SEK24 target price.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK24.00) - Margins on the mend

Q3 was ‘business as usual’, with stable margins and credit quality. We see upside potential if/when the market gains confidence in Resurs’s cost target and margins having stabilised. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to SEK24 (26) on a deteriorated macro-outlook with higher risk of spiking unemployment.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK26.00) - Set for a stable quarter

We see some upside to consensus on loan losses in Q3. This should help ease the market’s concerns a bit about spiking credit losses, although we believe it is still too early to price in a return to normalised loan losses. We have cut our 2024–2025e EPS by c4%, but we reiterate our HOLD and SEK26 target price.

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK26.00) - Improved underlying credit quali...

In Q2, Resurs’s loan loss ratio (LLR) improved by 30bp on better underlying credit quality. We see some potential upside to consensus on capital distributions and continued stable margin trends. We have raised our 2024–2025e EPS by 10–11% on higher lending volumes and commissions, and in turn our target price to SEK26 (22), while we reiterate our HOLD.

Northern Lights

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK22.00) - Set for further margin pressure ...

We expect further pressure on the Consumer Loans net interest margin (NIM), with the loan loss ratio (LLR) little-changed from Q1’s fairly high level. With the possibility of increased capital distributions, we see potential for relatively attractive total returns. Our 2024–2025e EPS are largely unchanged, and we reiterate our HOLD and SEK22 target price.

Northern Lights

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK22.00) - Roll credits

In Q1, Resurs’s loan-loss ratio (LLR) rose to the top of its 30-year range of 1–3%, driven by a significant increase in delayed payments. In our view, this data point says little about Resurs’s long-term credit losses, but still hints to mid-term difficulties. In our view, the stock still lacks significant near-term catalysts, with little upside potential on the margin outlook. We have cut our 2023–2025e EPS by 4–15% on higher credit losses. Thus, we have cut our target price to SEK22 (26) and r...

Northern Lights

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK26.00) - Credit losses in focus

Resurs Holding (RESURS SS, Hold) - Credit losses in focus (13 pages)

Northern Lights

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK25.00) - MiNIMal rate-hike benefits

Resurs’s Q4 NIM was somewhat weak, with 3% QOQ NII growth driven only by higher lending volumes. We see a slightly increased risk of realised credit losses for H1e. At a 2024e P/E of 7x, the stock is low-valued in our view but lacks significant near-term catalysts. We have cut our 2023–2024e EPS by 4–7% on higher interest-rate pass-through and reduced our target price to SEK25 (26). Thus, we reiterate our HOLD.

Northern Lights

Resurs Holding (Hold, TP: SEK26.00) - It gets better before it gets wo...

We expect Resurs to report a 5-quarter record NIM of 7.6%, driven mainly by benefits from rate hikes. We believe this upward NIM trend may continue for another 1–2 quarters, but that the effect of tight underlying competition will re-emerge once the central banks cut rates. Thus, we see upside potential for Q4 earnings, but downside risk for late-2023 if investors over-extrapolate short-term rate-driven NIM trends. We have raised our 2023–2024e EPS by 5–10%, on mainly higher NIM estimates. We ha...