reports
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers Introducing the NSR Global EM Telco & Tower...
In a separate note published last week we introduced the NSR GEM-Top 8. However, many of the stocks in that list are not liquid and so, given the tailwinds we now see in the Telco industry we introduce a second list – the GEM Telco & Towers Liquid Compounders; large cap, well-managed telcos in attractive markets at cheap valuations that are likely to generate market-beating returns over time. These are the best large cap investments in the Global EM Telco & Towers space we think.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
AMX(Buy, TP: $22, +34%) America Movil - Q3 24: Accelerating growth, 4...
AMX reported a good set of Q3 numbers yesterday after close. Both revenue and EBITDA beat consensus by ~4%. Service revenue growth accelerated to 5.5% in Q3 vs. 4.7% last quarter and EBITDA growth accelerated to 7.3% from 6.9% in Q2. Almost all geographies beat.
Moody's Ratings changes Televisa's outlook to negative; affirms Baa3 r...
Moody's Ratings ("Moody's") has today changed the outlook on Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. ("Televisa") to negative from stable. At the same time, we affirmed the company's Baa3 long term issuer rating, Baa3 senior unsecured ratings and (P)Baa3 senior unsecured shelf (P) ratings. The negative outlook ref...
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $22, +32%) Televisa (Neutral, TP: $3.5, +58%) Megacable ...
AMX and Totalplay emerged as the strong performers in Q2, in terms of KPIs (Telmex the highest BB subs again) and financials (TPLAY 16% EBITDA y/y growth). MEGA continued good momentum, slowing perhaps a touch (and with weaker Corporate). Izzy (Televisa) continues to back off from chasing growth and focus more on FCF - helped by a cut in Cable capex (from $630m to $590m, or 22% of sales to 20%) and with deal synergies to come (MXN400m per Q).
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $22, +20%) AMX - Q2 24: EBITDA beat, trends high-end/ab...
AMX reported robust Q2 numbers after close, coming in ~3% ahead of consensus EBITDA. Revenue growth of 4.7% is toward the top of the mid-term guide, EBITDA at 6.9% is ahead. Brazil was the standout business (with Claro likely to be performing ahead of TIM and Vivo) whilst Mexico was solid (though holding price flat isn’t helping near-term revenue momentum)
- Soomit Datta
LatAm Fintech into Q2s: FX, rates and Mexico in focus: MELI/NU/DLO/PAG...
It’s a difficult reporting season for US$ reporters when regional FX slips so much: sell-side is generally slow to update (and often updates the immediate quarter, but not FYs). We see FY 24 needing to come down at NU (Neutral) and MercadoLibre (Neutral). DLO (BUY) is also exposed though a Q2 share price collapse, significant de-rating as well as a better H2 should underpin the stock.
- Soomit Datta
Liberty LA (Buy, TP: $13, +45%) cements Chile exit, longer road for AM...
Liberty LA announced this week that AMX will take control of their 50/50 JV in Chile. This isn’t surprising but still cements a good “exit” for Liberty LA (putting zero value on the residual 9% stake this implies a 15.5x exit on FY 23 VTR EBITDA) and requiring a long-term perspective from AMX in order to turnaround the business - though we note recent top line and KPIs look to be (finally) stabilising.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $24, +25%) Why a seemingly (quite) healthy Telco just f...
WOM Chile filed for Chapter 11 last month (April 1), followed a couple of weeks later by a local filing for WOM Colombia. Two filings in one month. Colombia’s relatively modest financing difficulties were likely sealed by the Chilean filing and we review events in Chile to work out how a seemingly successful scaled wireless operator (close to 25% market share of service revenue, 37% EBITDA margins) ended up here.
- Soomit Datta
AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neut...
The market continued to eek out broadband growth in Q1, with Megacable leading the charge. We applaud management’s execution here and the double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, though this now seems embedded in expectations; we think it’s time to close out Megacable stock gains (30% YTD), trading on a 5.5% EFCF yield for 2025. Our target remains MXN55, though we have taken out the probability of cable-cable deal synergies, offset by upgrades following Q1s.
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $24, +40%) AMX - Q1 24: Accelerating revenue and EBITDA...
AMX reported strong Q1 numbers after close, coming in ~2% ahead of consensus revenue and EBITDA. Growth accelerated (to 5% y/y from 3.7% in Q4) coming from Mexico and Brazil, and both fixed and wireless. Brazil EBITDA also saw strong support on the cost side. Capex was down y/y in Q1, in keeping with the FY 24 guide (~$7 billion, down from $8.8 billion in 2023); we expect mid-term capex to be provided at the upcoming May 7th Investor Day, and see potential for consensus estimates to come down he...
Moody's downgrades Televisa's ratings to Baa3; stable outlook
Moody's Ratings ("Moody's") has today downgraded Grupo Televisa, S.A.B.'s ("Televisa") long term issuer rating and its senior unsecured ratings to Baa3 from Baa2. Moody's also downgraded Televisa's senior unsecured shelf to (P)Baa3 from (P)Baa2. The outlook remains stable. RATINGS RATIONALE The rati...
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