EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
HEADLINES: • CEZ: 4Q24 results a strong beat, FY25E guidance also positive POSITIVE • PKO BP: posts solid 4Q24, and sets solid base for 2025E delivery NEUTRAL • Sarantis: FY24 slightly above guidance; minor guidance upgrade for 2025E POSITIVE • Allegro: 4Q24 EBITDA beat, solid FY25E guidance, PLN 1.4bn buyback POSITIVE • Inter Cars: preliminary 4Q24 net profit rises 41% yoy, but a slight miss vs. expectations NEUTRAL • Shoper: 4Q24 preliminary adjusted EBITDA up 32% yoy, sound 12% beat vs. our f...
HEADLINES: • Jahez: slightly positive 4Q24 results – beat on adjusted EBITDA, miss on net revenue POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (3-9 March) • Auto Partner: February sales growth decelerates to a mere 2% yoy NEGATIVE • PGE: signs PLN 1.26bn agreement to construct energy storage facility NEUTRAL • Aegean Airlines: January-February traffic up 9% yoy NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: traffic growth slowed in February NEUTRAL • Turkish food retail: Competition Board launches investigation...
EME Equity Market – November 2024 Rebound in Türkiye, Romania hammered. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 3.8% in EUR terms and 1.0% in USD terms in November. The Turkish ISE30 recouped the losses of the previous month, adding 10.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX added 4.3% mom in EUR terms, followed by the PX (+2.9% mom), the ASE (+0.8% mom) and the WIG (+0.8% mom) (all in EUR terms). Following the first round of presidential elections, and the polemic and uncertainty that ensued, the BET ...
HEADLINES: • Benefit Systems: 3Q24 in line with our forecasts; solid trading update; 2025E outlook and 2025-27E strategy POSITIVE • Patria Bank: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Inter Cars: 3Q24 EBITDA 1-4% below our and the market's expectations NEUTRAL • Footshop (NOT RATED): solid 3Q24; 2024E guidance boosted POSITIVE • Aegean Airlines: 3Q24 – flat RASK, CASKX up 14%; 27% lower EBIT, on 4% lower ASK (in line) NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 3Q24 post-results webcast takeaways POSITIVE • cyber_Folks: ke...
HEADLINES: • Magyar Telekom: another record strong year ahead (stays BUY) • Shoper: 3Q24 adjusted EBITDA up 28% yoy, broadly as expected NEUTRAL • Turkish Airlines: 3Q24 – EBIT and EBITDA in line with our estimates, 4-5% above the consensus POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: weak results in 3Q24, revenue growth guidance lowered NEGATIVE • Tofas: highly weak set of results in 3Q24 NEGATIVE • Air Astana Group: 3Q24 in line with our estimates NEUTRAL • Isbank: 3Q24 highlights – core bank still loss makin...
HEADLINES: • Otokar: weak set of 3Q24 results NEGATIVE • Piraeus Financial Holdings: 3Q24 highlights – decent quarter, with revised guidance POSITIVE • Brisa: profitability should return in 4Q, on October price hikes NEUTRAL • Elm: strong 3Q24 financial results POSITIVE • Jahez: strong 3Q24 results POSITIVE • Alkaloid AD Skopje: strong 3Q24 sales and a qoq margin rebound POSITIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 October-3 November) • Magyar Telekom: reaches agreement with the trade uni...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: 3Q24 headline net profit at record high (in line with earlier flash estimate), enables revenues to grow 35% yoy NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank International: 3Q24 in line with expectations; higher CHF mortgage saga costs in Poland to affect FY24E ROE; significant acceleration in downsizing Russian business NEUTRAL • ADNOC Drilling: 3Q24 results NEUTRAL • Elm: 3Q24E financial results preview (due on 3 November) • CCC: 3Q24E prelims preview – 93% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 8 ...
EME Equity Market – August 2024 A red month for the EME indices, with only the Czech PX index in positive territory. The MSCI EM Europe index declined by 4.7% in EUR terms and 2.6% in USD terms in August. The Czech PX index was the only index to report a positive figure, adding 0.5% mom in EUR terms. The rest of the indices were in the red: the Turkish ISE30 index was down 11.5% mom in EUR terms, followed by Greece (-3.2% mom), Romania (-2.6% mom) and Hungary (-1.2% mom; all in EUR terms). The P...
HEADLINES: • Baltic Classifieds Group: niche diamond (HOLD - initiation of coverage) • Al Arabia Outdoor Advertising: weak 2Q24 financial results NEGATIVE • Jahez: mixed 1H24 financial results NEGATIVE • TBC Bank: 2Q24 results and conference call NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (5-11 August) • Orlen: 2Q24E EBITDA estimates published NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: still challenging 2Q24E expected, with weaker yoy EBITDA, but up slightly qoq already (due on 29 August) • PZU: 2Q24E preview (due ...
EME Equity Market – July 2024 Greece the biggest winner, while Poland the clear loser in July. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 1.1% in EUR terms and 0.3% in USD terms in July. The Greek ASE Index posted the best performance for the month, advancing by 5.3% mom in EUR terms. There was a broadly similar performance in Hungary, Czechia and Romania (+ 2.9%, 2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Turkish ISE30 Index declined by 1.6% mom in EUR terms, but the clear loser was the Polis...
HEADLINES: • Romania macro: NBR delivers first rate cut • Inter Cars: June sales up by a limited 3% yoy, disappointing second month in a row NEGATIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: teams up, reportedly, with Terna Energy for offshore wind in Greece POSITIVE • Jahez: submits transfer request to the main market POSITIVE • AROBS Transilvania Software: completion of Stage 1 of share capital increase and opening of Stage 2 NEUTRAL • Arcelik: potential closure of Yate plant in the UK NEUTRAL • Short News (CPS)
EME Equity Market – June 2024 Another positive month for most of the EME indices, with the Hungarian BUX Index outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 1.0% in EUR terms, but declined -0.2% in USD terms in June. The Hungarian BUX index reported the strongest performance, adding 4.8% in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Polish WIG20 (+3.7% and 2.1%, in EUR terms, respectively), and the Turkish ISE30 (+0.9% in EUR terms). Greece and the Czech Republic were in negative territor...
HEADLINES: • EME Macro/Strategy: how big should the political risk premium in Europe be? • Lamda Development: 1Q24 – with the wind in its sails • BIM: strong set of results in 1Q24 POSITIVE • LPP: 1Q24 strong, as expected; FY24E guidance maintained POSITIVE • CCC: 1Q24 results in line with prelims; positive trends maintained in 2Q24 NEUTRAL • US macro: Fed pushes back on rate cuts • Jahez: announces SAR 150m real estate purchase NEUTRAL • Text: 4Q23-24E preview – 1% yoy EBITDA drop expected (due...
EME Equity Market – May 2024 Turkish equities lead, in the mostly green month of May. The MSCI EM Europe Index rose by 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 1.8% mom in LCU terms in May. The Turkish ISE30 index reported the strongest performance, adding 3.6% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Romanian BET and the Czech PX (+2.7% and 2.1% mom in EUR terms, respectively). The Hungarian BUX index and the Polish WIG20 remained broadly flat (+0.4% and +0.2% mom in EUR terms, respectively); although, in LCU terms,...
HEADLINES: • Jahez: shifting up a gear (upgraded to BUY) • Ilirija d.d.: on track for another solid summer season (NOT RATED) • Ford Otosan: 1Q24 results – operating margin evolution as expected NEUTRAL • Tofas: 1Q24 results – operating performance as expected NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: 1Q24 results in line with the prelims; 34% yoy increase in logistics costs is the major concern NEUTRAL • CA Immo: 1Q24 – rents up 6% yoy lfl, more sales above book, pre-tax FFO I of EUR 26m NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Pols...
We have transferred coverage of Jahez, and upgraded the stock to BUY (from Hold), with an updated 12M price target (PT) of SAR 37, offering upside potential of 21% from the current price. Over the past two years, the company has achieved significant progress in the logistics and non-KSA segments, and continued to gain market share in the non-central KSA regions. We continue to see significant growth potential for the company, with a GMV acceleration in 2024E and room to increase its profitabilit...
EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak bottom-line performance in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Sipchem: 1Q24 results – weak net income NEGATIVE • Kruk: issues flash 1Q24 net profit of PLN 338m NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 April) • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • OTP Bank: CEO Csanyi speaks at AGM on future acquisitions and Russian exposure POSITIVE • Budimex: BXF Energia acquires 60 MW photovoltaic project NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: dividend policy for 2023-25E and p...
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