reports
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- David Lopes
- Chris Hoare
Brazilian Telcos Solid quarter, improving shareholder remuneration; Q...
Q4 was a solid quarter for the Brazilian market, despite a small slowdown in revenue and EBITDA growth. Claro outperformed peers again from an MSR and an EBITDA growth standpoint, Vivo was the outperformer from a KPI perspective. Prepaid remained under pressure and will likely remain challenged this year. However, postpaid continued to trend well.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Vivo (Buy, TP: BRL66, +23%) Q4 24: Somewhat mixed
Rounding off the reporting season, Vivo reported a somewhat mixed set of Q4 results. Revenue came in slightly ahead of consensus expectations and EBITDA slightly beat too, helped by $386m of contingencies reversal booked in “Other”. Excluding this, EBITDA missed expectations. Group service revenue growth was in line with the previous quarters, supported by a nice performance in fixed while MSR saw a deceleration in trends.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: BRL22, +27%) New R$1bn share buyback plan approv...
TIM Brasil has approved a new share buyback plan, up to R$1bn (US$ 173m), which represents a significant uptick in overall shareholder remuneration. This is another positive development following its new medium term guidance. With a net cash position and 14% 2025 FCFE yield, the stock is a compelling Buy and represents one of our Top Picks in EM with a R$ 22 price target.
- Chris Hoare
LatAm Telcos: Outlook 2025 – Market repair continues, TIM Brasil and V...
Fundamentals continue to look pretty good to us in Latin America, with market repair continuing across wireless markets and further consolidation likely. Macro / political risk is probably the biggest issue. We upgrade TIM Brasil and Vivo to Buy. Price targets rise to BRL22 and BRL66 (from BRL19 and BRL57 ) respectively.
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: R$23, +43%) - Q3 24: In-line trends, Nubank and p...
TIM has delivered solid Q3s, with a small beat at EBITDAaL combined with lower capex intensity to support very strong OpFCF after leases (+23% y/y) this quarter. Growth trends are naturally easing through the year, which is captured within reiterated FY guidance, though is perhaps spooking the market.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
AMX(Buy, TP: $22, +34%) America Movil - Q3 24: Accelerating growth, 4...
AMX reported a good set of Q3 numbers yesterday after close. Both revenue and EBITDA beat consensus by ~4%. Service revenue growth accelerated to 5.5% in Q3 vs. 4.7% last quarter and EBITDA growth accelerated to 7.3% from 6.9% in Q2. Almost all geographies beat.
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