Improvement expected after Q1's perfect storm

While the top-line held up in line with our expectations in Q1, adj. EBITA was 16% below our estimate at a margin of 5.5% (Q1'23 6.0%, ABGSCe 6.6%).

Q1 weaker than feared

Solid earnings growth after Q1e

Q1e to mark low point amid organic decline, but we expect solid earnings development in subsequent quarters. Low valuation and in good shape for eventual market recovery.

Acquisition momentum continues

We are optimistic about 2024

Still high uncertainty, but Elanders is making improvements and earnings should benefit from improved demand. 10x adj. EBITA after -40% one-year total return.

Q4: Better sales, but weaker margin than expected

Kammac drives estimate increases

Organic sales decline again but strong margin and FCF development. In good shape for eventual market recovery.

Proven ability to navigate through tougher markets

High-potential acquisition

In good shape for eventual demand recovery

Markedly softer demand, but margins are improving. We lower adj. EBITA by 7-8%. 10x adj. EBITA after -40% total return YTD.

Q3 EBITA miss amid weak demand

Margins should improve despite softer demand

We expect Elanders to report Q3 net sales of SEK 3,744m, -6% y-o-y (-13% organic, +7% FX, 0% M&A), anticipating relatively larger organic declines in the Electronics and Industrials segments.

Demand clearly slowing, but it's raining cash

Adj. EBITA down 5% on lower top-line estimates. Cash flow remains strong despite softer earnings. '23e-'25e cumulative lease adj. FCF yield of ~60%.

9% lower on adj. EBITA, driven by top-line

Electronics struggling, F&LS holding up

Q2 report due on Wednesday, 12 July. Demand likely slowing, mainly in Electronics. 10x EV/EBITA (adj.) after share -24% L90D.

High financial costs leave a sour taste

Q1 in line with prel. figures, no surprise. Marginally lower adj. EBITA, but higher net financials. Divesting Atlanta Print business might be an option.

Prel. Q1 adj. EBITA 6% below ABGSCe

Q1 comps looking beatable

Margin expansion in Q1e against easy comps. Slight estimate revisions, '23e-'25e EBITA +1%. '23e the 'cash flow year', lease adj. FCF yield at 17%.