Kambi Group Plc: 1 director

A director at Kambi Group Plc bought 50,000 shares at 112.850SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 97/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clea...

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Improving with sizeable buybacks

The Q3 sales growth was lacklustre YOY due to temporary headwinds, and we have cut our 2025e adj. EPS by 5%. But cash flow is improving (EUR60m net cash at end-Q3); the board announced a EUR12m buyback programme; and the outlook remains positive (customer pipeline, Brazil, efficiency focus and rising shareholder distribution). The negative overreaction on results day has created an attractive opportunity, and we reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price.

Unwarranted reaction

Solid Q3 with underlying EBIT beat

Solid Q3, good entry remains

Softer US handle, but strong margin in Q3

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Earnings growth recovery on track

We reiterate our BUY and SEK210 target price, having only fine-tuned our estimates ahead of the Q3 results (due at 07:30 CET on 6 November). We expect Q3 to show Kambi is well on track to achieving its 2024 revenue and cost guidance, and hope to be able to discuss the promising medium-term outlook with the new CEO, e.g. the new regulated market in Brazil, more potential customer signings and room for efficiency improvements.

Back on track

Q2 well above expectations, supported by record SB margin. Solid H2'24e awaits with Penn online off the comps. Keep BUY at 9-5x clean '25e-'26e EV/EBITA.

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK210.00) - Serving guidance increase

Q2 EBIT was more than double consensus, thanks to high activity and house-friendly results in the UEFA Euros. Kambi raised its implicit 2024 EBIT guidance by ~14%, but remained on the cautious side in our view (implying flat underlying earnings YOY in H2). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK210 (195) after increasing our 2024–2025e EBIT by 15–7%. We see scope for the guidance to move higher, more buybacks and further re-regulation (e.g. Brazil).

Big Q2 beat

Exploiting market's mispricing

Solid underlying Q2, last quarter with Penn online comps. New capital allocation strategy is encouraging, leading us to raise '24e-'26e EPS by 6-28%, keeping EUR 40m in cash.

Solid US handle growth in April and May

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK195.00) - Home advantage at half time

We reiterate our BUY but have raised our target price to SEK195 (190) following a 7% increase in our 2024e EBIT, as we have upped our revenue expectations for Q2 with flat cost assumptions. Solid Q2 results should de-risk the company’s implicit EUR14m–15m 2024 EBIT guidance, and we expect the upcoming announcement of a new CEO to be a positive event following lacklustre share-price performance YTD.

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - New growth and nations incoming

Kambi showed steps in the right direction in Q1 after expectations were re-based in conjunction with the Q4 report. We have raised our 2024e EBIT by 5% following the earnings beat in Q1, and find the implicit EBIT guidance of EUR~15m fairly conservative in light of e.g. the upcoming onboarding of Svenska Spel in Sweden and LiveScore in the UK. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK190 (180).

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK190.00) - New growth and nations incoming

Kambi showed steps in the right direction in Q1 after expectations were re-based in conjunction with the Q4 report. We have raised our 2024e EBIT by 5% following the earnings beat in Q1, and find the implicit EBIT guidance of EUR~15m fairly conservative in light of e.g. the upcoming onboarding of Svenska Spel in Sweden and LiveScore in the UK. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK190 (180).

Exciting times ahead

Better than feared, expect a slight relief

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Preparing for more action

We reiterate our BUY and SEK180 target price, and expect Q1 to show Kambi is on track to meet its 2024 revenue and EBIT guidance. The near-term outlook is positive in our opinion (key sports events like UEFA Euro 2024, and onboarding new key customers), and a new CEO should be announced soon. We have raised our 2024e EBIT by 3%, and expect more clarity on future potential buybacks (new framework to be put to the AGM).

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK180.00) - Succession in the making

We have cut our 2024e adj. EPS by c30% reflecting Kambi’s cautious revenue guidance, partly explained by the less-attractive terms in the contract extension with Kindred. Consequently, we have cut our target price to SEK180 (235) but reiterate our BUY ahead of the CEO change, re-based consensus, a healthy customer pipeline, intact structural tailwind, and as we remain optimistic on earnings growth in the forecast period.

Kambi (Buy, TP: SEK235.00) - An eventful year ahead

We reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to SEK235 (250) after cutting our 2024 adj. EPS by 8%. We expect soft Q4 earnings, burdened by player-friendly results (sports margin) and a high drop through. However, the 2024 outlook remains positive, with key sport events and contributions from new key clients. The negatives are more than discounted, we believe.