Frontline (Buy, TP: NOK280.00) - Front-row ticket to tanker potential

We believe the tanker fundamentals continue to look attractive, in particular for the VLCCs, with a highly manageable ~4% deliveries expected for 2025–2026. Further, we see potential positive catalysts in sanctions further restricting volumes transported on the dark fleet (possibly triggering scrapping postponed by shadow fleet deployment) and signs of a more aggressive volume strategy from OPEC+. Hence, we reiterate our BUY but have reduced out target price to NOK280 (295).

Important year coming up

Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

Novo Nordisk (Buy, TP: DKK900.00) - Subdued prescription growth in Q1

We have updated our model with the latest IQVIA data, and see downside risk to Visible Alpha consensus. We see Q1e global sales for Wegovy of DKK17,898m (c2.2% below consensus) and Ozempic of DKK31,642m (c1.5% below consensus). While a reaffirmation of guidance could offer relief, we have lowered our target price, primarily on lower-than-expected GLP-1 sales. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to DKK900 (1,040).

Mixed upside potential, despite market recovery expectations

Pent-up demand and falling interest rates remain the backbone for newbuild recovery expectations. However, as the recovery has not yet started, property developers screen as the most attractive long-term, but visibility remains mixed. Diversified construction companies are more attractive on near-term P/Es, although many seem to be fully valued on solid share-price performance over the past six months. We maintain a neutral sector view; NCC and Skanska are our top picks.

Selvaag Bolig (Sell, TP: NOK32.00) - Unit sales in line, EPS still tra...

Today’s Q1 trading update showed a unit sales recovery broadly in line with our forecast. However, while starts were above our forecast, our 2025e is unchanged at 700 units. Despite KPIs seemingly recovering as expected, we still see downside risk for the stock given the long lead time to profit and dividends and as the valuation looks high relative to peers. Ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 21 May), we forecast marginally negative Q1 EPS on few deliveries. We reiterate our SELL and ...

Sales as expected, deliveries above

Hexagon Composites (Buy, TP: NOK38.00) - Cautious on near-term outlook

We are significantly below consensus on Q1e EBITDA, owing to the challenging US truck market, with the uncertainty in demand, costs, and regulations resulting in lower demand for new trucks and technology shifts taking longer. With most of its business in the US, we consider Hexagon Composites vulnerable. As a result, we have lowered our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 9–15%. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK38 (50) on the weaker near-term outlook.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1150.00) - Deal delivery

We are positive on the partnership with Roche for petrelintide and view the financial terms as favourable for Zealand Pharma. While we had included Roche as the partner for petrelintide in our base case, the deal terms are better than we assumed. Thus, we have updated our valuation for petrelintide to DKK731 NPV/share. We reiterate our BUY and have increased our target price to DKK1,150 (1,010), based on our SOTP NPV.

Frontline Plc: 1 director

A director at Frontline Plc bought 5,000 shares at 171.050NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Frontline Minor model adjustments

We have trimmed our 2025–2026e EBITDA by 1% after updating our forecasts for the Q4 report and Q1 guidance, and introduce our 2027 estimates. We remain positive on tanker fundamentals, particularly for VLCCs, with ~4% deliveries in 2025–2026e against ~23% of the fleet aged 20+ years at end-2026e. Along with potential catalysts such as sanctions and stricter enforcement (13% of the crude fleet is under sanctions, 11% for VLCCs), and Frontline’s current P/NAV of 0.88x (historical average ~1.2x), w...

Renewable Weekly – 20 February 2025

This week, we summarise this week's most important newsflow on the companies under our coverage.

Zealand Pharma (Buy, TP: DKK1010.00) - Poised for big news

Q4 revenue was DKK9.1m, driven by the Zegalogue licence and development agreement with Novo Nordisk, and EBIT was DKK-399.3m (we forecast DKK-370.1m, consensus DKK-367.6m). The 2025 opex guidance was for DKK2,000m–2,500m, reflecting pipeline progression investments. We expect strong pipeline news flow in H1, including dapiglutide headline results and potentially a petrelintide partnership. We reiterate our BUY and DKK1,010 target price.

Selvaag Bolig ASA: 5 directors

Five Directors at Selvaag Bolig ASA sold 294,695 shares at between 36.840NOK and 37.020NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over ...

Energy Morning - 14 February 2025