Televisa has reported a mixed set of Q2 results after the close yesterday. Revenue came in slightly below consensus expectations while OSI came in roughly in line. The small revenue miss was driven by Sky which saw a further deterioration in trends this quarter. EPS beat nicely, mainly driven by TVUNI which posted a better quarter. Perhaps the highlight this quarter is the Broadband net adds which were positive (+6k).
Moody’s has downgraded Televisa’s senior unsecured ratings to Ba1 from Baa3 and assigned a Ba1 corporate family rating; the outlook remains negative. TelevisaUnivision has announced a proposed $1bn refinancing and preliminary Q2 25.
Televisa reported Q1’s after close yesterday. Revenue came in in line with consensus and our expectations while OSI slightly beat consensus and our forecasts. Broadband net adds came in slightly better than consensus but remained in negative territory.
Millicom has reported a slower set of Q4 results and both service revenue and EBITDA came in a shade below consensus expectations. However, the EFCF performance was strong, well above expectations in Q4 and the guide for 2025 EFCF of ~$750m is also above consensus (in line with us).
Televisa reported Q4’s after close. Cable revenue and OSI were broadly as expected but KPIs were weak this quarter, with broadband net adds back into negative territory. Focus remains on FCF rather than growing the base, helped by relatively low cable capex this year.
TIM Brasil has approved a new share buyback plan, up to R$1bn (US$ 173m), which represents a significant uptick in overall shareholder remuneration. This is another positive development following its new medium term guidance. With a net cash position and 14% 2025 FCFE yield, the stock is a compelling Buy and represents one of our Top Picks in EM with a R$ 22 price target.
Fundamentals continue to look pretty good to us in Latin America, with market repair continuing across wireless markets and further consolidation likely. Macro / political risk is probably the biggest issue. We upgrade TIM Brasil and Vivo to Buy. Price targets rise to BRL22 and BRL66 (from BRL19 and BRL57 ) respectively.
Millicom has announced a new , very positive , shareholder remuneration policy which includes resuming regular cash dividends, sustaining or growing cash dividend every year, and keeping a prudent capital structure. The new dividend policy is well ahead of our expectations.
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
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