Positive signs for copper & zinc, none for steel

Strong '25e volume growth at cheap valuation

Granges AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at Granges AB bought 20,100 shares at between 122.620SEK and 124.500SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 55/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the l...

In line Q3 and better Q4 volume guidance

Higher estimate risk from slowing end-markets

Strong performance is priced in

Q3e: higher volumes y-o-y, but headwinds from price/cost and FX. We raise EBIT estimates by 1-3% for '24e-'26e. Strong performance is priced in, so we keep HOLD.

Strong Q2 earnings and Q3 volume guidance

A steal of a deal, but too early to get excited

Shandong deal looks financially and strategically solid but likely no material EPS impact until '26e, so we keep HOLD. Q2e: +26% q-o-q EBIT growth, mainly on higher volumes.

Goes big in China

Strong run limits the upside, down to HOLD

Limited upside after share +38% L90D, down to HOLD (Buy). Volume recovery in '24e is factored into estimates. TP and org. estimates unchanged, EBIT down 1-2% on FX.

More growth is coming

Q2e moving parts: higher volumes, FX tailwind. Solid volume outlook for '24e as de-stocking subsides. We keep BUY with a new TP of SEK 140 (136).

Volume-driven EBIT beat

Sector Fast Comment - HVAC&R news: New call for ban on F-gases

Will accelerate transition towards low-GWP refrigerants Another positive overall, but challenging for OEMs Another tailwind for Beijer Ref in particular

Gränges - Upside is there, but will take some quarters

Slight Q3 miss, but cautious Q4 guidance the main worry ‘22e-‘24e adj. EBIT down 3/5/3%; 21% CAGR ‘21-‘24e Keep BUY, TP SEK 115 (120)

Gränges - Slight miss, and cautious Q4 guidance

Volumes -2%, adj. EBIT -1% vs. cons Cautious Q4 guidance, 5-10% downside to cons Q4 EBIT Likely not good enough to lift the share

Gränges - Another quarter of higher volumes and EBIT

Q3 report due on Thursday, 20 October, at 07:30 CET ‘22e EBIT -1%, ‘23e-‘24e EBIT down 11-8% (FX +3%) Keep BUY, TP SEK 120 (135), 65% upside

Sector Fast Comment - HVAC&R news: US ratifies Kigali Amendment

Key to global reduction in HFC refrigerants / “F-gases” Another supportive factor for HVAC&R demand Pos: ALFA, GRNG, MTRS, NIBE, BEIJ not yet in the US

Gränges - Earnings resilience continues to impress

8% EBIT beat vs. cons on solid profitability Adj. EBIT up 4-8% in ‘22e-‘24e (2-6% FX); 25% CAGR Keep BUY, TP of SEK 135 (130), ~60% upside

Gränges - Profitability better than pre-announced

Volumes +1%, adj. EBIT +8% vs. cons Stable demand q-o-q into Q3, cons EBIT up 2-4% 2022e Slightly positive reaction warranted

Gränges - Clear and credible growth agenda at CMD

Building blocks in place for >10% annual EBIT growth… …but we lower ests due to weakening economic cycle Growth and valuation remain attractive; BUY