Swedish forest prices up 3% y-o-y

Swedish forest prices up 3% y-o-y

Large forest deal at EV/EBITDA 36-60x

Mixed Q3 followed by public takeover offer

Sales SEK 777m, up 10% y-o-y (est. -15% org.), adj. EBIT SEK 1m. Mixed outlook for different segments, '24e better than '23e. Public takeover offer of SEK 44.5, an 86% premium to closing price.

Public takeover bid with 86% premium

Largest owner Norvik hf (59%) offers SEK 44.5 per share. Offer constitutes an 86% premium to closing price of SEK 23.9. Second largest shareholder owns only 3.4%.

Broad exposure results in mixed bag

Bergs Timber Q3'23 results fast comment

Profitability to recover when down cycle ends

Down cycle continues; Q3e sales SEK 878m, adj. EBITDA SEK 17m. Significant estimate revisions following change of analyst. Fair value SEK 25-75, trading at 7-4x '24e-'25e EV/EBITA, 9-5x P/E.

Norway: Best ideas Q3'23

Best ideas are MOWI, ORK, STB, BRG, FRO, ELMERA, TGS, VÅR and ZAP

Bye bye Laesti

Clean EBITDA SEK 23m vs. ABGSCe SEK 22m. Wood Solutions should have better EBITDA margin in H2. Share is trading at ~5x P/E on 2024e.

Bergs Q2'23 initial thoughts

New segment boosts estimates

Q2'23 report on Tuesday, 25 July. Adding new Furniture & Components segment to estimates results in SEK 183m in '23e EBITDA.

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points up a bit from a low level. IP growth has dropped. US: The indicator points up a bit from a low level (housing starts, monetary policy, real FX). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields, real FX). Japan: The indicator is neutral (monetary policy vs hous

Executing on its value-add strategy

Knock on the door

EBITDA at SEK 6m vs. ABGSCe SEK 11m. Doors & Windows stronger, order backlog 4-6 months. Share is trading at ~8x P/E on 2024e.

Soft demand in Q1'23e

Q1'23 report on Thursday, 4 May. We expect sales to decline by 31%, clean EBIT of SEK -12m. Share is trading at ~9x P/E on 2024e.

Leading indicators for OECD industrial production

OECD: The indicator points down. US: The indicator points down (house prices, bond yields, monetary policy). EU: The indicator points down (monetary policy, bond yields). Japan: The indicator is neutral (housing starts, monetary policy).