HEADLINES: • Greek banks: life after the windfall (Alpha, Eurobank, NBG and Piraeus – transfer of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Orlen: announces PLN 1.6bn of probable trading losses NEGATIVE • ING BSK: AGM approves PLN 33.35 DPS NEUTRAL • Public Power Corporation: partners with Mytilineos for 2GW solar portfolio NEUTRAL • InPost: PPF realises option to buy 10% stake • ONE United Properties: founders and others selling up to 9.5% in ABB • PKO BP: ...
Refining margins retreated in March, to USD 13.7/bbl, after the highs of February, but remain about 50% higher than usual for the season. Petrol cracks have begun their seasonal rising trend. Petrochemicals margins are largely rising, albeit marginally, despite the higher oil prices.
After a slow retreat from their extraordinary highs, refining margins bounced back in February to USD 19.8/bbl, helped by the lengthened supply chain. Once again diesel is the main driver, but other product cracks also improved. Oil prices were a little higher than last month.
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES: • Patria Bank: strong bottom-line beat, but lacking quality • Turkey macro: 4Q GDP expands by 4% • 4iG: 4Q23 results review – solid results, with 19% yoy pro-forma EBITDA growth NEUTRAL • AUGA Group: 4Q23 – positive gross profit in all segments, but liquidity risk on the horizon • HELLENiQ Energy: 4Q23 results – dividend proposal NEUTRAL • Sphera Group: 4Q23 above our expectations POSITIVE • AmRest: key takeaways from the 4Q23 call POSITIVE • Richter: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings ...
HEADLINES: • Solutions by STC: M&A remain the main source of growth (stays HOLD) • Banca Transilvania: strong NII and NIM expansion in 4Q23 results POSITIVE • Kaspi.kz: 4Q23 highlights and 2024E guidance POSITIVE • Akcansa: 2023 financial results review NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: FY23 consolidated net profit 5% above preliminary figure (stand-alone) NEUTRAL • ONE United Properties: reaches EBITDA (excluding revaluations) of EUR 59m in 2023 NEUTRAL • ADNOC Distribution: 2028 strategy update NEUTRA...
HEADLINES: • CCC: the boys are back in town (stays BUY) • Bank Pekao: solid 2023 profits, generous PLN 19.2/share dividend, market waiting for AGM date POSITIVE • Orlen: 4Q23 results – CCS EBITDA in line NEUTRAL • Solutions by STC: key takeaways from the 4Q23 conference call NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: potential to pay out up to 50% of its 2023 net profit as a dividend NEUTRAL • PKO BP: PFSA guides for maximum dividend payout • Polish banks: mBank, ING BSK and Santander BP receive dividend letters fro...
HEADLINES: • Bank of Georgia: thoughts on the Ameria acquisition POSITIVE • Eurocash: antimonopoly court waives PLN 76m fine POSITIVE • Budimex: PLN 2.3m best offers for S10 express road sections POSITIVE • Warsaw Stock Exchange: 4Q23E preview (due out tomorrow) • Orlen: 4Q23E results preview (due on 22 February) NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q23E results preview – 9% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 6 March) • Dino: 4Q23E results preview – 16% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 21 March) • LPP...
The oil markets were roiled by problems in the Red Sea, and Brent crude prices rose, a reversal of recent trends. Diesel prices followed suit, improving refining margins, although petrol was not affected significantly. European demand looks a little more robust than it did a few months earlier.
HEADLINES: • European oil & gas: parting from the Red Sea • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (8-14 January) • Kazatomprom: expects 2024E production to miss guidance targets NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: end-December 2023 NAV per share up 4% mom NEUTRAL • Grupa Pracuj: new job ads on Pracuj.pl reach 390,000 in 2H23, down 14% vs. 1H23 NEGATIVE • Bank Millennium: 4Q23E preview (due on 30 January) • Santander Bank Polska: 4Q23E preview (due on 31 January) • ING BSK: 4Q23E preview (due on 1 ...
Attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, by the Houthis from Yemen, have complicated the supply chains for Europe, and none more so than the supply of crude oil and oil products. The expropriation of a cargo belonging to Tupras on 11 January was a timely reminder of the risks. The shortage of heavy crude oils could get marginally worse, as cargos need to be rerouted around the long way. The lack of crude oil from Northern Iraq via the Kirkuk pipeline is exacerbating the problem c...
Brent crude prices spent much of December increasing steadily, after a big drop at the beginning of the month, but averages were still lower. December usually has the worst margins, but benchmark refining margins were only slightly lower, with diesel still strong and crude differentials a little better mom.
EME Equity Market – December 2023 Market performance – Poland outperforms in December. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 1.9% mom in USD in December. The WIG20 Index continues to perform well in the post-elections environment and reported the strongest performance in our core region, adding 5.9% mom in EUR terms. There was also a strong performance from the Romanian BET and Hungarian BUX indices, adding 4.4% and 4.1% mom, respectively, in EUR terms; while there was a relat...
HEADLINES: • Greek oil refiners: working in a Margin Wonderland (HELLENiQ Energy and Motor Oil Hellas upgraded to BUY) • Hungary macro: MNB signalling more optimism • Colt CZ Group SE: conference call on S&B acquisition POSITIVE • Raiffeisen Bank International: acquires a 27.8% stake in Strabag • TeraPlast: acquires pipe manufacturer Palplast, based in Republic of Moldova POSITIVE • PCF Group: CEO maintains release date plans for Bifrost and Victoria NEUTRAL • Short News (BFT, TEN, SNG)
The season of goodwill in the refining business never seems to come to an end. Strong diesel cracks have driven refining margins all year, and will continue into 2024E, in our view. Refinery capacity utilisations are high and middle distillate yields are down in Europe, due to changes in feedstock availability. Energy costs have been falling, with gas prices in 2023 at just one-third of where they were in 2022. We expect further declines in 2024E. Both companies are investing heavily in renewabl...
HEADLINES: • Text: 2Q23-24 (calendar 3Q23) preliminary results - EBITDA up 10% yoy, 3% below our estimate NEGATIVE • Telecom Egypt: publishes 2024E guidance - mid double-digit top-line growth expected POSITIVE • HELLENiQ Energy: joint venture ELPEDISON testing market for LNG project • Wirtualna Polska: real users in November 2023 NEGATIVE • WOOD's Winter Wonderland EME Conference 2023: postcards from Prague • Magyar Telekom: postcard from Prague • Dino: postcard from Prague • Eurocash: postc...
Try as it might, OPEC cannot stop the gradual decline in oil prices, even with further cuts. Despite this demand red flag, refining margins remain at close to average levels, with diesel still very strong. In fact, were it not for heavy crudes being sold at a premium to Brent, our benchmark would be much higher. Therefore, we expect refiners to outperform the benchmark by optimising crude oil supplies.
EME Equity Market – November 2023 Market performance – Greeks in the lead, in a month with only green across the region. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 5.6% mom in EUR terms and 8.7% mom in USD in November. The Greek ASE Index was the top performer in our region (+6.9% mom), followed by the Polish WIG20 (+5.5% mom) and the Hungarian BUX (+4.0% mom). The Czech PX Index saw the most muted performance, advancing 2.8% mom.
HEADLINES: • Akcansa: a resilient business model that is hard to ignore (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Wirtualna Polska: 3Q23 results review - adjusted EBITDA up 56% yoy, 4% above the consensus POSITIVE • Auto Partner: 3Q23 EBITDA 7-9% above expectations on a better gross margin POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: 3Q23 adjusted EBITDA marginally above expectations, weak October for Hunting Clash NEUTRAL • Ten Square Games: share buyback of up to PLN 115m to be voted on at the EGM POSITIVE • Ten Squa...
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