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ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Rebound in H2'23e likely to be back-end loaded

Overstocked clients to hamper recovery in H2'23e. 25% q-o-q order booking decline. '23e-'25e adj. EBIT down 27-3%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Customer destocking signals are appearing

Retailers' underlying operations still weak, but destocking is coming. '23e-'25e EBIT down 6-5%.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Rebound in H2'23 looks likely

Despite overstocked clients, demand is holding up, suggesting that a rebound in H2'23 is still likely.

ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski
ABGSC Retail Research ... (+3)
  • ABGSC Retail Research
  • Benjamin Wahlstedt
  • Nikola Kalanoski

Still awaiting customer destocking

We see no indication of a consumer rebound yet. Our 2023 EBIT is down 5%, with '24e-'25e unchanged. 8.4x '23e EV/EBIT.

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