Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK195.00) - Decent start to 2025

We reiterate our BUY, but have reduced our target price to SEK195 (200) on trimmed estimates (weak USD). We forecast decent Q1 results (due at 08:00 CET on 30 April), including adj. EBIT of EUR5.4m, down slightly YOY, reflecting the Kindred contract and raised gaming taxes. We expect the 2025 adj. EBIT guidance to be maintained, and see potential for client signings, stricter cost efficiency and better capital distribution.

Kambi Group Plc: 1 director

A director at Kambi Group Plc bought 20,000 shares at 106.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK200.00) - Increasingly de-risked 2025e

The Q4 earnings beat was overshadowed by a 2025 outlook implying negative EBIT YOY, prompting cuts to our 2025–2026e, but fairly stable consensus, we believe. We see potential for more client signings and cost savings to improve the outlook (following positive news flow YTD) as well as scope for higher share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY ahead of an increasingly de-risked 2025e, but have cut our target price to SEK200 (210).

'25 another tough year, but still good value

'25 EBITA guidance in line

Balancing '25 headwinds and tailwinds

Unexciting US data in Q4

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Growth from Brazilian stake

Kambi’s recent signings (e.g. KTO and Stake) and opportunities in the newly regulated Brazilian market support our view of positive revenue growth in 2025–2026e. In addition, there is the potential for efficiency initiatives introduced by the new CEO, and we expect decent Q4 results, supported by a busy sports calendar and healthy sports margins in European football. We reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price.

ICE 2025: what we learned

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Improving with sizeable buybacks

The Q3 sales growth was lacklustre YOY due to temporary headwinds, and we have cut our 2025e adj. EPS by 5%. But cash flow is improving (EUR60m net cash at end-Q3); the board announced a EUR12m buyback programme; and the outlook remains positive (customer pipeline, Brazil, efficiency focus and rising shareholder distribution). The negative overreaction on results day has created an attractive opportunity, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price.

Unwarranted reaction

Solid Q3 with underlying EBIT beat

Solid Q3, good entry remains

Softer US handle, but strong margin in Q3

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Earnings growth recovery on track

We reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price, having only fine-tuned our estimates ahead of the Q3 results (due at 07:30 CET on 6 November). We expect Q3 to show Kambi is well on track to achieving its 2024 revenue and cost guidance, and hope to be able to discuss the promising medium-term outlook with the new CEO, e.g. the new regulated market in Brazil, more potential customer signings and room for efficiency improvements.

Back on track

Q2 well above expectations, supported by record SB margin. Solid H2'24e awaits with Penn online off the comps. Keep BUY at 9-5x clean '25e-'26e EV/EBITA.

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Serving guidance increase

Q2 EBIT was more than double consensus, thanks to high activity and house-friendly results in the UEFA Euros. Kambi raised its implicit 2024 EBIT guidance by ~14%, but remained on the cautious side in our view (implying flat underlying earnings YOY in H2). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK210 (195) after increasing our 2024–2025e EBIT by 15–7%. We see scope for the guidance to move higher, more buybacks and further re-regulation (e.g. Brazil).

Big Q2 beat

Exploiting market's mispricing

Solid underlying Q2, last quarter with Penn online comps. New capital allocation strategy is encouraging, leading us to raise '24e-'26e EPS by 6-28%, keeping EUR 40m in cash.

Solid US handle growth in April and May