Danish construction and building materials — laying the foundation

Danish non-residential construction market continues to look robust. Weather data points to a wet start to the year, causing some project delays. We see a less volatile FX environment ahead.

40% drop in applications for energy renovations in France in Q1

Improving bottom line but visibility still limited

EBIT before special items raised by 4-16%. Slightly below '24 guidance on sales, in line on EBIT. TP unchanged at DKK 77; HOLD reiterated.

Nearing 10Y low, do not see guidance as trigger

We expect guidance of flat organic growth and EBIT before special items of DKK 80-90m. TP DKK 77 (85) , HOLD.

Slightly weaker '24, but stronger beyond

'24e estimates lowered by 2-4%; '25-26e raised by 0-2%. Strong Q1 cash flow could open up for buybacks, in our view. BUY, TP unchanged at DKK 390.

Weak earnings but strong order intake. Guidance maintained

Completes disposal of Faroe Islands; Ambitions for stable cash flow in...

Estimates up on order intake forecast

Estimate revisions of 3-4%. We are in line on sales, 2% ahead on EBIT, 5% below on orders. BUY; DKK 390 unchanged.

Building a stronger, profitable growth company

Robust guidance with earnings outlook ahead of expectations. New CEO a passion for ESG and on delivering profitable growth. Disposal of non-core activities proceeding as planned.

Entering 2024 with a robust order book

2024e-25e sales and EBIT cuts of 2-6%. Based on robust order book, we forecast 2024e sales of DKK 10.2bn. Order timing, macro uncertainty could result in guidance being lower.

Our concerns were unjustified

We revise our '24e-and '25e by -1% and lower our EBIT forecasts by -4 %, mainly on higher employee costs, which leaves us 3-5% ahead of pre-Q4 company-collected consensus.

Surprisingly strong guidance; Buy-back announced

Guidance likely to be very conservative

Uncertainty with respect to demand, competitor actions, and weather likely to mute guidance. We forecast flat organic revenue growth and EBIT of DKK 495m for '24e. TP raised to DKK 1,956 (1,855), HOLD (Buy).

Model update following FY'23 results

Sales and Earnings forecasts raised by 8-16%. We end up slightly ahead of guidance and consensus for 2024. BUY, TP raised to DKK 390 (380).

Weak Q4 results but strong order intake. Guidance 0-2% below consensus

Heads-up for annual report on 19 December

EU Council and Parliament reach agreement on Renovation Wave

Continued high mortgage activity in Poland in November

Impressions from analyst call with CFO

Relatively stable stone wool vs foam share in Germany