reports
- Simen Mortensen
Q1 reporting season kicks off and a new equity issue announced
The Q1 reporting season has started and several covered names have already reported. SBB announced it aims to raise SEK2.6bn in a D-share rights issue, which would be the 14th equity issue in the sector YTD. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.04% for 2023e and 5.40% for 2024e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
Double PW in housebuilding sector
This week, Bonava and YIT gave profit warnings about their residential development units due to weak Q1 markets. Atrium Ljungberg and Fastpartner reported Q1 results, and we offer our read-across to the sector. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.91% for 2023e and 5.26% for 2024e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
Reinstated recommendation and start of Q1 reporting season
This week, we reinstated a recommendation on SBB Norden and Atrium Ljungberg kicked off the Q1 reporting season. Corem carried out a large transaction, Nyfosa stated it would complete a bond repurchase, and Colliers reported muted transaction markets in the Nordics. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 5.04% for 2023e and 5.40% for 2024e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
Equity injection season has started
Q1 began with a steady stream of equity injections in the sector, a risk we see continuing with inbound bond maturities, stressed IG rating thresholds, and pressured ICR covenants. The sector yield gap has improved somewhat following weak performance, but the risk premium remains well below historical averages. Given current funding risks, we reiterate an underweight stance.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
CORE B COREM PROPERTY GROUP (B)
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
Another share issue
This week, Cibus raised SEK810m in a directed share issue, we reinstated a recommendation on JM, Castellum made its acting CEO permanent; Swedish Logistics Property made a logistics acquisition, and it was reported the Swedish government might look at changing the rules for regulated residential presumptive rents. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.98% for 2023e and 5.33% for 2024e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
A volatile week
The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), Swedish CPI for February and ECB rate hikes all made for a volatile week in the Nordic real estate sector. In other news, Corem agreed to sell more assets, and Catena agreed to buy a logistics park. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.98% for 2023e and 5.33% for 2024e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
Slow market, ESG rules inbound
Colliers (previously Pangea Property) reported the lowest monthly Nordic transaction volumes since 2014 for February. The European Parliament is due to debate the proposed changes in energy performance in buildings legislation next week; we see this as likely to lead to higher capex. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.92% for 2023e and 5.27% for 2024e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
A fallen angel
This week, Balder became the first ‘fallen angel’ in the Nordic real estate sector after Moody’s downgraded its credit rating from investment grade (Baa3) to high-yield (Ba1), although it still has an investment grade rating from S&P (BBB neg outlook). Elsewhere, David Mindus, CEO of Sagax, was nominated as a board member at Nyfosa. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.88% for 2023e and 5.22% for 2024e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
Capital issues and Q4 results
Castellum announced a cSEK10bn fully underwritten rights issue on Monday, while NP3 raised SEK635m in equity on Tuesday and Balder issued a EUR480m convertible bond on Thursday. In other news, several companies reported Q4 results. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.44% for 2023e and 4.96% for 2024e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
Aurora Eiendom (Buy, TP: NOK125.00) - Low liquidity but upside potenti...
Q4 rental income exceeded our forecast, and with lower-than-expected financing costs, FFO was 12% above our estimate. Property values fell less than reported by peers so far, which we consider fair given its higher yields and strong underlying performance. The stock remains illiquid, but fundamentally we see good upside potential. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to NOK125 (120).
- Simen Mortensen
A BUY, a HOLD, and a SELL
This week, Pandox (BUY, TP SEK170), Fabege (HOLD, TP SEK100), and Wallenstam (SELL, TP SEK40) reported their Q4 results. Also, FastPartner lowered the quarterly DPS for its common shares and D-shares – one of the first large companies in the sector to cut dividends for its D-shares in order to strengthen its balance sheet and credit rating metrics with a view to maintaining an investment grade credit rating. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.21% for 2022e an...
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
- Simen Mortensen
Mixed residential data, higher CPI and deals
Swedish residential prices and new house sales continued to fall in December, but Norway saw a pause in its price declines. Swedish CPI figures for last month were above consensus. There were also some minor deals and updates. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.15% for 2022e and 4.65% for 2023e.
OLT OLAV THON EIENDOMSSELSKAP ASA
BALD B FASTIGHETS AB BALDER CLASS B
CAST CASTELLUM AB
CATE CATENA AB
WALL B WALLENSTAM AB CLASS B
ATRLJ B ATRIUM LJUNGBERG AB CLASS B
KMCP KMC PROPERTIES
ENTRA ENTRA ASA
POX PANDOX AB CLASS B
SBB B SAMHALLSBYGGNADSBOLAGET I NORDEN AB CLASS B
FABG FABEGE AB
WIHL WIHLBORGS FASTIGHETER AB
KOJAMO KOJAMO OYJ
CTY1S CITYCON OYJ
NYF NYFOSA AB
AURA AURORA DESIGN PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.