reports
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
INTO INTERVEST OFFICES & WAREHOUSES SA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
VGP VGP NV
NSI NSI N.V.
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
EBUS EBUSCO HLDG NV
CTPNV CTP NV
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
INTO INTERVEST OFFICES & WAREHOUSES SA
XIOR XIOR STUDENT HOUSING N.V.
COFB COFINIMMO SA
VASTN VASTNED RETAIL NV
MONT MONTEA SCA
AED AEDIFICA SA
CPINV CARE PROPERTY INVEST SA
VGP VGP NV
NSI NSI N.V.
WDP WAREHOUSES DE PAUW SCA
ECMPA EUROCOMMERCIAL PROPERTIES NV
EBUS EBUSCO HLDG NV
CTPNV CTP NV
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Gerardo Ibanez
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
ODDO : Dutch transfer tax to be reduced to 8%, supporting NAV and LTVs...
>Dutch real estate transfer tax to be reduced from 10.4% to 8% - The Dutch government will reduce the transfer tax for commercial buyers to 8%, according to leaked documents that newspaper De Telegraaf released. This is still more than the 6% it was before 2021, but less than the current 10.4%. The budget has now been sent to the Council of State. On “Prinsjesdag”, September 17, the House of Representatives will officially receive the plans, and the budget will be mad...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Thibault Leneeuw
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo Model update – lowering estimates and lowering TP
We have lowered our adjusted EBITDA forecasts for FY24-26 by 8% following the FY24 guidance reduction from a flat result to a 5-10% drop. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating sizeable FCF (close to €100m in 1H). Starting from a very solid balance sheet, capital allocation is a crucial theme in the equity story. We view share buybacks as an excellent way to create shareholder value and welcome the awaited simplification of ...
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Pro forma Solvency and excess capital better, operationally 1H24...
>Conclusion: Pro forma Solvency and excess capital better, operationally in line - End 1H24 the pro forma group Solvency 2 ratio was with 196% higher than expected as a result of more benefits from the Knab Aegon bank sale. As a result the excess capital is about € 300m higher which is positive for the for excess capital adjusted FCF yield, which is about 14%. We have a good S2 ratio of 212% for end 2025. In 1H24 the non-life life result was good with above market ave...
- Thomas Vranken
Biotalys FIRST LOOK: 1H24: Programs on track, Dutch demo kickstarts
Biotalys continues its work with the EPA and Ctgb for regulatory approval of Evoca in the US and EU. Impressively, Evoca can start a large-scale demo trial in the Netherlands with allowed harvest sale for human consumption, which we see as a major vote of confidence by the regulator. Overall, Biotalys is advancing on its key programs despite a significqnt opex cut, leaving runway into 2Q25. We maintain our conviction in Biotalys' tech while we await a regulatory decision, and reiterate a € 6.0 T...
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASR: 1H small beat, KNAB add-on to Solvency 2 higher. Avantium: Down to the wire. Flow Traders: Pump up the volume. Greenyard: 1Q24/25 preview. Kendrion: Navigating difficult end markets. Montea: Solid results with no surprises, guidance reiterated. NEPI Rockcastle: Guidance raised, M&A opportunities on the radar. Tessenderlo: 1H24 Adj. EBITDA miss of 5%, lower FY guidance
- Wim Hoste
Tessenderlo FIRST LOOK: 1H adj. EBITDA -26.5%, FY guidance lowered
1H adj EBITDA dropped by 26.5% and was 1% better than our forecast although 5% below consensus. FY adj EBITDA guidance has been lowered from a flat result to a 5-10% drop whilst we and consensus were banking on +2%. Whilst business conditions in a number of end markets are clearly challenging, Tessenderlo is still generating sizeable FCF (close to €100m in 1H). Starting from a very solid balance sheet, capital allocation is a crucial theme in the equity story. We view share buybacks as an excell...
- Thomas Couvreur
- Thomas Vranken
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Pro forma Solvency 2 ratio better, non-life marginally better, O...
>Conclusion: Pro forma Solvency better, non-life marginally better, OCC in line - End 1H24 the pro forma group Solvency 2 ratio was with 196% higher than expected by more benefits from the Knab Aegon bank sale. In 1H24 the non-life combined ratio was marginally better than expected. The H1 OCC capital generation was in line, and it was good that there were no changes at all on their future OCC. A.s.r. is benefitting from the rising NL house prices, and there is a high...
- Roy Külter
- Steven Boumans
Montea : H1 2024 results: firing up the development pipeline
>Strong increase in developments, outlook reiterated and +2% revaluations - Deployment of land bank: € 214m capex in execution (Q1: €132m), adding a development in Tiel (Netherlands); € 260m capex permit obtained, not yet pre-let (Q1 2024: €260m); € 40m pre-let, permit expected in due course (Q1 2024: 103m). This pipeline includes 372,000sqm land in execution (Q1 2024: 189,000sqm) on a total land bank at 2.2m sqm (stable vs Q1 2024).Outlook reiterated: EPRA EPS...
- Stijn Demeester
Tessenderlo/Adhering to a constructive view as cycle turns/BUY
As we revisit the Tessenderlo investment case, we reiterate our BUY recommendation on a target price of €32 per share, from €44 previously. While ongoing macro headwinds are likely to result in a soft 1H24 performance, we expect earnings to recover as of 2025F, driven by selective growth investments. Additionally, we believe Tessenderlo's attractive valuation, strong cash generation and solid balance sheet further warrant a constructive stance.
- Emna Ben Bdira
- Maxime Kogge
- Emna Ben Bdira
- Maxime Kogge
- Cor Kluis
ASR : Solid 1H24 results and healthy non-life results
>Conclusion: Solid 1H24 results and healthy non-life results - We expect a.s.r. to present that its Solvency 2 (S2) ratio rose to 180% (being 193% pro forma for bank sale) by end 1H24. For the Organic Capital Creation (OCC) we expect € 643m in 1H24. Operationally the non-life results are likely to be healthy with a combined ratio (COR) of 91.5% for P&C and disability. In our recent a.s.r. note (20 pages) ‘CMD shows back to life growth, buy-out confidence, good excess ...
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