reports
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
AB InBev: Cash is King. Adecco: 4Q24 result beats by 6%, stabilising trends in 4Q24, balance sheet relief. ASM International: 1H25 guidance slightly better but orders missed in 4Q24. Colruyt: Expects to open OKay stores on Sundays. Deceuninck: Soft FY24 results due to Turkey. DEME Group: Strong FCF. JDE Peet's: Mean green beans. Kinepolis: Peer AMC 4Q24 results. NEPI Rockcastle: Strong performance at all levels. Wolters Kluwer: FY24 results; in line, new CEO in 2026
- Francesca Ferragina
Benelux Real Estate sector update/Wind of change
With an improving macroeconomic outlook and companies trading at appealing multiples, we are positive on the Benelux real estate sector (current discount to 2024F NAV of 25.6% vs average 2019-23 premium of 4% for our coverage universe). We believe the transaction market is set to reopen as companies step out of defensive mode with valuations stabilising and balance sheets in order. Following some first meaningful deals seen in 4Q24, we expect more to come. During 2025, we expect the attention to...
- ING Helpdesk
- Amal Aboulkhouatem
(Sponsored) NEPI Rockcastle - Acquisition of Silesia City Center in Po...
NEPI Rockcastle signed a binding agreement to acquire the Silesia City Center in Poland for EUR 405m.The investment yield was not disclosed but should be slightly above 7% based on our estimates.LTV should remain below 31% following this transaction.
- Francesca Ferragina
NEPI Rockcastle/Updating estimates/BUY
The 3Q24 results saw sound operational trends on many levels: rents up 8.4% LFL, 9% organic growth in tenants' sales, and a comfortable 12.5% occupancy cost ratio. What we like most at NEPI are its growth ambitions (fuelled by a 29% LTV after the recent capital increase), especially when it comes to new investments and acquisitions. We see potential for the company to be the consolidator in the emerging CEE retail markets. We have updated our estimates on the back of the Magnolia acquisition (c....
- ING Helpdesk
- Amal Aboulkhouatem
(Sponsored) NEPI Rockcastle - Solid 9M business update
9M net operating income stood at EUR 411m, up 12.3% YoY.9M tenant sales remained strong at +9% YoY (LfL, excl. hypermarkets).Occupancy increased 40bps vs June end to 97.7%.LTV is down to a comfortable 30.7%, down 170bps vs June end, following the EUR 300m capital increase.NEPI has reaffirmed its guidance updated in August 2024 based on an expected DEPS for the year to be approximately 5.5% higher than the DEPS of 56.98 cents per share in 2024 and a payout ratio of 90%.
- Francesca Ferragina
NEPI Rockcastle/Feedback from Bucharest CMD/BUY
The interesting CMD in Bucharest confirmed the ambitions of the company. Growth will come from many levels: organically, new development, new investments and the green energy business. We were impressed by the two assets visited (Promenada and Mega Mall) given their scale (39k and 76k sqm of GLA, respectively), modern feel and ample variety of tenants. We confirm our BUY and target price of €8.0.
- ING Helpdesk
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
EM issuance continued at a healthy pace this week, while the macro backdrop continues to point to further monetary easing in developed markets. We expect a slowing in the pace of supply to act as a technical tailwind, keeping spreads well anchored into the end of the year.
- ING Helpdesk
- ING Helpdesk
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
- Oleksiy Soroka
- CFA
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
Markets were calmer last week as investors continue to look towards potential rate cuts in the US in September. Chair Jerome Powell at his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, 23 August, sent strong signals that the Fed is ready to cut key rates. “The time has come for policy to adjust. The direction of travel is clear". Markets now price up to 100bp in US key rates cut till the end of the year and a further 125bp of cuts next year. We view the macro backdrop as supportive for EM credit, while new sup...
YKBNK YAPI VE KREDI BANKASI A.S.
ISCTR TURKIYE IS BANKASI ANONIM SIRKETI CLASS C
PUMA PUMA ENERGY ZAMBIA PLC
AKBNK AKBANK TAS
103M SASOL LIMITED
QNBFB QNB FINANSBANK A.S.
TSKB TURKIYE SINAI KALKINMA BANKASI AS
TTRAK TURK TRAKTOR VE ZIRAAT MAKINELERI A.S.
VAKBN TURKIYE VAKIFLAR BANKASI TURK ANONIM ORTAKLIGI
19XX NEPI ROCKCASTLE N.V.
- ING Helpdesk
Benelux Morning Notes
ASR: 1H small beat, KNAB add-on to Solvency 2 higher. Avantium: Down to the wire. Flow Traders: Pump up the volume. Greenyard: 1Q24/25 preview. Kendrion: Navigating difficult end markets. Montea: Solid results with no surprises, guidance reiterated. NEPI Rockcastle: Guidance raised, M&A opportunities on the radar. Tessenderlo: 1H24 Adj. EBITDA miss of 5%, lower FY guidance
- Amal Aboulkhouatem
(Sponsored) NEPI Rockcastle - Solid 1H results
• Net operating income was up 13.5% YoY to EUR 274m. Net operating income was up 10 % on a LfL basis.• EPRA earnings landed at EUR 199.96m, up 12.6% YoY. On a per share basis, EPS was up 8.3% YoY to EUR 0.3026.• EPRA occupancy stood at 97.7 %, up 10 bps vs December end.• EPRA NTA increased by 3.6 % vs December end to EUR 7.20 per share• EPRA LTV stood at 32.4%, down 60 bps vs December end• NEPI has revised the guidance released in February 2024 and now expects DEPS for the year to be approximate...
- ING Helpdesk
- Francesca Ferragina
NEPI Rockcastle/Solid foundations for growth/BUY (initiating coverage)
We initiate coverage of NEPI Rockcastle with a BUY rating and €8.0 target price. The group has a c.€7bn shopping centre portfolio in Central Eastern Europe, mainly in Romania (38%) and Poland (26%). With a 31.5% LTV, the lowest among retailers, and firepower of c.€900m (up to 40% LTV), we see ample room for new investments but also for transformational deals such as the acquisition of an existing portfolio/company, a move that could allow substantial acceleration of growth beyond current develop...
- Inna Maslova
(Sponsored) NEPI Rockcastle - Strong Q1 results
Net operating income landed at EUR 135m, up 12.7% YoY (+9.4% on LfL basis) on the back of higher rents and tight management of operating costs.Tenant sales continued to increase and were up 10.5% YoY (excl. supermarkets) with an average basket size growing by ca. 9%. The best performing sectors were Health & Beauty (+19%) and Services (+18%). Sporting goods were down 2.3%.Occupancy increased 20bps YoY to 97.8%. NEPI reaffirms its 2024 distributable earnings per share guidance to be at ca. 4% Yo...
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
With the Fed out of the way and markets no longer pricing in significant easing this year, there could be a window for some calm in EM credit markets. We expect a further pickup in issuance in this environment, while the pull of high all-in yields should continue to draw in investor demand.
- Egor Fedorov
- James Wilson
EM Credit Spark/EM credit weekly
UST yields ticked higher this week amid a lack of macro data, while EM credit in general performed well. We expect spreads should remain well supported in the current environment but see little scope for valuations to grind much tighter absent a clearer policy shift from central banks or positive geopolitical news.
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