Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK8.00) - Searching for tailwind

Komplett reported soft Q4 results, in line with consensus, in a market that continues to be challenging despite hopes of a recovery in consumer spending. We find the balance sheet weak, but the revised near-term covenant structure offers some leeway. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK8 target price, despite negative estimate revisions.

Holding steady, but momentum looms

Adj EBIT in line, outlook more positive

Adj. EBIT largely in line. More positive outlook, more headroom on covenants

CEO leaves, but somewhat positive comments on Q4

CEO to step down, but comments on Q4 encouraging, CEO will stay until Aug '25 and take role as CoB

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK8.00) - Navigating Q4 weakness, eyes on 2025

We are 17% below consensus on Q4e adj. EBIT, reflecting our expectations of limited YOY revenue growth and ongoing gross margin pressure due to market headwinds, particularly in Sweden. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK8 target price.

Reigniting growth

Live to fight another day

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK8.00) - The game of balance

The Q3 results were weak, with adj. EBIT significantly below consensus as soft consumer demand and high competition continued to hurt sales and margins. The company avoided a covenant breach, but we still believe it could breach in Q4 despite giving a somewhat more optimistic outlook on demand recovery. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK8 (8.5).

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK8.50) - Weak Q3

We consider this a weak report for Komplett with figures significantly below expectations. We expect c10% revisions to consensus 2024e EBITDA and a negative share price reaction.

Weak numbers, leverage OK

EBIT NOK -46m vs cons at -4m. B2C /B2B explains the miss. Leverage 3.9x,cove. 4.5x. Weak market, but somewhat more positive

Still pushing uphill

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK8.50) - Set for weak Q3

The short-term outlook remains muted ahead of Komplett’s Q3 results, which we expect to be below consensus, as low consumer demand and aggressive pricing remain headwinds. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK8.5 target price.

Kicked while down, but soon to rise

Weak again, but better GM and demand in H2. Recovery slower than expected, but targets not unreachable. '24 is lost, but ready when the market turns: BUY.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK8.50) - Weak Q2, saved by waiver

The Q2 results were weak, with adj. EBIT significantly below consensus on increased campaign pressure in its markets. On the positive side, revised covenants for the rest of 2024 should offer some relief, and the company gave a cautiously optimistic outlook for H2. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK8.5 (9.5) on reduced estimates.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK9.50) - Weak Q2 and revised covenants

We consider this a weak report for Komplett, with figures below expectations. However, NIBD was lower than forecast and the covenant structure has been revised. We expect consensus 2024e adj. EBIT down 10–20% and expect a negative share price reaction.

Weak numbers; more flexible covenants

Fight continues

Weak Q2, but we are in line with consensus. BS/liquidity stretched but manageable, in our view. Slower recovery, but ready when the market turns: BUY.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK9.50) - Competition intensifies

Komplett (KOMPL NO, Hold) - Competition intensifies (27 pages)

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Challenging market set to persist

The Q1 report was weak, as revenues were badly hit by a challenging market, which looks set to persist near-term. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to NOK10 (12) on negative estimate revisions. At our new target price, the stock would be trading at a 2026e P/E of c5x, which we find to be warranted given the subdued market outlook and weak balance sheet.

A test of patience

Weak Q1: Sales down 10% y-o-y and soft CF. GM positive. BS/liquidity set to strengthen on cost cuts, WC and seasonality. Slower recovery, but ready when the market turns. BUY.