Geopolitical risk has resurfaced, but the nearterm impact on European listed real estate remains contained. Rising energydriven inflation and rates are driving greater dispersion and sharpening the focus on balancesheet quality, while MIPIM 2026 highlighted a pragmatic investor approach. In this report, we adjust target prices and refresh our top picks, removing CTP and adding Irish Residential REIT. Geopolitics and energy: duration matters more than headlines
We believe that the cautious outlook at the results on 26/2 is related to new developments from the LNS acquisitions that are added to the All-Store income at low initial Occupancy and YoC%. Shurgard now expects the EPRA EPS growth to average between 6-8% over FY27-30 (10% KBCSe). Shurgard continues its UK expansion with the completion of 5 developments (LnS pipeline) and 1 from its original pipeline in FY26. These completions have an impact on its short term all-store metrics as new developmen...
The tariff war between US and China has eased, but with the Iran conflict and an erratic Trump, uncertainty will continue into 2027. Energy prices have gone ballistic, with gas prices doubling in Europe and has hit the cyclical stocks hard. The highly anticipated AI productivity gains also will have to transpire sooner or later or a US market correction becomes unavoidable. While the macro-economic impact has been limited so far, a prolonged uncertain situation will result in economic damage. We...
Shurgard FY25 EPRA net came ahead of our estimates at €173.1m versus €168.6m expected. The NTA per share rose an impressive 10% year-on-year to €53.30, driven by €519.5m fair-value gains in the portfolio. These gains are largely attributed to operational improvements rather than cap-rate compression. The FY25 same-store operating revenue grew 3.2%, a strong performance that indicates the organic growth remains on track. The EPRA EPS outlook for FY26 gives a range of €1.70 to €1.81 vs. €1.80 expe...
After today's changes (ASMi out, UCB in), we maintain a balanced approach in our Dynamic Top Pick List, with a particular emphasis on value stocks that have been overlooked. Our defensive holdings are overweight, including real estate, which stands to benefit from lower interest rates. We remove ASMi from our Dynamic Top Pick List as the recent share price performance has driven the valuation meaningfully ahead of fundamentals. Since early December, FY27 diluted EPS expectations have risen by a...
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