Should be no drama over seasonally small Q1

Q1 is a small quarter; we estimate SEK -9m in adj. EBIT. Small, mostly FX-driven revisions. Kingspan got only +4.8pp of shares in the bid (ended 27 March).

The bid story continues, Board not satisfied

Board recommends shareholders to reject bid. Q4 better than it looked at first glance. 13x '24e EV/EBIT, 8% FCF yield for '24e-'25e.

Board recommends to reject Kingspan bid

Most of the volume decline is likely behind us

Q4 report due on Tuesday 6 February. No major est. changes, bid still in focus. 12x '24e EV/EBIT, 7-8% '23e-'25e FCF yield.

Decent Q3, bid situation remains the focus

Q3 mostly in line, but more volume decline to come. EBIT down 3% for '23e-'25e, mainly on lower volumes. Bid situation overshadows operational performance.

Bid situation overshadows Q3 numbers

Price tailwind to wear off in H2, still neg. volume. EBIT -5% on softer margin estimates- Share trading above incoming SEK 160/sh bid.

Kingspan to place SEK 160/sh bid

Delivering on promises without any fuss

Q2 in line with prior mgmt. outlook statements. Only change to ests. is updated FX, -1% on EBIT. 11x '23e EV/EBIT on bottom-of-cycle earnings.

In line on org growth and EBIT

Difficult Q2 comps will get easier in H2e

Q2 report due on Thursday 20 July. Difficult Q2 comps will get easier in H2e. 11x '23e EV/EBITA on bottom-of-cycle earnings.

Slow start to '23, but Q1 is a small quarter

Q1 numbers softer, but it's a small quarter. We push our market recovery assumptions back. 11x '23e EV/EBIT (adj.), overhanging bid speculations.

Slightly soft Q1, but no big impact on FY'23

Weathering the storm

We expect a particularly soft Q1 this year on volatile weather, lower volumes, and fading price hikes.