Another abrupt change

The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...

TSMC & ASML signals, Auto semi recovery, and more. The Tech Weekly Wra...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 14 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1050.00) - Solid Q1 despite tough landscape

We view the balance of 2025 as highly uncertain given tariffs and the demand outlook, but view Autoliv’s solid Q1 and reiterated 2025 guidance as signs of confidence from the company. We believe Autoliv will have to carry at least some of the tariff costs (management says all will be passed on), and thus remain below the 10–10.5% EBIT margin guidance (we estimate 9.9%). We reiterate our BUY, as we see almost 40% EPS growth in 2024–2026e. We have raised our 2025e adj. EBIT by 6%, but cut our targ...

Stolt-Nielsen Limited: 1 director

A director at Stolt-Nielsen Limited bought 5,000 shares at 222.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 60/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years...

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK470.00) - Don’t stop believin’

While lower chemical volumes weighed on Stolt-Nielsen’s earnings and Q2 guidance, we see a positive trend in the early innings, with chemical volumes up 10% MOM in March and accelerated unwinding of OPEC+ cuts, to potentially re-ignite more positive tanker sentiment. We find the stock attractive at a 2025–2026e average P/E of 3.8x (tanker peers: 5.1x). We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK470 (480).

Small Q1 miss, partly countered by share buybacks

Chemical tanker spot rates are rebounding

Stolt-Nielsen (Buy, TP: NOK480.00) - Attractive Tankers-driven cocktai...

Tanker rates are healthy, and the outlook is solid on a record-high tanker fleet age and limited 2025e deliveries. We believe Stolt-Nielsen screens as attractive, trading at an average 2025–2026e adj. P/E of 4.3x (tanker peers 5.5x), despite other segments with more stable revenues accounting for c40% of our 2026e EBIT, which should allow for a premium, in our view. We reiterate our BUY, but have cut our target price to NOK480 (540).

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1135.00) - Still favoured in the sector

We expect the 2025 adj. EBIT margin guidance of 10–10.5% announced pre-tariffs to be reduced (we forecast 9.6%). For Q1, we estimate organic sales up 1.7% YOY (consensus -2.1%) and are 2% below consensus on adj. EBIT (we forecast an adj. EBIT margin of 7.6% versus consensus of 8.0%). We expect EBIT to grow by c40% until 2027e, and the valuation is c20% below the historical average on NTM P/E, with capacity for further share buybacks. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to SEK...

‘The times they are a-changin’

The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...

Set for spicy growth

Our recent field trip to India (visiting Volvo, Epiroc, Trelleborg, Autoliv and others) alongside our analysis suggests the country is set to take centre stage as a global manufacturing hub over the coming decade, shifting from being the sixth- to the third-largest end-market for the Swedish Industrial sector. India’s strong economic growth trajectory and favourable demographics mean the companies: 1) see double-digit growth as sustainable; 2) are pursuing manufacturing capacity expansions; and ...