Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Challenging market set to persist

The Q1 report was weak, as revenues were badly hit by a challenging market, which looks set to persist near-term. We reiterate our HOLD and have cut our target price to NOK10 (12) on negative estimate revisions. At our new target price, the stock would be trading at a 2026e P/E of c5x, which we find to be warranted given the subdued market outlook and weak balance sheet.

A test of patience

Weak Q1: Sales down 10% y-o-y and soft CF. GM positive. BS/liquidity set to strengthen on cost cuts, WC and seasonality. Slower recovery, but ready when the market turns. BUY.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK12.00) - Weak Q1 and cautious outlook

We consider this a weak report for Komplett, including figures below expectations and a cautious outlook for Q2. We expect c10% negative revisions to consensus 2024e adj. EBIT and expect a negative share price reaction.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK12.00) - Short term pain, long-term gain

We are cautious ahead of the Q1 results (due at 07:00 CET on 24 April), forecasting adj. EBIT well below consensus on lower revenues and margins, as we expect the near-term weak market conditions to overshadow the long-term strategic initiatives to increase profitability. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) and cut our target price to NOK12 (14) on our reduced estimates.

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK14.00) - Roadmap to restore profitability

Komplett’s 2026–2028 financial targets were above consensus, with most of the improvement expected from strategic initiatives. While the market looks to remain challenging near-term, we forecast margin expansion going forward, helped by sourcing synergies, positive mix effects and operating leverage. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK14 (10), reflecting positive estimate revisions.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Still no signs of market recovery

The Q4 report was weak, with figures significantly below expectations and a cautious near-term outlook. We have downgraded the stock to HOLD and cut our target price to NOK10 (12) on negative estimate revisions. We see the CMD scheduled for 29 February as key to creating a credible roadmap for revenue growth and increased profitability.

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK12.00) - Weak report and cautious outlook

We consider this a negative report, including figures below expectations and a still-cautious outlook. We expect a 5–10% negative revision to consensus 2024e adj. EBIT and believe a negative share price reaction is warranted.

Komplett (Buy, TP: NOK12.00) - At a turning point

Komplett has outgrown the market so far in 2023, and we do not expect this to change in Q4. Although we continue to find the balance sheet weak, the improved financial performance reduces the downside risk, and we expect the upcoming CMD in February to highlight and provide a roadmap to realising its potential. We have upgraded the stock to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to NOK12 (7.4), reflecting positive estimate revisions.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK7.40) - Tough markets, but margins holding

The Q3 results were broadly in line with our expectations, reflecting a solid relative performance, with an improved gross margin YOY in a challenging market. We acknowledge that Komplett looks to have good momentum in its strategic initiatives, but continue to view the balance sheet as soft, leaving no margin for error. We reiterate our HOLD, but have cut our target price to NOK7.4 (10).

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Q3 EBIT slightly above consensus

We consider this a slightly positive report for Komplett, with adj. EBIT above consensus, but slightly below our forecast, and a cautious near-term outlook. We expect consensus 2023e adj. EBIT to come up 5–10%, and a neutral to slightly positive share price reaction.

Northern Lights

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK10.00) - Still lukewarm despite stronger Q3e

Komplett is set to report its Q3 results at 07:00 CET on 26 October. Although we expect slightly improved revenue and gross margin trends, we remain lukewarm, as we still find the market outlook subdued and the financial risk high. We reiterate our HOLD but have lowered our target price to NOK10 (12.5) following negative estimate revisions.

Northern Lights

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK12.50) - Not out of the woods yet

The Q2 results were broadly in line with expectations, with no material change to the outlook. We find the strong recovery in sales in Norway and gross margin encouraging, but are still concerned about a weak balance sheet leaving limited margin for error. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK12.5 (14) based on slight estimate cuts.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK14.00) - Q2 broadly in line

We consider this a neutral report for Komplett, including figures broadly in line with expectations, reduced debt, and no material change in outlook. We expect 1% negative revisions to consensus 2023e adj. EBIT and forecast a neutral share price reaction.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK14.00) - New waiver may be needed

We remain on the sidelines ahead of the Q2 results (due at 07:00 CET on 20 July), expecting earnings below consensus and a continued challenging market outlook. Furthermore, we believe a new covenant waiver could be needed. We reiterate our HOLD, but have lowered our target price to NOK14 (18) on negative estimate revisions.

Northern Lights

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK18.00) - Mixed Q1

Komplett reported a mixed Q1 as a greater than expected recovery in gross margins was offset by higher costs. Although the market outlook remains subdued, we find the gross margin recovery driven by a healthier inventory position encouraging. We reiterate our HOLD but have raised our target price to NOK18 (17.0) on a slightly improved outlook.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK17.00) - Soft Q1, but gross margins above

We consider this a slightly negative report for Komplett, including figures below expectations, but with a positive gross margin recovery and no change to the outlook. We expect 1–3% negative revisions to consensus 2023e adj. EBIT and a corresponding share price reaction.

Komplett (Hold, TP: NOK17.00) - Gross margins turning

We expect Komplett to report a weak Q1, reflecting a still-challenging market and cautious outlook comments. We believe a key focus in the report to be on the new management team’s perspective on the crystallisation of the targeted cNOK200m of synergies and the balance sheet, as Komplett is close to breaching NIBD to EBITDA covenants. We have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) as the stock is trading at our NOK17 target price.