Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

If it's too good to be true, it usually is

Salmon prices higher on another blow to '24e supply, but farmers struggling to reap the benefits due to weak biology. Valuation not demanding, but more mixed triggers short term.

Valuation remains attractive

Q1e EBIT of EUR 201m, as pre-announced. '24e EBIT down 8% on weak biology and soft US prices. Sector top-pick at '24e-25e P/E of 13x-11x (5Y-avg. 16x).

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 12,008 shares at 273.140SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 82/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Europris ASA: 1 director

A director at Europris ASA bought 7,232 shares at 68.704NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

Seafood - Fat Trout Weekly

SSAB AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at SSAB AB bought 15,813 shares at between 60.100SEK and 61.060SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 70/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last t...

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK80.00) - Not its best report

Both the Q1 results and the 2024 cost guidance disappointed. However, we reiterate our BUY as we continue to find the valuation attractive and believe Europris has a winning concept in the current market, but have lowered our target price to NOK80 (85), reflecting our estimate cuts.

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Financial targets up next

The solid Q1 results were aided by the ongoing gross margin recovery, YOY and QOQ. We expect investor focus from here to be on whether Essity can offset rising raw material costs through agility and pricing power. We see new financial targets and capital allocations as the next potential share-price catalysts; we reiterate our BUY and have edged up our target price to SEK330 (325).

Pulp fiction in Q1, reality for Q2

Feeling the pressure

Weak Q1, EBIT 27% below on higher costs. Being squeezed on many fronts – GM & costs. Market will improve, but a soft Q2 is likely: HOLD.

Europris (Buy, TP: NOK85.00) - Weak report and guidance

We consider this a weak report, below expectations due to lower gross margins and higher costs, and a cost guidance above expectations. We expect consensus 2024e EBITDA to come down 7.5–10% and believe a c5–10% negative share price reaction is warranted.

Essity (Buy, TP: SEK325.00) - Good Q2, but no buybacks

We consider this a positive report for Essity, with Q1 adj. EBITA 10% above consensus, mainly driven by a strong gross margin. That said, no financial targets or buybacks following the Vinda transaction were announced, and we expect any conference call comments to be in focus. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBITA to come up c2% on the results and expect a positive share price reaction.

SSAB (Buy, TP: SEK100.00) - Impressive earnings resilience

Q1 proved another solid quarter, aided by impressive earnings resilience in SSAB Special Steels and SSAB Europe. While we have lowered our 2024-25 forecasts for SSAB Americas, this is offset by a more positive view on SSAB Special Steels and SSAB Europe, meaning our group earnings are largely unchanged. We reiterate our BUY, but given the stock is now trading ex-dividend (DPS of SEK5), we have lowered our target price to SEK100 (SEK105).

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 24/04/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/24/2024

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SSAB : Sound Q1 results thanks to Special Steels and Europe, decent Q2...

>Q1 a strong beat on Europe and Special Steels, Americas more underwhelming - SSAB delivered better-than-expected Q1 results with EBITDA at SEK 4.1bn, 18% > consensus and 26% > ODDO BHF. The beat was essentially driven by the Special Steels division which achieved SEK 2.1bn of EBITDA, 45% > consensus on very sound volume growth (+17% q-o-q) as good demand in material handling offset weakness in construction. Europe also outperformed with EBITDA at SEK 0.6bn, 44% > con...