Having flirted with the 495-point mark on Friday, which could have triggered an extension of the correction, the market has rebounded well since then. Our technical analysis highlights a configuration in which we are only at the start of a powerful rally. Target of 622 points for Stoxx 600 index (+11%) by the end of the year confirmed. Prefer banks to insurance companies in the short term. - ...
Après avoir frôlé vendredi la barre des 495 points qui aurait pu déclencher la poursuite de la correction, le marché a ensuite bien rebondi. Notre analyse technique met en lumière une configuration où nous ne serions qu’au début d’un rallye puissant. Objectif 622 points (+11%) d’ici à la fin de l’année confirmé sur le Stoxx 600. Préférer les banques aux assurances à court terme. - ...
>All line items materially above consensus forecast - FLOW came out with a set of blowout figures this morning, whereby all P&L line items came materially above consensus forecast. NTI in the quarter was € 127.1m, which is 57% above estimates and implying a material acceleration QoQ. The company does not break down NTI per region this time around, however we believe that both EMEA and US was strong given that both regions run crypto-trading operations. EBITDA came str...
Azelis: Strong margin performance in weak trading results in 3% EBITA beat. BE Semiconductor Industries: 1Q24 results; prolonged downcycle. Coca-Cola Europacific Partners plc: Messy but good. DWS: Record breaking. Flow Traders: Crypto Kings. Fugro: Here we go again. Kinepolis: Weak start to the year, but a bit better than feared. UCB: Changes in the group executive committee. Unilever: Heading in the right direction. Vonovia: Disposal of 4,500 apartments for €700m. Wolters Kl...
>Conclusion: a quarter dominated mostly by the acceleration in digital assets - Q1 2024 looks to be a quarter that was dominated predominantly by the acceleration in the digital assets space, fuelled by the spot Bitcoin ETF approval at the start of 2024. Core ETP and single-bond trading market dynamics were mixed in Q1 2024, hence we expect a muted performance from these two asset classes. Overall, we forecast NTI of € 82.4m in the quarter, implying 13.3% growth QoQ. ...
>Market (briefly) happy with Q4 2023 results, likely fearing cuts to dividend policy - Last Thursday (8 February) the shares popped c.7% intraday on fairly uneventful Q4 2023 results. The share price reaction came as a surprise to us, and many others. We believe the market was (temporarily) happy with FLOW reiterating its dividend policy of a 50% payout ratio of IFRS net profits. This came as a relief, as the street was fearing changes to the capital allocation policy...
>NTI missing the street by 6.9%, however norm. EBITDA 1.5bps better - Overall we think FLOW posted a mixed set of results in Q4 2023. Revenue came 6.9% below css expectations, however profitability was slightly ahead (1.5bps on norm. EBITDA), and net profit was 4.1% ahead of expectations (on norm. basis). The reason for bottom line beat was decline in the headcount over Q4 2023. As a consequence, the company had a good quarter in terms of cost management, which stacks...
>Conclusion: market conditions not yet in the sweet spot, Neutral reiterated - - Q4 2023 volumes accelerated well across all end-markets on a QoQ basis, albeit from a low base. That said, the low volatility environment in the core ETP market was a clear drag to NTI. We expect a somewhat higher contribution to NTI this quarter from the single bond and digital assets trading strategy. Overall, we forecast NTI of € 74.1m in Q4 2023, up 10% QoQ, but still down c.36% YoY given ...
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