AI revolution is a key trend of the healthcare industry for the long term. It will drive innovation, improve efficiency and enhance patient outcomes. AI technologies hold transformative potential in various areas. By leveraging genomic, clinical and molecular data, it is changing medical diagnosis, drug R&D and delivery of precision medical care, ultimately leading to better medical outcomes. The internet healthcare and ICL segments are the most direct beneficiaries in the short term.
With slower-than-expected improvement in biotech funding, 2025 remains a challenging year for most biotech and CRO/CDMO companies. However, the delay of the Biosecure Act in 2024 offers a temporary reprieve for leading CRDMO companies. WuXi Bio and WuXi AppTec are likely to deliver faster revenue growth in 2025 vs 2024, supported by their competitive strength in obtaining new projects and customers, despite the considerable geopolitical risks. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
Biopharmaceutical companies are embracing the new year with new product approvals and out-licensing deals, while leading CRDMO companies are divesting their overseas businesses. We expect the biopharmaceutical segment to continue recovering, supported by a lower capital cost and constant innovative product launches in China and overseas. The considerable geopolitical risks, however, may continue to cloud the CRDMO segment’s growth outlook. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.
Expect increased market volatility in 1H25 as the US embarks on another round of trade rebalancing with China via higher tariffs. We expect China to roll out growth supportive policies on top of the de-risking measures that have been announced. Hence, we prefer a domestic orientation and policy beneficiaries for 1H25. Our MSCI China Index target is at 68pt, based on 7% EPS growth and 10.5x PE. The downside target is 51pt in the event of a full-fledged trade war. China is focusing on de-riskin...
Geopolitical tensions and weak economic conditions may cloud 2025’s growth outlook of the CRDMO, medical devices and services segments. However, the biopharma segment will see continued recovery, supported by a lower cost of capital and constant innovative product launches in China and even overseas. Leading internet healthcare players, with stabilising business models, also expect robust revenue growth and improving profitability. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
1HFY25 revenue grew 10.2% yoy, while adjusted net profit surged 52.2% yoy, in line with our and consensus’ FY25 estimates. Ali Health guides double-digit revenue growth for FY25-26, with healthcare products and OTC drugs as key growth drivers. We expect robust adjusted net profit CAGR of 31% for FY25-27, on an improving product mix towards healthcare products, and continued synergies in the marketing business. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$5.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Automobile China’s PV insurance registrations grew 27% yoy but fell 17% mom and 11% wow during 4-10 Nov 24. Major carmakers saw a dip in insurance registrations in China last week. PEVs’ market share rose 1.8ppt wow to 54.1%. We conducted a detailed assessment of the impact of US tariffs on the companies under our coverage, as shown in the last page. We believe auto part manufacturers are more vulnerable than OEMs. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao, and...
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile: Weekly: PV sales dip wow while PEV market share increases. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Top BUYs: Geely, CATL, Fuyao Glass and Desay SV. Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$4.04/Target: HK$5.00): 1HFY25: Results in line; expect strong earnings growth momentum in FY25-26. Geely Auto (175 HK/BUY/HK$13.90/Target: HK$23.00): 3Q24: Core earnings up 81% yoy and 29% qoq, beating estimates. Maintain BUY. Raise target price from HK$21.50 to HK$23.00. J...
We expect the continuous interest rate cuts to lower R&D costs and accelerate innovative product launches for biopharmaceutical producers. This will support a continuous recovery of the healthcare industry for the next few years. Moreover, the highly-expected fiscal easing package may also be a potential catalyst for medical service and medical equipment players. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s healthcare sector.
Ali Health guided for revenue growth of 10% yoy and net margin of 5.5% for FY25. We revise our FY25 revenue and adjusted earnings growth estimates from 15%/39% to 10%/34% yoy respectively on the weaker-than-expected business environment but expect robust adjusted net earnings CAGR of 33% for FY25-27, driven by strong healthcare product demand and synergies of Alimama’s marketing business. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$4.70.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results New World Development (17 HK/SELL/HK$8.19/Target: HK$7.02) NWD reported HK$11.8b in attributable loss from continuing business for FY24. Dividend has been halted to accelerate deleveraging. Although its IP portfolio has remained resilient, sluggish Hong Kong property sales and high net gearing remain as key concerns. The new management has pledged to improve profitability. We think profitability recovery and dividend normalisation will take some time. Maintain SELL wit...
GREATER CHINA Results New World Development (17 HK/SELL/HK$8.19/Target: HK$7.02) FY24: Temporarily halts dividends; recovery of profitability takes time. Update Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$3.90/Target: HK$4.70) Non-drug healthcare products and marketing business to drive growth in FY25-27. Baidu Inc (9888 HK/HOLD/HK$95.75/Target: HK$90.00) Key highlights from Baidu Cloud Intelligence Conference 2024. INDONESIA Update Bank Negara Ind...
Most biopharmaceutical companies under our coverage posted robust 1H24 results, while others reported moderate growth or missed market estimates. We believe leading drug innovators will outperform, supported by continued new product launches, while weak economic conditions and policy uncertainties may continue to cloud the growth outlook for medical service providers and medical device players. Geopolitical risks remain a threat to CDMO majors. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Novo Nordisk’s Semaglutide and Eli Lilly’s Tirzepatide are expected to obtain market approval for obesity treatment in China in 2024. Targeting both T2D and obesity indications, domestic players are racing in the development of GLP-1 RA innovative drugs and Semaglutide biosimilars. China’s GLP-1 market competition will stiffen soon. With the early mover advantage, superior efficacy and safety profile of Mazdutile, Innovent will stand out from the crowd. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s healthca...
Ali Health reported flat FY24 revenue growth of 1.0% yoy, while adjusted net profit surged 90.8% yoy, significantly beating our and consensus estimates. It guides revenue growth of 15% and net margin of 5% for FY25, with an improving product mix towards healthcare products, continued synergies of the marketing business, and enhancement of operational efficiency. We expect total revenue CAGR of 14.6% in FY24-26. Maintain BUY with a higher target price of HK$4.20.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$3.38/Target: HK$4.20) Ali Health reported flat FY24 revenue growth of 1.0% yoy, while adjusted net profit surged 90.8% yoy, significantly beating our and consensus estimates. It guides revenue growth of 15% and net margin of 5% for FY25, with an improving product mix towards healthcare products, continued synergies of the marketing business, and enhancement of operational efficiency. We expect total revenue CAGR of 14...
GREATER CHINA Results Alibaba Health Information Technology (241 HK/BUY/HK$3.38/Target: HK$4.20): FY24: Bottom line beat estimates; guiding 15% yoy revenue growth and net margin of 5% in FY25. INDONESIA Update Astra International (ASII IJ/SELL/Rp4,510/Target: Rp3,900): Sales declines for the 10th consecutive month; weakness to last till end-24. MALAYSIA Results CelcomDigi (CDB MK/HOLD/RM4.00/Target: RM4.50): 1Q24: Within expectations. Stock offers 4% dividend yield for 2024 as management focus...
Ali Health guides for a 5% revenue decline and 30% adjusted earnings growth yoy for FY24, and targets revenue and earnings growth of 15% and 70% yoy respectively for FY25. We lower our FY24/25 revenue growth estimates from 14%/21% to -5%/15% respectively for slower-than-expected business expansion, but remain optimistic on its long-term growth outlook, with solid healthcare product demand, and synergies of Alimama’s marketing business. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of HK$4.00.
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Economics PMI First expansion in six months. Sector Aviation Airlines: Expecting a turnaround in profitability in 2024 with moderate international travel recovery. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT. Macau Gaming Mar 24 GGR up 6% mom; May 24 Golden Week a potential catalyst. Results China Feihe (6186 HK/BUY/HK$3.68/Target: HK$4.43) 2023: Results in line; healthy channel inventory and improved operating efficiency to drive growth. Upgrade to BUY. China Longyuan Power (916 HK/BUY/HK$5.4...
China’s draft plan is expected to develop a more efficient and supportive ecosystem for drug innovation. We believe the government will support the development of a stronger and more innovative healthcare industry by providing more financial and regulatory resources in the next few years. Facing political headwinds, leading CRDMO players may benefit from the brighter outlook of China’s healthcare industry in the longer term. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on China’s healthcare sector.
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