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Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

LatAm Telcos – TIM/Vivo to Neutral; Wireless MVNO threats - NuCel / Br...

As well as a broader regional recap, we focus on wireless MVNO threats: NuCel in Brazil, recapping also the experience of AMX in Mexico with Bait (Walmart).

America Movil, S.A.B. de C.V.: Update following rating affirmation

Our credit view of this issuer reflects its strong market position, offset by its intense competition.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

NU US (Neutral, TP: $13, -15%) Q3 24: NuCel the Telco disrupter, diver...

NU reported numbers which missed a touch at NIM on a combination of lower yields and higher funding cost. The latter continues to be driven by deposit ramp and still relatively low lending in Mexico.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

VIVT3 (Buy, TP: R$61, +15%) TIMS3 (Buy, TP: R$23, +43%) AMX (Buy, TP: ...

Rounding off the reporting season, Vivo reported solid Q3s results with a 3% beat at EBITDA and the best postpaid net adds in Brazil this quarter.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

TIM Brasil (Buy, TP: R$23, +43%) - Q3 24: In-line trends, Nubank and p...

TIM has delivered solid Q3s, with a small beat at EBITDAaL combined with lower capex intensity to support very strong OpFCF after leases (+23% y/y) this quarter. Growth trends are naturally easing through the year, which is captured within reiterated FY guidance, though is perhaps spooking the market.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

NU US (Neutral, TP: $13, -15%) TIM (BUY, TP: R$23, +44%) Vivo (BUY, TP...

Nubank’s MVNO, NuCel, launched in Brazil yesterday. We run through pricing and compare with peers, seeing the product as competitive but not particularly aggressive.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

Mexican Cable/FTTH - Q3 24: MEGA and TPLAY the strongest performers; T...

The Mexican fixed market experienced a slight slowdown in revenue and EBITDA trends in Q3 but KPIs remained robust with 423k net additions and continued growth in Broadband penetration.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

AMX(Buy, TP: $22, +34%) America Movil - Q3 24: Accelerating growth, 4...

AMX reported a good set of Q3 numbers yesterday after close. Both revenue and EBITDA beat consensus by ~4%. Service revenue growth accelerated to 5.5% in Q3 vs. 4.7% last quarter and EBITDA growth accelerated to 7.3% from 6.9% in Q2. Almost all geographies beat.

America Movil, S.A.B. de C.V.: Annual Update

Our credit view of America Movil reflects its regional presence with leading market position and strong credit metrics, offset by intense competition.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

TIMS3 (Buy, TP: BRL23, +32%) VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +26%) AMX (Buy, TP...

TIM Q2s: As with Claro and Vivo, TIM delivered a robust set of Q2 results. Both revenue and EBITDA beat consensus by ~1% though at EBITDAaL TIM outperformed with a +5% beat, supported by stable Leases compared to Q1. Service revenue maintained consistent growth in-line with previous quarters (~7% y/y) from faster postpaid, and maintained negative prepaid. H1 EBITDA (and revenue) continued to trend slightly above the FY24 guidance. Despite management’s confidence in achieving targets for the year...

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +26%) Vivo Solid Q2s – Small revenue and underl...

Vivo has reported a solid set of Q2 results with a small beat at revenue and an acceleration in both revenue and EBITDA trends.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

AMX (Buy, TP: $22, +32%) Televisa (Neutral, TP: $3.5, +58%) Megacable ...

AMX and Totalplay emerged as the strong performers in Q2, in terms of KPIs (Telmex the highest BB subs again) and financials (TPLAY 16% EBITDA y/y growth). MEGA continued good momentum, slowing perhaps a touch (and with weaker Corporate). Izzy (Televisa) continues to back off from chasing growth and focus more on FCF - helped by a cut in Cable capex (from $630m to $590m, or 22% of sales to 20%) and with deal synergies to come (MXN400m per Q).

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

AMX (Buy, TP: $22, +20%) AMX - Q2 24: EBITDA beat, trends high-end/ab...

AMX reported robust Q2 numbers after close, coming in ~3% ahead of consensus EBITDA. Revenue growth of 4.7% is toward the top of the mid-term guide, EBITDA at 6.9% is ahead. Brazil was the standout business (with Claro likely to be performing ahead of TIM and Vivo) whilst Mexico was solid (though holding price flat isn’t helping near-term revenue momentum)

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

LatAm Fintech into Q2s: FX, rates and Mexico in focus: MELI/NU/DLO/PAG...

It’s a difficult reporting season for US$ reporters when regional FX slips so much: sell-side is generally slow to update (and often updates the immediate quarter, but not FYs). We see FY 24 needing to come down at NU (Neutral) and MercadoLibre (Neutral). DLO (BUY) is also exposed though a Q2 share price collapse, significant de-rating as well as a better H2 should underpin the stock.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $13, +45%) cements Chile exit, longer road for AM...

Liberty LA announced this week that AMX will take control of their 50/50 JV in Chile. This isn’t surprising but still cements a good “exit” for Liberty LA (putting zero value on the residual 9% stake this implies a 15.5x exit on FY 23 VTR EBITDA) and requiring a long-term perspective from AMX in order to turnaround the business - though we note recent top line and KPIs look to be (finally) stabilising.

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

VIVT3 (Buy, TP: BRL61, +23%) Vivo - Solid underlying Q1s – headline E...

Underlying Q1 trends remained robust at Vivo, with revenue in-line (+7% y/y growth) and headline EBITDA missing (1.5%) only due to other items in the cost base (gains/sales) fluctuating. Excluding this and underlying EBITDA of +9% y/y was steady on Q4, and comparable to TIM’s +10% (reported yesterday). Vivo’s mobile service revenue was the strongest in Brazil vs peers, offset slightly by lower fixed growth (the more volatile data/IT business slowing this quarter).

Soomit Datta
  • Soomit Datta

AMX (Buy, TP: $24, +20%) Investor Day - Upbeat outlook, cash returns l...

America Movil held an investor event in New York today which was, in the main, pretty upbeat for mid-term revenue and EBITDA – a message given credibility by the strong momentum coming out of the Q1s.

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