A defensive gem in recovery mode

Swedish food retail market: +3% in May

XXL ASA: 3 directors

Three Directors at XXL ASA sold 40,572,464 shares at 10.000NOK. The significance rating of the trade was 89/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Swedish food retail market: +12% in April

XXL ASA (Hold, TP: NOK11.00) - Encouraging LFL growth

The Q1 results were below expectations, but we find the positive LFL growth encouraging amid challenging winter conditions and years of consecutive negative LFL growth. We have reinstated our recommendation at HOLD (NO REC) and target price at NOK11 (N/A), as the earnings trend remains subdued and near-term multiples and financial risk are high. However, this is partly offset by Frasers' NOK10 per share bid for the company.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q1 below, but back to growth

We consider this a slightly negative report for XXL, including figures below expectations despite revenue growth in a quarter with challenging winter conditions. We expect consensus 2025e EBITDA to come down 3–5% and find a slight negative share price reaction warranted.

A good setup for continuous outperformance

Q1 results in line but good quality

Swedish food retail market: +0% in March

Sweden: the land of opportunity?

Calendar headwind & boycotts

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Some early signs of recovery

XXL reported weak figures as pre-warned, but with signs of light as revenues and gross margins appear to have started to recover from low levels, supported by its strategic initiatives. We continue to find the balance sheet soft, but the NOK600m rights issue targeted for March should ease the situation somewhat.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q4 weak as warned

We consider this a weak report for XXL, including figures slightly above the pre-warned levels, but badly hit by non-recurring costs. We expect 10–20% negative revisions to consensus 2025e EBITDA and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Heading into a strong year

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Stocking up for 2025e

Q4 marked a solid end to 2024, and Axfood appeared upbeat on the outlook for 2025, as it eyes continued network expansion and productivity gains in its logistical operations. We reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price. We continue to like the earnings momentum into 2025e (16% EPS growth YOY) and that the shares are trading at a 16% discount to a historical 5-year average P/E.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Solid end to 2024

We consider this a positive report for Axfood, including Q4 adj. EBIT 3% above consensus, with the beat driven by Willy’s and Dagab along with tight cost control. We expect consensus 2025e adj. EBIT to come up c1–2% on the back of the results, and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Q4 results a touch above expectations

Q4 preview: a soft end to the year

Swedish food retail market: +3% in December

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q4 trading update and fully underwritten r...

XXL announced yesterday after close that its main shareholders have agreed on a fully underwritten rights issue and that the alternative rights issue will not be implemented. The company also provided a Q4 trading update, which implies a gross profit cNOK11m–31m below our estimate due to a lower gross margin.