reports
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
AMX(Buy, TP: $22, +34%) America Movil - Q3 24: Accelerating growth, 4...
AMX reported a good set of Q3 numbers yesterday after close. Both revenue and EBITDA beat consensus by ~4%. Service revenue growth accelerated to 5.5% in Q3 vs. 4.7% last quarter and EBITDA growth accelerated to 7.3% from 6.9% in Q2. Almost all geographies beat.
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $22, +32%) Televisa (Neutral, TP: $3.5, +58%) Megacable ...
AMX and Totalplay emerged as the strong performers in Q2, in terms of KPIs (Telmex the highest BB subs again) and financials (TPLAY 16% EBITDA y/y growth). MEGA continued good momentum, slowing perhaps a touch (and with weaker Corporate). Izzy (Televisa) continues to back off from chasing growth and focus more on FCF - helped by a cut in Cable capex (from $630m to $590m, or 22% of sales to 20%) and with deal synergies to come (MXN400m per Q).
- Soomit Datta
TV US (Neutral, TP: $3.5,) Televisa Q2 24 - Cost (and maybe capex?) t...
Televisa reported Q2’s after close. Trends were broadly as expected, with focus on FCF rather than growing the base, meaning revenue momentum slipped further (-6% y/y from -5% in Q1) on the back of limited broadband adds (in contrast to peers like AMX) as well as a video subs disconnection. Operating segment income improved a touch (still down 8% y/y) and with the prospect of DTH/cable synergies coming through from Q3.
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $22, +20%) AMX - Q2 24: EBITDA beat, trends high-end/ab...
AMX reported robust Q2 numbers after close, coming in ~3% ahead of consensus EBITDA. Revenue growth of 4.7% is toward the top of the mid-term guide, EBITDA at 6.9% is ahead. Brazil was the standout business (with Claro likely to be performing ahead of TIM and Vivo) whilst Mexico was solid (though holding price flat isn’t helping near-term revenue momentum)
- Soomit Datta
LatAm Fintech into Q2s: FX, rates and Mexico in focus: MELI/NU/DLO/PAG...
It’s a difficult reporting season for US$ reporters when regional FX slips so much: sell-side is generally slow to update (and often updates the immediate quarter, but not FYs). We see FY 24 needing to come down at NU (Neutral) and MercadoLibre (Neutral). DLO (BUY) is also exposed though a Q2 share price collapse, significant de-rating as well as a better H2 should underpin the stock.
- Soomit Datta
Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $13, +45%) cements Chile exit, longer road for AM...
Liberty LA announced this week that AMX will take control of their 50/50 JV in Chile. This isn’t surprising but still cements a good “exit” for Liberty LA (putting zero value on the residual 9% stake this implies a 15.5x exit on FY 23 VTR EBITDA) and requiring a long-term perspective from AMX in order to turnaround the business - though we note recent top line and KPIs look to be (finally) stabilising.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $24, +25%) Why a seemingly (quite) healthy Telco just f...
WOM Chile filed for Chapter 11 last month (April 1), followed a couple of weeks later by a local filing for WOM Colombia. Two filings in one month. Colombia’s relatively modest financing difficulties were likely sealed by the Chilean filing and we review events in Chile to work out how a seemingly successful scaled wireless operator (close to 25% market share of service revenue, 37% EBITDA margins) ended up here.
- Soomit Datta
AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neut...
The market continued to eek out broadband growth in Q1, with Megacable leading the charge. We applaud management’s execution here and the double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, though this now seems embedded in expectations; we think it’s time to close out Megacable stock gains (30% YTD), trading on a 5.5% EFCF yield for 2025. Our target remains MXN55, though we have taken out the probability of cable-cable deal synergies, offset by upgrades following Q1s.
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $24, +40%) AMX - Q1 24: Accelerating revenue and EBITDA...
AMX reported strong Q1 numbers after close, coming in ~2% ahead of consensus revenue and EBITDA. Growth accelerated (to 5% y/y from 3.7% in Q4) coming from Mexico and Brazil, and both fixed and wireless. Brazil EBITDA also saw strong support on the cost side. Capex was down y/y in Q1, in keeping with the FY 24 guide (~$7 billion, down from $8.8 billion in 2023); we expect mid-term capex to be provided at the upcoming May 7th Investor Day, and see potential for consensus estimates to come down he...
Moody's assigns Baa1 rating to America Movil's proposed notes; stable ...
Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has today assigned a Baa1 rating to America Movil, S.A.B. de C.V.'s ("America Movil") proposed up to MXN20,000 million ($1.1 billion) in senior unsecured global notes due 2029. America Movil's existing ratings remain unchanged. The outlook remains stable. Proceeds will be u...
- Soomit Datta
Mexican Cable/FTTH – Capex down, promotions lifting; Buy MEGA; TV/TPLA...
Following TotalPlay and Televisa results at the end of last week, and Megacable the week prior, we highlight key positive conclusions from the Mexican reporting season: 1/ Capex is coming down across the board in Mexico in FY 24 driving an uplift in OpFCF margin for all players, 2/ Lower promotional intensity through YE is helping ARPUs and would be supportive if it holds.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind star...
Megacable reported good Q4s last night with strong broadband adds, revenue growth accelerating (to 14% y/y on core cable/FTTH) and perhaps most supportively EBITDA on core returning to 12% growth on new build operational leverage; EBITDA was flat only a couple of quarters go and the guide is for margin expansion in FY 24 and beyond (ahead of us and the market).
- Soomit Datta
TV (Neutral, TP: $3.7, +17%) Televisa – Spin Co support for M&A; TVUN...
Ahead of the spin of its non-core assets next week (Feb 20th) we highlight the impact to Televisa: potentially an ex-div move of up to $0.5 per ADR (assuming SpinCo trades at 4x EBITDA, in-line with our implied valuation). Cleaning up the business would be a helpful move ahead of potential M&A (with Megacable). We also run through TVUNI (>100% of target TV equity) Q4 results yesterday, feeling the headwinds of a tough comp in the 2022 World Cup, but with a better outlook for 2024 where we think...
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Report is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.