EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Arcelik: weak bottom-line performance in 1Q24 NEGATIVE • Sipchem: 1Q24 results – weak net income NEGATIVE • Kruk: issues flash 1Q24 net profit of PLN 338m NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 April) • Türkiye macro: MPC takes a pause, but hiking cycle not over yet • OTP Bank: CEO Csanyi speaks at AGM on future acquisitions and Russian exposure POSITIVE • Budimex: BXF Energia acquires 60 MW photovoltaic project NEUTRAL • Inter Cars: dividend policy for 2023-25E and p...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • Türkiye macro: MPC surprises with a 500bp hike • Hungary macro: Hungary ends the cap on bank deposits • Aselsan: new USD 0.6bn contract • Dino: 8-10% EBITDA miss in 4Q23 - qoq sales erosion • Benefit Systems: conference call takeaways - solid 2024E outlook, Türkiye promising, churn-related risks from the Czech Republic should not materialise in Poland • 11 bit studios: Indika release date set for 8 May • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call • Jahez: conference call takeaways •...
HEADLINES: • Polish Banks: not done yet (PKO BP, Bank Pekao, Santander BP, mBank, ING BSK, Bank Millennium, Alior Bank, Bank Handlowy) • Kazatomprom: digging the margins (stays BUY) • Jahez: mixed 2023 financial results NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: publishes 2024 budget NEUTRAL • Migros: BoD to propose DPS of TRY 6.904 NEUTRAL • Short News (M, BRISA)
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Cimsa: sustainable growth, with a global view (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Magyar Telekom: fastest-growing EMEA telecom (stays BUY) • Ten Square Games: improved short-term outlook, but long-term challenges (stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: CIS plus - top growth in our markets, again • 4iG: 3Q23 review - solid results, with 32% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • Duna House: 3Q23 - doubles down on Italy with the Professione Casa acquisition NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 3Q23 - wor...
Yesterday (30 November), Jahez announced the voting results of the extraordinary general assembly meeting, which included the approval of a stock split. The company has split the nominal value of the shares from SAR 10/share to SAR 0.50/share. As a result, the number of shares is 209,836,060, from 10,491,803, while the capital remains unchanged. Following the stock split, our updated price target (PT) is SAR 35.2/share.
HEADLINES: • Czech Republic macro: CNB begins rate cut deliberations • Komercni Banka: solid 3Q23 delivery, but not implying any major changes in medium-term outlook NEUTRAL • Raiffeisen Bank: beats 3Q23 expectations, improves guidance, but valuation still at deep discounts NEUTRAL • BRD-GSG: 3Q23 results - strong bottom line with still provision releases POSITIVE • Dino: 2-5% beat in 3Q23 NEUTRAL • HELLENiQ Energy: 3Q23 results - above the consensus, plus interim dividend of EUR 0.3/share • ...
EME Equity Market – October 2023 Market performance – election results prompt stellar market reaction in Poland; sell-off in Turkey. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 1.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.0% mom in USD in October. Poland staged a massive rebound, post the elections, with the WIG20 advancing 16.4% mom in EUR terms. Apart from Turkey, where October was a sell-off, with the ISE30 declining 13.7% mom in EUR terms, there were relatively muted performances everywhere else (BUX +2.1% / PX +0.4% / B...
HEADLINES: • Aselsan: 3Q23 results - backlog hits historical peak of USD 11bn, execution on track POSITIVE • Coca-Cola Icecek: strong beat in 3Q23 financials POSITIVE • Logo Yazilim: 3Q23 results - in line NEUTRAL • Siauliu Bankas: 3Q23 results highlights • OMV Petrom: takeaways from the 3Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: GDP disappoints in 3Q • OMV: joint venture to build Europe's largest plastics sorting facility • Jahez: announces lapse of period to fulfil the SPA condition...
EME Equity Market – September 2023 Market performance – positive developments in Romania and Turkey, declines everywhere else. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 3.7% mom in EUR terms and 6.0% mom in USD in September. Romania took the spotlight, with the BET Index advancing 7.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Turkish ISE30 (+4.6% mom). The Polish WIG20 declined the most (-8.7% mom), followed by the Greek ASE, the Hungarian BUX and, finally, the Czech PX (-7.9%, -1.9% and -0.6% mom, respectively).
HEADLINES: • Greece macro: still on a promising growth trajectory • Jahez: 1H23 earnings miss, announces 20:1 stock split NEGATIVE • 4iG: key takeaways from the 2Q23 earnings call • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (28 August-3 September) • Wizz Air: trends in August little changed vs. July NEUTRAL • Huuuge Games: August bookings estimate up 23% mom, driven by the flagship games POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: August bookings flat mom, Wings of Heroes up slightly NEUTRAL • ONE United Propert...
EME Equity Market – August 2023 Market performance – Turkey the top performer in August, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 0.7% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in August. Turkey, yet again, outperformed its peers, with the ISE30 gaining 9.4% mom in EUR terms. The Hungarian BUX index saw a solid performance in August, adding 6.1% mom in EUR terms, while the Romanian BET had a lacklustre month, barely making any gains (0.1% mom in EUR terms). Elsewhere, the index performances were neg...
HEADLINES: • LPP: heart of steel (stays BUY) • PGE: new 2030 strategy - more aggressive capex targets • Bank Handlowy: strong 2Q23 results; presents plan to support Tier 1 ratio and keep DPS rich NEUTRAL • Dom Development: 2Q23 - GPM still around 30%, as if the challenging last year did not happen POSITIVE • Motor Oil Hellas: 2Q23 results - refining segment weaker than expected • Enea: 2Q23 prelims - 44% EBITDA beat driven by distribution POSITIVE • Globalworth: preliminary 1H23 results NEUT...
HEADLINES: • Raiffeisen Bank International: 2Q23 - slight miss, some upside risk for our adjusted 2023E earnings • Tupras: 2Q23 results - reported EBITDA well above forecasts, CCS EBITDA not so special • Arabian Drilling: better than we Fracking expected POSITIVE • Athens Exchange Group: strong 2Q23 results, propelled by high trading volumes • Eurobank: 2Q23 highlights • Piraeus Bank: 2Q23 highlights • Siauliu Bankas: margin expansion provides for strong 2Q23 • Czech Republic macro: GDP d...
In this report, we transfer coverage of Solutions by STC (Solutions), downgrading our rating on the company to HOLD, from BUY, with an updated 12M price target (PT) of SAR 334, which offers c.5% upside. Since our initiation (click here for more details), the company’s share price has performed strongly, fuelled by acquisitions and solid results, and has surpassed our previous PT of SAR 287. We continue to like Solutions for its leading position in the market and its one-stop shop approach, but v...
EME Equity Market – May 2023 Market performance – in its election month and with talks of a return to investment grade starting to materialise, Greece outperformed, posting a stellar performance. The MSCI EM Europe Index gained 2.3% mom in EUR terms, but lost 1.4% mom in USD in May. The Greek ASE Index saw the biggest gains (+12.3% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Hungarian BUX Index (+6.2% mom in EUR terms) and the Turkish ISE 30 Index (+3.4% mom in EUR terms). The remaining geographies finis...
HEADLINES: • Purcari: 1Q23 results show strong sales growth POSITIVE • Transgaz: stronger 1Q23 net profit than expected, on lower impairments of receivables NEUTRAL • Alro: net loss reported for 1Q23 NEGATIVE • DIGI Communications: 1Q23 results - adjusted EBITDA up 8% yoy, in line with our estimates NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: 1Q23 in line, as higher revenue compensated for a lower gross profit margin NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: Hidroelectrica 1Q23 results • Nuclearelectrica: takeaways...
HEADLINES: • Jahez: entering new markets (stays HOLD) • Turkish Airlines: 1Q23 - stellar pax yields, partly offset by higher CASK and declining cargo yields POSITIVE • Migros: 1Q23 results - strong beat POSITIVE • Brisa: small 1Q23 beat, driven by continuing margin recovery POSITIVE • Anadolu Efes: strong operating results in 1Q23 POSITIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 1Q23 - solid start to the year POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: Chamber of Deputies approves solidarity tax law, including tax on processed crude •...
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