Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Healthy Q1

We consider this a stable start to 2024, with the Q1 results more or less in line with consensus. The still-weak Swedish consumer continues to seek value for money and campaigns, but Axfood reported healthy volume growth and good customer traffic. Although the sales growth gap to the market is closing, we expect Axfood to perform well in 2024. We reiterate our BUY and SEK330 target price, having made only minor estimate changes.

The outlook remains positive

All-time-high earnings in Hemköp saved the quarter. 9% EPS CAGR in '24e-'25e. Reiterate BUY and our TP of SEK 320.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - A neutral Q1 report

We consider this a neutral report for Axfood, with adjusted EBIT more or less in line with consensus. Axfood continues to outgrow the market. We expect limited changes to consensus 2024e adj. EBIT on the results and expect a neutral share price reaction.

Q1 results in line with expectations

Retail Sector Report - ReTales Q4 2023

Retail Sector Report - ReTales Q4 2023

Retail Sector Report - ReTales Q4 2023

Retail Sector Report - ReTales Q4 2023

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK330.00) - Volumes in the industry improving

We are neutral ahead of Axfood’s Q1 report (due at 07:00 on 25 April), as we expect continued strong sales growth for Willys and improved efficiency for Dagab supporting lower costs. We also expect focus to be on its ongoing ramp-up at Bålsta and its synergies for 2024–2025e. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK330 (320) on higher estimates. We still like the earnings momentum and strong discount position in Sweden.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK320.00) - Well positioned for growth in 2024

Q4 marked a strong end to 2023, with Willy’s continuing to outperform peers and gain grocery market share. With a still-weak Swedish consumer environment (real income back at 2013 levels), we expect Axfood to continue to outperform in 2024 given its leading price position. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK320 (315) on higher estimates.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK315.00) - Strong figures from Willy’s

We consider this a positive report for Axfood, including better than expected results for all its business segments (except Dagab), an upbeat 2024 store guidance, and DPS above expectations. Willy’s adj. EBIT was 6% above consensus. We expect consensus 2024–2025e adj. EBIT to come up c1–2% on the back of the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK315.00) - Continued strength for 2024e

We are neutral ahead of Axfood’s Q4 report (due at 07:00 CET on 1 February), as we expect continued strong sales growth for Willys and improved efficiency for Dagab, supporting lower costs. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to SEK315 (300), as we roll over our valuation to 2024–2025e. We still like the earnings momentum and strong discount position in Sweden.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - CMD takeaways

After attending Axfood’s CMD on Friday, including a site visit to its new and 80%-automated warehouse in Bålsta, which is set to handle 60% of its volumes (at full capacity), we note the ramp-up appears to be going according to plan, with the company on track to deliver on targeted efficiency gains for Dagab (in 2024–2025e). It also reiterated its long-term financial targets and was upbeat on continued growth, especially for Willy’s.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - CMD preview

We are positive ahead of Axfood’s CMD (due at 09:00 CET on 24 November), as we expect the company to reiterate its aim of outgrowing the market in 2024, shed more light on its ongoing efficiency gains and synergies related its supply-chain initiatives, and announce an unchanged long-term margin target. We reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price, as we continue to like its strong discount position and earnings momentum.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Customers stickier for longer

Q3 adj. EBIT was slightly above expectations, as Willy’s continued to outperform peers and gain Swedish grocery market share. With Swedish real income back at 2013 levels, we expect Willy’s to continue outperforming for the rest of 2023 and into next year, given its leading price position. We reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price.

Axfood AB: 1 director

A director at Axfood AB bought 12,800 shares at 234.740SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 84/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sh...

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Estimates not updatedEstimates not updat...

We consider this a positive report, with Q3 adj. EBIT c1% above consensus and unchanged guidance. We like that Willys continued to significantly outperform the market. We expect consensus 2023–2024e adj. EBIT to come up 0–1% on the back of the report and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted. Note that the stock had been weak into the report.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK295.00) - Customer satisfaction

Solid Q2 results included Willy’s revenue outgrowing the market again and synergies in Dagab from the Bergendahl acquisition. Axfood said it has seen limited changes in customer shopping trends to date, and we expect it to outgrow the market near-term, supported by its growing customer club and increased customer satisfaction. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK295 (280) on our higher estimates.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK280.00) - Q2 beat

We consider this a positive report, with adj. EBIT 5% above consensus and unchanged guidance. Willys continued to deliver volume growth, driven by customer traffic. We expect consensus 2023 EBIT to come up c2–4% on the results and a positive share price reaction.

Northern Lights

Northern Lights

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK280.00) - Outperforming in a tough market

We are c8% below consensus on Q2e adj. EBIT, mainly due to high costs and still-fierce competition in the grocery market, partly offset by a continued strong performance from Willy’s. That said, we still find the stock attractively valued, trading below its 5-year historical average multiples. We reiterate our BUY and SEK280 target price.