reports
- Julian Dobrovolschi
Flow Traders : Growing visibility on short- to medium-term triggers le...
We raise our TP to € 23.4 and switch our rating back to Outperform on FLOW. The reason for our upgrade is two-fold. In the short-term, we expect the US elections (5 November) to lead to higher market volatility and volume growth, these being the main ingredients for revenue generation. Over the medium term however, we see a path for FLOW to structurally grow its trading capital organically at a 15% CAGR, reaching € 1bn by FY 2027. - - >Upgrading to Outperform on US electio...
- Emira Sagaama
- Michael B. Schäfer
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
TFI TELEVISION FRANCAISE 1 SA
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
LSS LECTRA SA
EBRO EBRO FOODS SA
MBB MBB INDUSTRIES SE
G24 SCOUT24 AG
ELIS ELIS SA
MAREL MAREL HF.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ROYAL VOPAK NV
DLG DE'LONGHI S.P.A.
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
MELE MELEXIS NV
SPIE SPIE SA
GLPG GALAPAGOS NV
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
DUFN DUFRY AG
RUI RUBIS SCA
ALD ALD SA
BFSA BEFESA SA
VOS VOSSLOH AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
CLA CLARANOVA SE
ZEL PHARMA MAR SA
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
FPE3 FUCHS PETROLUB SE
STM STABILUS SE
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
PLX PLUXEE NV
- Emira Sagaama
- Michael B. Schäfer
SOP SOPRA STERIA GROUP SA
TFI TELEVISION FRANCAISE 1 SA
VETO VETOQUINOL SA
LSS LECTRA SA
EBRO EBRO FOODS SA
MBB MBB INDUSTRIES SE
G24 SCOUT24 AG
ELIS ELIS SA
MAREL MAREL HF.
AIXA AIXTRON SE
ATS AT & S AUSTRIA TECHNOLOGIE & SYSTEMTECHNIK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
ROYAL VOPAK NV
DLG DE'LONGHI S.P.A.
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
MELE MELEXIS NV
SPIE SPIE SA
GLPG GALAPAGOS NV
IDR INDRA SISTEMAS S.A. CLASS A
UNI UNICAJA BANCO S.A.
DUFN DUFRY AG
RUI RUBIS SCA
ALD ALD SA
BFSA BEFESA SA
VOS VOSSLOH AG
WAVE WAVESTONE SA
CLA CLARANOVA SE
ZEL PHARMA MAR SA
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
TE TECHNIP ENERGIES NV
FPE3 FUCHS PETROLUB SE
STM STABILUS SE
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
PLX PLUXEE NV
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Aalberts: 3Q24 preview - no signs of recovery expected. AB InBev: All to play for in the final quarter. Arcadis: A mixed bag. Ayvens: Struggling to get out of neutral. dsm-firmenich: Taking your vitamins is healthy. D'Ieteren: Belron equity at €23.5bn, EV €32.2bn in minority shareholder transaction. Euronext: 3Q24 and CMD Preview. Flow Traders: Bumper harvest. Heijmans: 3Q24 as expected, keeps FY outlook in place. Proximus: Key politician pushing for major governance shake up. ...
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
UCB UCB S.A.
DIE D'IETEREN SA
REC RECTICEL SA
HEIJM HEIJMANS N.V. CERT
VLK
ARCAD VAN LANSCHOT KEMPEN NV CERT. OF SHS
AALB ARCADIS NV
ABI AALBERTS N.V.
ALD ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV SA/NV
SHEL ALD SA
FLOW SHELL PLC
DSFIR FLOW TRADERS LTD
KONINKLIJKE DSM N.V.
- Julian Dobrovolschi
Flow Traders : Q3 results a big relief, shares likely to outperform to...
>Results above expectations, driven by dislocations in equities in EU and APAC - FLOW came out with a strong set of Q3 figures this morning, which were materially above consensus expectations. Group NTI came in at € 107.3m, 27% above expectations, and implying a strong QoQ acceleration of 35%. Strong performance was recorded across all regions. EBITDA margin was 44.1%, a beat of 11p.p to consensus, given the rather fix cost nature of the business resulting in strong o...
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Jacob Mekhael
- Kristof Samoy
- Michiel Declercq
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- ING Helpdesk
- Julian Dobrovolschi
Flow Traders : Q3 2024e NTI of € 84.3m, EBITDA of € 27.3m (32.4% margi...
>Conclusion: a slightly better quarter due to heightened volatility in the cash markets and normalised trading conditions in fixed income and cryptos - Flow Traders’ third quarter was marked by slightly improved trading conditions in the core ETP business, with the revenue pool growing 11.5% QoQ (AAOBe), and somewhat normalised trading conditions in the fixed income and crypto markets. All these led to decent NTI generation in the quarter across all asset classes and...
- Juan Ros-Padilla
EO FAURECIA SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALCAR CARMAT SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
TRI TRIGANO SA
NEX NEXANS SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
FYB FORMYCON AG
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
TLGO TALGO SA
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
SIE SIEMENS AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
WAGA WAGA ENERGY SA
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
- Juan Ros-Padilla
EO FAURECIA SA
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
ALCAR CARMAT SA
ALO ALSTOM SA
TRI TRIGANO SA
NEX NEXANS SA
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
SHA SCHAEFFLER AG
MONC MONCLER SPA
FYB FORMYCON AG
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
TLGO TALGO SA
PSG PROSEGUR COMPANIA DE SEGURIDAD SA
SIE SIEMENS AG
VOS VOSSLOH AG
CAF CONSTRUCCIONES Y AUXILIAR DE FERROCARRILES S.A.
KBX KNORR-BREMSE AG
SRAIL STADLER RAIL AG
WAGA WAGA ENERGY SA
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASR: 1H small beat, KNAB add-on to Solvency 2 higher. Avantium: Down to the wire. Flow Traders: Pump up the volume. Greenyard: 1Q24/25 preview. Kendrion: Navigating difficult end markets. Montea: Solid results with no surprises, guidance reiterated. NEPI Rockcastle: Guidance raised, M&A opportunities on the radar. Tessenderlo: 1H24 Adj. EBITDA miss of 5%, lower FY guidance
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Julian Dobrovolschi
Flow Traders : Change in narrative initiated, with a mixed market rece...
>Debt portion small, but the direction of travel is worth noting - The recent Q2 print was marked by three negative factors: 1) miss to consensus estimates, 2) further market share deterioration, and 3) the suspension of the dividend; and one positive - € 25m in debt for trading capital upsizing. This is a small figure (c.4% of current trading capital), however we think the direction of travel is noteworthy. This is the first step which FLOW will use as a proof-of-con...
- Jason Kalamboussis
- Reg Watson
- CFA
Flow Traders/Divid-end/HOLD
The Flow Traders' share price has fallen by c.20% since the 2Q24 results and suspension of the dividend. We review our earnings forecast and valuation, and come to the conclusion that Flow Traders is likely to deliver a through cycle RoE of c.14%. As a result, we expect the company to trade around book value of €14.30 per share and reduce our 12-month target price to this level (previously €17.92) while maintaining our HOLD recommendation.
- Jerôme Bodin
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
BEKB BEKAERT SA
VCT VICAT-CIMENTS VICAT SA
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
TFI TELEVISION FRANCAISE 1 SA
BIO BB BIOTECH AG
ALCLA CLASQUIN SA
DEC JCDECAUX SA
ASY ASSYSTEM SA
BLC BASTIDE LE CONFORT MEDICAL SA
ALTR ALTRI SGPS SA
CGM CEGEDIM SA
SRP SRP GROUPE SA
FII LISI SA
LSS LECTRA SA
LNA LNA SANTE SA
GBT GUERBET SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
ATE ALTEN SA
FR VALEO SE
ERA ERAMET SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
MBWS MARIE BRIZARD WINE & SPIRITS SA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
ROYAL VOPAK NV
SESL SES-IMAGOTAG SA
SEFER SERGEFERRARI GROUP SA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
WBD WEBUILD S.P.A.
INSD VERIMATRIX SA
SPIE SPIE SA
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
SMCP SMCP SA
BFSA BEFESA SA
VOS VOSSLOH AG
2CRSI 2CRSI SA
NEOEN NEOEN S.A.
HAG HENSOLDT AG
VK VALLOUREC SA
ALHRS HYDROGEN REFUELING SOLUTIONS
FORSE FORSEE POWER SA
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
- Jerôme Bodin
PROX PROXIMUS SA DE DROIT PUBLIC
BEKB BEKAERT SA
VCT VICAT-CIMENTS VICAT SA
BFIT BASIC-FIT NV
GTT GAZTRANSPORT & TECHNIGAZ SA
NXI NEXITY SA CLASS A
TFI TELEVISION FRANCAISE 1 SA
BIO BB BIOTECH AG
ALCLA CLASQUIN SA
DEC JCDECAUX SA
ASY ASSYSTEM SA
BLC BASTIDE LE CONFORT MEDICAL SA
ALTR ALTRI SGPS SA
CGM CEGEDIM SA
SRP SRP GROUPE SA
FII LISI SA
LSS LECTRA SA
LNA LNA SANTE SA
GBT GUERBET SA
GOE GROUPE GORGE SA
ATE ALTEN SA
FR VALEO SE
ERA ERAMET SA
ELIS ELIS SA
COFB COFINIMMO SA
MBWS MARIE BRIZARD WINE & SPIRITS SA
SOC SUBSEA 7 S.A.
ROYAL VOPAK NV
SESL SES-IMAGOTAG SA
SEFER SERGEFERRARI GROUP SA
WAF SILTRONIC AG
WBD WEBUILD S.P.A.
INSD VERIMATRIX SA
SPIE SPIE SA
TEC TECHNIPFMC PLC
XFAB X-FAB SILICON FOUNDRIES SE
HOME NEINOR HOMES SA
SMCP SMCP SA
BFSA BEFESA SA
VOS VOSSLOH AG
2CRSI 2CRSI SA
NEOEN NEOEN S.A.
S30 SOLUTIONS 30 SE
HAG HENSOLDT AG
VK VALLOUREC SA
ALHRS HYDROGEN REFUELING SOLUTIONS
FORSE FORSEE POWER SA
SPM SAIPEM S.P.A.
FLOW FLOW TRADERS LTD
AF AIR FRANCE - KLM
- Julian Dobrovolschi
Flow Traders : Q2 2024 results missing consensus, dividend suspended a...
>Q2 2024 results materially missing consensus - FLOW came out with a disappointing set of figures, missing consensus forecast across most of line items. ETP value traded missed by 10.8%, whereby both EMEA and US volumes came about 10% below expectations. FLOW reported NTI of € 79.5m, missing expectations by 16.1%. In the mix however, EMEA came slightly ahead however US was very disappointing at 49.6% below forecasts. EBITDA was € 21.1m, a 27.7% margin which is in rela...
- Guy Sips
- Hilde Van Boxstael
- Lynn Hautekeete
- Michiel Declercq
- Sharad Kumar S.P
- Thomas Couvreur
- Wim Hoste
- Wim Lewi
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
Allfunds Group plc: 1H24 preview, Basic-Fit: 1H24 beats; outlook FY24 reiterated and on track; solid, Bekaert: 1H24 sales miss, EBITu and guidance in line, Belgian Telecoms: Fixed infra deal in Flanders, Proximus takes over Fiberklaar, Belgian Telecoms: Peer Telenet 2Q24 results, Cofinimmo: Limited divestments, Euronext: What's next?, Flow Traders: They think it's all over. It is now. Heijmans: Strong set of 1H24 results, raises FY outlook, KPN: VodafoneZiggo 2Q24 Results confi...
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