Swedish food retail market: +0% in March

Sweden: the land of opportunity?

Calendar headwind & boycotts

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Some early signs of recovery

XXL reported weak figures as pre-warned, but with signs of light as revenues and gross margins appear to have started to recover from low levels, supported by its strategic initiatives. We continue to find the balance sheet soft, but the NOK600m rights issue targeted for March should ease the situation somewhat.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q4 weak as warned

We consider this a weak report for XXL, including figures slightly above the pre-warned levels, but badly hit by non-recurring costs. We expect 10–20% negative revisions to consensus 2025e EBITDA and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Heading into a strong year

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Stocking up for 2025e

Q4 marked a solid end to 2024, and Axfood appeared upbeat on the outlook for 2025, as it eyes continued network expansion and productivity gains in its logistical operations. We reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price. We continue to like the earnings momentum into 2025e (16% EPS growth YOY) and that the shares are trading at a 16% discount to a historical 5-year average P/E.

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Solid end to 2024

We consider this a positive report for Axfood, including Q4 adj. EBIT 3% above consensus, with the beat driven by Willy’s and Dagab along with tight cost control. We expect consensus 2025e adj. EBIT to come up c1–2% on the back of the results, and believe a positive share price reaction is warranted.

Q4 results a touch above expectations

Q4 preview: a soft end to the year

Swedish food retail market: +3% in December

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Q4 trading update and fully underwritten r...

XXL announced yesterday after close that its main shareholders have agreed on a fully underwritten rights issue and that the alternative rights issue will not be implemented. The company also provided a Q4 trading update, which implies a gross profit cNOK11m–31m below our estimate due to a lower gross margin.

Swedish food retail market: +5% in November

Axfood (Buy, TP: SEK300.00) - Focus on 2025 outlook

We are neutral ahead of the Q4 report, as we forecast slightly better results for its core segments, while City Gross is likely a drag near-term. We expect focus to be on the 2025 outlook, especially a firm timeline for its Dagab efficiency gains, and we continue to like the continued volume growth recovery in the industry. We reiterate our BUY and SEK300 target price.

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Frasers bids for XXL

Frasers Group has announced it intends to launch a voluntary offer for all the shares in XXL at NOK10 per share. If all offer conditions are met, the transaction is expected to close in Q1 2025, and Frasers will also consign up to NOK500m of stock to XXL.

Swedish food retail market: +5% in October

XXL ASA (No_rec, TP: NOK) - Recommendation and target price withdrawn

XXL reported weak Q3 results and announced a contemplated NOK600m fully underwritten rights issue. Given DNB Markets’ role in the contemplated rights issue, we have withdrawn our recommendation and target price.

Soft discount at a discount

Soft Q3 results

City Gross acquisition approved (corrected)