The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...
The share price is down sharply on all-time low freight markets and weak shipping sentiment. While we believe rates will remain depressed in 2025, we see improvements from 2026. The share price implies a 2026e P/E of ~4x, versus Flex LNG at ~8x; applying the Flex LNG multiple indicates a valuation of ~NOK100. Hence, we find the risk skewed to the upside, and reiterate our BUY and NOK120 target price.
With ~90% of days fixed for 2025 and 2026, and a cash balance of 11x its ‘regular’ quarterly dividend, Flex LNG’s USD0.75 DPS looks insulated from market storm, offering a compelling 14% yield. Additionally, we expect freight markets to recover from 2026, with current newbuild prices implying a long-term TC contract of cUSD90k/day to justify the investment, in our opinion supporting a firm long-term rate outlook. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to NOK320 (340).
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