Strong insurance outcome and financials

Stronger insurance and profit sharing

Heads-up for Q2-report, 11 July

AUM rebound drives earnings growth

Norway: Best ideas Q2'25

Insurance trip: 16 insurers in three days

Non-life have price increases > inflation in all markets, most in Norway. Life insurance growth with rapid growth & dividend payments. Prefer ALMB, Sampo, Solid, Tryg among non-life; STB for life

ROE held back by too-high capital base

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Insurance repricing on track

Q1 PTP before amortisation was NOK1,167m, up 8% YOY, driven by strong growth in Banking and Insurance. While high sales activity had a negative impact on the insurance cost ratio, the combined ratio continued to improve through premium growth of 20% YOY, leaving Storebrand close to the 90–92% target for 2025. We have made fairly limited EPS revisions for 2026–2027e, and reiterate our BUY and NOK149 target price.

Softer operating profit, better financials

Adj PTP +5%/-2%, on better financials, but much weaker op.profit. Softer fee, insurance and opex behind the miss, financials beat. Cons.est.rev -2-4%, stock -2% to 4% on the operating profit miss

Heads-up for Q1-report, 7 May

A setback for AUM and returns

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK149.00) - Strong start to the year

Fuelled by strong AUM growth within Savings, and the effects of several rounds of insurance repricing, we forecast a Q1 PTP (before amortisation) of NOK1,166m, ~8% stronger YOY. With the new NOK1.5bn buyback underway, the company is offering an attractive payout yield of 6–7%. We believe the stock is attractively valued at a 2026e P/E of c10x, when adjusting for the excess capital to be distributed. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to NOK149 (140).

Systemair (Hold, TP: SEK90.00) - Margin volatility

After updating our model for the weaker Q3 results than forecast, we have reduced our 2024/25–2026/27e adj. EBIT by c9% on average as we expect lower profitability. We have cut our target price to SEK90 (105) and reiterate our HOLD on limited upside potential. While we expect improving organic growth, we have low confidence in the margin target (10% on EBIT) due to the margin volatility, and find the valuation fair.

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...

Nordic non-life insurance – Q4 reporting wrap

Who stands to benefit?

A potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine could unlock one of the largest reconstruction efforts in modern history. The World Bank estimates Ukraine will need USD486bn in rebuilding efforts over the next decade, but we estimate this would add only c2% to annual European construction spending. While the direct earnings effect may be modest, we expect the “rebuild Ukraine theme” to drive investor sentiment. We see Volvo, Epiroc, Hexagon, Metso, Hiab and ABB as some of the primary beneficia...

Clearer capital repatriation path needed

Storebrand (Buy, TP: NOK140.00) - Strong repricing momentum

The insurance rebound continued to raise earnings, with PTP before amortisation up 61% YOY after a 15%-point improvement in the reported combined ratio. However, the performance was still hampered by elevated disability claims, and despite ~20% higher premiums YOY, the full effect from recent repricing measures has yet to be seen. We have reduced our 2025–2026e EPS by 2%, and reiterate our BUY and NOK140 target price.

It can better; but stock to reset down

Heads-up for Q4-report, 12 February