ABGSC Shipping Daily 20 December

Car shipping sector report: Still tight, though fleet growth is accelerating, Gulf of Aden arrivals down 74% by capacity, Panama Canal - Transits in line with pre-drought levels, Gatun Lake monitor - Water levels projected lower.

Still tight, though fleet growth is accelerating

The dividend machine

Cheap is not enough

Weak '25 guidance, down to HOLD

ABGSC Shipping Daily 12 December

Mixed tanker markets, dry bulk down, LPG up; Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.67x; New EU sanctions against Russia’s ghost fleet; WAWI - signs two multi-year contracts with "large auto OEMs".

ABGSC Shipping Daily 10 December

HAUTO: CEO sells shares, now hold 0.48% of the company, China November import data; coal and crude up, iron ore slightly down, Car shipping: Chinese passenger car export: -10% m-o-m in November, +25% YTD.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 6 December

Mixed tanker and dry bulk markets and LPG up, Shipping peer group trades at P/NAV 0.70x, HAUTO trading update: Positive trading update and long-term outlook, HAUTO signs 5-year contract with a "major international car producer"

Positive trading update and long-term outlook

Net rates of USD 87.5/CBM in November, down 1.5% from October. ~3% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'24e. Positive share price reaction warranted.

ABGSC Shipping Daily 2 December

ABGSC Shipping Daily 29 November

Container spot rates up again 3% w-o-w, contract rates flat, HAUTO signs 2-year contract with a "major international car producer", Flex LNG announces 15yr time charter for Flex Constellation

ABGSC Shipping Daily 27 November

ABGSC Shipping Daily 26 November

Still strong rates, now at 40% yield

Net rates of USD 88.8/CBM in October, up 6% from September. ~2% upside to consensus EBITDA for Q4'24e. Positive share price reaction warranted.

Wallenius Wilhelmsen ASA Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates owing to Wallenius Wilhelmsen’s Q3 results, which were broadly in line with our estimates and prompted limited underlying revisions. Hence, we continue to see considerable cash flow inbound (NOK62/share FCFE for 2025–2026e and NOK29/share excess long-term cash) that should be directed towards attractive shareholder returns in the years ahead, as we expect contracts to be renewed at better rates with decent visibility. We do not consider these changes to be material,...

'25e to be much better than '24e

Q3 slightly below cons, but several one-offs

Adj. EBITDA of USD 504m (-6% vs. ABGSC, -2% vs. cons). Shipping, Logistics and Holdings below, beat in Government. Q3 miss on higher costs, no other notable news.

Höegh Autoliners ASA Minor model adjustments

We have reduced our Q4 2024 and 2025 adj. EBITDA estimates slightly in light of the Q3 report. We do not consider these changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We have raised our target price to NOK152 (149). We find yesterday’s share-price reaction a reflection of overall deteriorating sentiment across the shipping sector, but believe the muted guidance should prompt downward revisions to a perhaps overly optimistic consensus. Still, potentially lasting cash flow...

DPS of NOK 110 from now to end-'26

Beat on DPS, but somewhat soft Q4 guidance

EBITDA USD 177m (ABGSC USD 178m, cons USD 183m). Q4 EBITDA to be "...in line with the last nine months run rate". Share up 0-2%.