PV sales remained weak during 1-12 April, reflecting the sustained front-loading effect from the roll-back of tax concession, Qingming holiday drag, high oil prices, and purchase delays ahead of Beijing Auto Show new-model debuts. EVs and exports remain bright spots, offsetting domestic ICE-car sales weakness. CPCA projects 13% China’s EV sales growth and 1% yoy overall PV sales growth for 2026, on par with our estimates. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, BYD and Minth.
Greater China Economics | Economic Activity China’s 1Q26 GDP growth came in at 5.0% yoy (+0.5ppt qoq, -0.4ppt yoy), indicating stabilisation from the 2H25 trough. March data was mixed - industrial production rose 6.1% yoy (-0.2ppt mom), beating expectations, while retail sales slowed to 1.7% yoy and FAI ytd edged down to 1.7% yoy (-0.1ppt mom), both missing consensus estimates. Property FAI ytd remained weak at -11.2% yoy. The surveyed unemployment rate rose to 5.4% (+0.1ppt mom). Overall, d...
In 4Q25, the upstream segments (battery and battery materials) outperformed the mid-stream (auto parts) and downstream (auto OEMs) segments. China’s auto sector profits should have bottomed in 1Q26 and will likely recover along with PV sales from 2Q26 as: a) the front-loading effect is fading, b) local subsidies are coming through, c) OEMs are launching new techs, and d) overseas sales remain buoyant. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, Minth and Ganfeng Lithium.
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile In 4Q25, the upstream segments (battery and battery materials) outperformed the mid-stream (auto parts) and downstream (auto OEMs) segments. China’s auto sector profits should have bottomed in 1Q26 and will likely recover along with PV sales from 2Q26 as: a) the front-loading effect is fading, b) local subsidies are coming through; c) OEMs are launching new techs; and d) overseas sales remain buoyant. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Geely, Min...
A director at Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd bought 980,000 shares at 20.840HKD and the significance rating of the trade was 71/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last ...
Geely’s 4Q25 core net profit beat estimates at Rmb3.79b (-3% yoy/+4% qoq). Earnings growth will be driven by a strong product cycle, optimisation of sales mix, new innovative tech, penetration into overseas markets, and a consolidation of its brand portfolios. We maintain our 2026-27 earnings estimates. Maintain BUY with an unchanged target price of HK$36.00 pegged to 23x 2026F PE, on a par with the historical mean forward PE.
Top Stories Company Results | Fuyao Glass (3606 HK/BUY/HK$60.25/Target: HK$105.00) FYG’s 4Q25 GAAP net profit missed expectations at Rmb2,248m (+11.3% yoy/-0.5% qoq), due to forex losses. Stripping out one-off items, adjusted net profit met estimates at Rmb2,427m (+36.2% yoy/+4.0% qoq) on a yoy margin expansion. Its earnings outlook remains brilliant, backed by: a) continuous market share gain overseas, b) ASP increase on product mix optimisation, and c) its aluminium trim business. Maintain 20...
Greater China Company Results | Fuyao Glass (3606 HK/BUY/HK$60.25/Target: HK$105.00) FYG’s 4Q25 GAAP net profit missed expectations at Rmb2,248m (+11.3% yoy/-0.5% qoq), due to forex losses. Stripping out one-off items, adjusted net profit met estimates at Rmb2,427m (+36.2% yoy/+4.0% qoq) on a yoy margin expansion. Its earnings outlook remains brilliant, backed by: a) continuous market share gain overseas, b) ASP increase from optimisation of product mix, and c) its aluminium trim business. M...
The US-Iran conflict boosted oil prices, accelerating EV adoption but causing minimal short-term cost shock to China's auto industry. February deliveries met expectations, with exports offsetting weak domestic demand. BYD unveiled new technology while Xpeng launched its smart driving system. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs include CATL and Geely, while Li Auto is our top SELL.
Greater China Economics | China China set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5-5.0% yoy, in line with expectations, while maintaining a 4% fiscal deficit ratio. Fiscal policy remains the main growth driver, supported by Rmb4.4t in local government special bonds and Rmb1.3t in ultra-long treasury bonds, while monetary policy stays accommodative. Policy priorities focus on AI+, New Quality Productive Forces, industrial upgrading, and targeted consumption support, alongside welfare improvements and ...
China's humanoid robotics sector is accelerating, with 2025 global shipments up 508%. Key players anticipate significant revenue contributions by 2031: CATL expects 3-7% from batteries; Minth and LeaderDrive project 5-12% and 45-65% respectively; Tuopu forecasts 15-25% from motion systems; and RoboSense targets 40-60% from LiDAR. We maintain a MARKET WEIGHT rating on the sector. Top BUY recommendations include CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth (target price raised to HK$62.00), and Geely, while Li Au...
Top Stories Sector Update | Consumer The CNY consumption data exhibited accelerated growth momentum compared with the two Golden Weeks last year, which we view as early signs of a broader consumption recovery. We favour companies benefitting from: a) segments showing initial signals of recovery, such as restaurants; b) exposure to China’s structural consumption growth drivers, particularly in services and experiential consumption; c) potential policy tailwinds; and d) overseas growth. Our prefer...
Top Stories Sector Update | Hong Kong Property Residential prices rebounded more strongly than expected in 4Q25 and ytd, supported by positive rental yield spread over mortgage rates and stabilising population trends in Hong Kong. However, the yield spread has narrowed and supply remains relatively high despite easing sequentially. We raise our 2026 price growth forecast to 7% and primary transaction estimate to 25,000 units. We downgrade SHKP to HOLD, keep Kerry Properties at BUY, and maintain ...
As of mid-Feb 26, over 20 Chinese provinces and cities have announced 2026 vehicle purchase subsidy schemes, aligning with the national policy that has shifted to percentage-based subsidies (favouring mid-range to high-end vehicles) from 2025’s fixed amounts. This supports premium segments and market stability but may not fully counter the new 5% EV tax. 2026 sales forecasts: PV ‒ 30.4m units (+3% yoy); PEV ‒ 18.2m units (+19% yoy). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth ...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile As of mid-Feb 26, over 20 Chinese provinces and cities have announced 2026 vehicle purchase subsidy schemes, aligning with the national policy that shifted to percentage-based subsidies (favouring mid-range to high-end vehicles) from 2025’s fixed amounts. This supports premium segments and market stability but may not fully counter the new 5% EV tax. 2026 PV sales forecast: 30.4m units (+3% yoy); PEV sales: 18.2m units (+19% yoy). Maintain MARKET WEIG...
CATL, BYD, and Changan are deploying SIBs in EVs due to longer cycle lives, strong cold-weather performance and better fire safety. SIB-equipped EV sales are projected to make up 4-9% of global EV sales. LIBs remain dominant, but CATL benefits from diversification. The lithium market is expected to stay resilient through 2030. The hike in lithium carbonate costs will mostly be borne by auto OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; BUY CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth, Geely; SELL Li Auto.
CPCA estimates January China passenger NEV wholesale sales at 900,000 units (+1% yoy/-42% mom), with front-loaded purchases ahead of the reduced purchase tax and delayed local subsidies weighing on volumes. Automakers with ICE-car exposure, such as Geely Auto and Great Wall Motor, saw relatively resilient January sales. We expect China’s auto sales to recover after Chinese New Year, with local subsidies in place. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL:...
Greater China Sector Update | Automobile CPCA estimates January China passenger NEV wholesale sales at 900,000 units (+1% yoy/-42% mom), with front-loaded purchases ahead of the reduced purchase tax and delayed local subsidies weighing on volumes. Automakers with ICE-car exposure, such as Geely Auto and Great Wall Motor, saw relatively resilient January sales. We expect China’s auto sales to recover after Chinese New Year, with the local subsidies in place. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: ...
Chinese EVs are gaining share in the global auto market, due to China’s integrated supply chain dominance and favourable trade policies. Established incumbents like BYD are facing increasing competition from fellow Chinese auto OEMs and some western brands like VW. Lower-export OEMs (Geely, XPeng) hold greater upside than high-export leaders (BYD, GWM). China’s EV export hub status benefits suppliers as foreign OEMs leverage local production. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithi...
12 Chinese automakers set ambitious targets for 2026. Despite weak sales from 1-18 January, we maintain our PV sales forecast of 30.4m units (+3% yoy), driven by exports and EVs. Policy shifts in the EU and Canada are creating a more favourable environment for Chinese EV exports, supporting overseas growth. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: CATL, Ganfeng Lithium, Minth and Geely. Top SELL: Li Auto.
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