Swedish food retail market: +0% in March

Sweden: the land of opportunity?

Calendar headwind & boycotts

Heading into a strong year

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Stocking up for 2025e

Q4 marked a solid end to 2024, and Axfood appeared upbeat on the outlook for 2025, as it eyes continued network expansion and productivity gains in its logistical operations. We reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price. We continue to like the earnings momentum into 2025e (16% EPS growth YOY) and that the shares are trading at a 16% discount to a historical 5-year average P/E.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Solid end to 2024

We consider this a positive report for Axfood, including Q4 adj. EBIT 3% above consensus, with the beat driven by Willy’s and Dagab along with tight cost control. We expect consensus 2025e adj. EBIT to come up c1–2% on the back of the results, and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Q4 results a touch above expectations

Q4 preview: a soft end to the year

Swedish food retail market: +3% in December

Swedish food retail market: +5% in November

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Focus on 2025 outlook

We are neutral ahead of the Q4 report, as we forecast slightly better results for its core segments, while City Gross is likely a drag near-term. We expect focus to be on the 2025 outlook, especially a firm timeline for its Dagab efficiency gains, and we continue to like the continued volume growth recovery in the industry. We reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price.

Swedish food retail market: +5% in October

Soft discount at a discount

Soft Q3 results

City Gross acquisition approved (corrected)

More growth, fewer hiccups

Swedish food prices +1.7% y-o-y in September

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Upcoming efficiency gains in focus

We are neutral ahead of the Q3 report, as we forecast sales growth momentum across all segments to be offset by still-negative effects near-term from the Bålsta ramp-up. We expect focus to be on Dagab efficiency gains in the coming quarters and into 2025, and we like the industry’s continued volume growth following a weak 2023. We reiterate our BUY and SEK320 target price.

Swedish food retail market: +4.4% in August

Swedish food retail market: +4.0% in July