Swedish policy rate cut, an upgrade and a downgrade

Sweden’s Riksbank cut the policy rate this week to 3.75% (4.0%); our estimates are based on another four cuts by end-2025. During the week we upgraded Veidekke to BUY, downgraded Castellum to HOLD, and reiterated our HOLD on Kojamo and SELL on Hufvudstaden and Sagax. The average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.40% for 2024e and 4.79% for 2025e.

GN Store Nord: 1 director

A director at GN Store Nord bought 7,000 shares at 201.500DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Carlsberg AS: 1 director

A director at Carlsberg AS bought 200 shares at 923.800DKK and the significance rating of the trade was 54/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

CMD sees GN increasingly investable

GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK250.00) - Management setting the direction

We view the CMD as another step in rebuilding credibility. Key highlights included new financial aspirations for 2025–2028, insights into the One-GN strategy and deep dives into key markets, with management providing long-term market growth outlooks. We believe GN is ahead of its deleveraging plan and investor focus has shifted to the underlying business. We reiterate our BUY and DKK250 target price.

Weekly Real Estate Matrix

Performance and valuation data for Nordic real estate stocks as of 3 May 2024.

Positive news at ESTRO

Q1 reporting continues

This week, Castellum and Balder reported Q1 results, Wihlborgs announced a new lease, and SBB corrected 2023 profits and dissolved Unobo. Norges Bank has signalled interest rates might stay higher for longer. K2A has halted preference dividend payments. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.69% for 2024e and 4.97% for 2025e.

+450bp gross margin underpins turnaround

A strong start to 2024 with 5-13% divisional profit beats. +450bp gross margin expansion validates turnaround story. BUY on deep values and turnaround, TP DKK 235 (225).

GN Group (Buy, TP: DKK250.00) - Gaining confidence in management

The Q1 results beat our expectations and consensus, with c5% organic growth and a 12.5% EBITA margin, driven by the Hearing division, while Enterprise and Gaming & Consumer saw c0% organic revenue growth in still-muted markets. The 2024 guidance was maintained for organic sales growth of 2–8%, an EBITA margin of 12–14%, and FCF of >DKK700m. At the upcoming CMD, we expect focus to be on One-GN and market outlook. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to DKK250 (230).

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 02/05/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 05/02/2024

We are removing GALP from our ODDO BHF European Large Caps list. The stock has chalked up a performance of +31.3% since its inclusion in the list on 20 March. Our analyst is adopting today a Neutral recommendation (vs Outperform) on the stock. - ...

GN Store Nord : Strong hearing aid business, stabilisation at Enterpri...

>Q1 review – Strong beat on bottom line - GN Store Nord achieved Q1 revenues of DKK 4,303m (+2.1% y-o-y, 0%/+1% vs ODDO BHF/consensus). Q1 adj. EBITA reached DKK 538m (+218% y-o-y, margin 12.5%), which was a strong beat by 35% of our estimates and by 32% vs consensus. EPS reached DKK 1.74 (vs DKK 0.87/0.85 expected). The 2024 guidance is confirmed.GN Hearing - Excellent organic growth on new Nexia platform - GN Hearing’s Q1 revenues of DKK 1,737m (+7....

Growth and margin beat in key business'

Cost efficiency and growth story priced in

Q1: Adj. net profit +3% vs. ABGSCe and -4% vs. cons. on cost & tax. Adj. EPS up 2% and 4% for '24e-'25e (income, costs & LLP). At 1.5x P/NAV it's a well priced growth & efficiency story: HOLD (Buy).

Guidance looks low and consensus high

2024e forecasts unchanged, '25e-'26e up by 1-2%. Q1 was a good start to a busy year. HOLD, TP of DKK 1,000.

Carlsberg (Buy, TP: DKK1110.00) - Solid start to the year

Overall, we consider the Q1 results a solid start to the year, with China’s and the premium beer momentum especially encouraging and supporting our view that the unchanged 2024 guidance looks conservative. We see room for positive earnings momentum throughout the year, with good weather providing upside potential. We thus reiterate our BUY and DKK1,110 target price.

Sparebanken Vest (Buy, TP: NOK139.00) - Continued strong ROE and growt...

Boosted by the tax advantage of customer dividends, continued strong lending growth, YOY cost reductions and robust asset quality, SVEG reported a Q1 ROE of 21.6%. Moreover, with the approval and implementation of new IRB risk models, in addition to strong earnings, the CET1 ratio rose ~70bp QOQ. Trading at a 2025e P/E of ~9.2x, we continue to find the valuation undemanding, and reiterate our BUY and NOK139 target price.