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ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
PREMIUM
ATRLJ.B-SE Atrium Ljungber...
CAST-SE CASTELLUM ... (+21)

Sweden is set for a comeback

Swedish economy set to outperform in 2025, with buoyant conditions for real estate. Tables have turned since January – more BUYs than SELLs.

ATRLJ.B-SE ATRIUM LJUNGBERG
CAST-SE CASTELLUM
CATE-SE CATENA
DIOS-SE DIöS FASTIGHETER
FABG-SE FABEGE
HUFV.A-SE HUFVUDSTADEN
K2A.B-SE K2A KNAUST & ANDERSSON FASTIGHETER
KLARA.B-SE KLARABO
NYF-SE NYFOSA
PNDX.B-SE PANDOX
PLAZ.B-SE PLATZER FASTIGHETER
SBB.B-SE SBB
WALL.B-SE WALLENSTAM
WIHL-SE WIHLBORGS
BALD.B-SE BALDER
CAT.B-SE CATELLA
CIBUS-SE CIBUS NORDIC REAL ESTATE
SAGA.B-SE AB SAGAX
NP3-SE NP3 FASTIGHETER
LOGI.B-SE LOGISTEA AB
SLP.B-SE SWEDISH LOGISTIC PROPERTY AB
04/05/24 April 5, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
CAT.B-SE CATELLA

Muted market remains

Challenging market in Q4. EBIT estimates cut by 5-10% for 2024-25e. 2024e EV/EBIT of 5x with 4-5% dividend yield.

02/15/24 February 15, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
02/09/24 February 9, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
PREMIUM
ATRLJ.B-SE Atrium Ljungber...
CAST-SE CASTELLUM ... (+19)

Saved by the bell – now what?

Lower risks of both rights issues and covenant breaches more than reflected after the recent rally. P/CEPS of ~18x with limited earnings growth; four downgrades.

ATRLJ.B-SE ATRIUM LJUNGBERG
CAST-SE CASTELLUM
CATE-SE CATENA
DIOS-SE DIöS FASTIGHETER
FABG-SE FABEGE
HUFV.A-SE HUFVUDSTADEN
K2A.B-SE K2A KNAUST & ANDERSSON FASTIGHETER
KLARA.B-SE KLARABO
NYF-SE NYFOSA
PNDX.B-SE PANDOX
PLAZ.B-SE PLATZER FASTIGHETER
SBB.B-SE SBB
WALL.B-SE WALLENSTAM
WIHL-SE WIHLBORGS
BALD.B-SE BALDER
CAT.B-SE CATELLA
CIBUS-SE CIBUS NORDIC REAL ESTATE
SAGA.B-SE AB SAGAX
NP3-SE NP3 FASTIGHETER
01/19/24 January 19, 2024 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
CAT.B-SE CATELLA

Challenging market remaining

Challenging market environment remains. EBIT estimates up for 2024e but down for 2025e. 2024e EV/EBIT of 4x.

11/02/23 November 2, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
10/27/23 October 27, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+4)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
  • Viktor Stenlöf
PREMIUM
ATRLJ.B-SE Atrium Ljungber...
CAST-SE CASTELLUM ... (+15)

Sector bounce despite softer fundamentals

Early signs of an easing bond market, depth is uncertain. Property values are coming down more than previously expected.Shares up, estimates down, two downgrades.

ATRLJ.B-SE ATRIUM LJUNGBERG
CAST-SE CASTELLUM
CATE-SE CATENA
FABG-SE FABEGE
HUFV.A-SE HUFVUDSTADEN
K2A.B-SE K2A KNAUST & ANDERSSON FASTIGHETER
KLARA.B-SE KLARABO
NYF-SE NYFOSA
PNDX.B-SE PANDOX
PLAZ.B-SE PLATZER FASTIGHETER
SBB.B-SE SBB
WALL.B-SE WALLENSTAM
WIHL-SE WIHLBORGS
BALD.B-SE BALDER
CAT.B-SE CATELLA
09/29/23 September 29, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
CAT.B-SE CATELLA

Solid progress in a slow transaction market

Strong AUM growth despite tough market. EBIT cut for 2023e-'24e on persistent weak activity. 2024e EV/EBIT of 6x with 4-9% dividend yield.

08/24/23 August 24, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
08/18/23 August 18, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
CAT.B-SE CATELLA

Market activity remains muted

Tough comps coming up, Q2e helped by performance fees. EPS cut by 7% for '23e driven by lower corporate finance revenues. 2023e EV/EBIT of 6x with 4-9% dividend yield in 2023e-25e.

08/14/23 August 14, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
07/24/23 July 24, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
PREMIUM
ATRLJ.B-SE Atrium Ljungber...
CAST-SE CASTELLUM ... (+15)

Swedish real estate: Vacancies on the rise

Operational risks and metrics coming into vogue. Stay away from low property yields and Stockholm offices. Catena (BUY) is our top pick, Pandox up to BUY (Hold).

ATRLJ.B-SE ATRIUM LJUNGBERG
CAST-SE CASTELLUM
CATE-SE CATENA
FABG-SE FABEGE
HUFV.A-SE HUFVUDSTADEN
K2A.B-SE K2A KNAUST & ANDERSSON FASTIGHETER
KLARA.B-SE KLARABO
NYF-SE NYFOSA
PNDX.B-SE PANDOX
PLAZ.B-SE PLATZER FASTIGHETER
SBB.B-SE SBB
WALL.B-SE WALLENSTAM
WIHL-SE WIHLBORGS
BALD.B-SE BALDER
CAT.B-SE CATELLA
06/26/23 June 26, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
06/05/23 June 5, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
CAT.B-SE CATELLA

Muted transaction environment a short-term burden

Catella delivered a Q1 report on the weak side, with both sales and EBIT coming in below ABGSC expectations, primarily driven by Corporate Finance and the Investment Manangement segment.

05/12/23 May 12, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
05/05/23 May 5, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Financials Research ... (+2)
  • ABGSC Financials Research
  • Patrik Brattelius
CAT.B-SE CATELLA

A soft start to 2023e

Expect a slow start to Q1’23e, adj. EBIT of SEK 69m (110m). Minor estimate revisions ahead of Q1'23e. 2023e EV/EBIT of 5x with 5-8% dividend yield.

05/02/23 May 2, 2023 1 EN
ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Construct. & Real Estate Research
  • Fredrik Stensved
  • Markus Henriksson
PREMIUM
ATRLJ.B-SE Atrium Ljungber...
CAST-SE CASTELLUM ... (+15)

A second bite at the cherry

Refinancing fears and rights issues, shares -10% YTD. Low property yields not sustainable in current environment. First to bounce: High yields, decent LTV & bank financing.

ATRLJ.B-SE ATRIUM LJUNGBERG
CAST-SE CASTELLUM
CATE-SE CATENA
FABG-SE FABEGE
HUFV.A-SE HUFVUDSTADEN
K2A.B-SE K2A KNAUST & ANDERSSON FASTIGHETER
KLARA.B-SE KLARABO
NYF-SE NYFOSA
PNDX.B-SE PANDOX
PLAZ.B-SE PLATZER FASTIGHETER
SBB.B-SE SBB
WALL.B-SE WALLENSTAM
WIHL-SE WIHLBORGS
BALD.B-SE BALDER
CAT.B-SE CATELLA
03/30/23 March 30, 2023 1 EN
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