Guidance looks low and consensus high

2024e forecasts unchanged, '25e-'26e up by 1-2%. Q1 was a good start to a busy year. HOLD, TP of DKK 1,000.

Electrolux AB: 1 director

A director at Electrolux AB sold 24,516 shares at 96.780SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 50/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 30/04/2024 Date Performance dep...

L’offre de BHP sur Anglo American a confirmé l’intérêt des minières pour le cuivre dans un contexte de tensions croissantes sur la production et de difficultés à faire aboutir les projets. Les perspectives d’Anglo (Neutre) dans le cuivre sont désormais mieux valorisées, c’est aussi le cas de BHP (Neutre vs Sous-performance) mais pas encore assez, selon nous, sur Rio Tinto (Surperformance vs Neutre). En aval, Nexans et Montana Aerospace sont nos valeurs préférées (Surperformance) vs Au...

ODDO BHF Small & MIDCAP MORNING NEWS - 04/30/2024

BHP's bid for Anglo American has confirmed interest from miners in copper in the context of increasingly challenged production and difficulties in fully completing projects. Anglo’s (Neutral) prospects in copper are now better valued and this is also the case for BHP (Neutral vs Underperform) although not so for Rio Tinto (Outperform vs Neutral). Downstream, Nexans and Montana Aerospace are our Top Picks (Outperform) vs Aurubis, Rexel and Prysmian (Neutral). - ...

Growth slightly ahead but lack of upgrade likely to disappoint

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : Début d’année plus difficile que prévu

>Résultats inférieurs aux attentes mais guidance confirmée - Nokian Tyres a publié des résultats T1 2024 nettement inférieurs à nos attentes et celles du consensus avec un CA seulement stable à 237 M€ (consensus 265 M€) et un EBIT ajusté de -15 M€ (consensus +4 M€, ODDO BHF -3 M€), notamment pénalisé par des facteurs externes (grèves en Finlande, impacts Mer Rouge) qui ont davantage impacté sa production que ce que nous anticipions (impact CA de ~25 M€ au T1) et qui ...

Nokian Renkaat Oyj : A tougher start to the year than expected

>Earnings short of estimates but guidance confirmed - Nokian Tyres reported Q1 2024 earnings far below our estimates and those of the consensus with sales merely stable at € 237m (consensus € 265m and adjusted EBIT of -€ 15m (consensus +€ 4m, ODDO BHF -€ 3m), notably penalised by external factors (strikes in Finland, disruptions in the Red Sea) which have hit the group’s production harder than we expected (sales impact of ~€ 25m in Q1), and which should continue to af...

Nokian Tyres (Hold, TP: EUR9.00) - Soft Q1, with or without setbacks

The Q1 results were below our expectations, even after adjusting for the negatives on the group profit from the political strikes in Finland and the Red Sea conflict. On a positive note, the PCT price/mix was guided to hold up well, partly offsetting our revised lower sales expectations, while the Romanian factory appears to be ramping up on schedule. We reiterate our HOLD but have cut our target price to EUR9.0 (9.5), after lowering our 2024–2026e clean EBIT by c6% on average.

Essity Aktiebolag (publ): 1 director

A director at Essity Aktiebolag (publ) bought 12,008 shares at 273.140SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 82/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two y...

Autoliv (Buy, TP: SEK1600.00) - In the fast lane

Despite beating guidance in Q1, Autoliv kept its 2024 guidance intact. In our view, this adds upside potential to consensus for 2024 and some credibility to the 12% medium-term EBIT margin target. Although we estimate 29% YOY growth in 2024e adj. EBIT, fundamentals are likely to be on the sidelines as we expect the company to resume its large share buyback programme in the coming weeks (the mandate has USD873m, c9% of the market cap, left for 2024). We reiterate our BUY and have raised our targe...

Electrolux (Hold, TP: SEK98.00) - Next chapter

The outlook remains weak and we now expect Electrolux to be loss-making in 2024. However, CEO Jonas Samuelson’s resignation opens up for large-scale restructuring, which we deem necessary to move the EBIT margin closer to its ≥6% target and reduce the all-time high net debt. We have raised our sales and earnings estimates and cut our net debt assumptions after 2026, as we believe a new CEO could improve the sales, earnings and leverage trajectory over time. We have therefore upgraded to HOLD (SE...

Just a delay

NMP 3% below, weak outlook and cost-cut delays. Buying the remainder of Finn at a ~28% discount to our SOTP. Still solid value support: SOTP NOK 350/sh. BUY, TP NOK 350 (355).

Schibsted (Hold, TP: NOK320.00) - Whetting the blade

Schibsted delivered a weak Q1 report, including figures below expectations adjusted for News Media due to higher costs YOY and the withdrawal of the 2024 guidance for Nordic Marketplaces. We reiterate our HOLD and NOK320 target price, with negative estimate revisions offset by peer group multiples expansion.

Schibsted ASA: 1 director

A director at Schibsted ASA sold 1,650 shares at 319.300NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

Weekly news, topics & discussion

This week, Equinor, Aker BP and Vår Energi released their Q1 results. In short: Equinor reported on the strong side, with a solid FCF beat fuelled by a working capital tailwind. Aker BP had a solid Q1 all around, while there was limited new news on Johan Sverdrup. For Vår Energi, with the results in line with our expectations, we believe investor focus remains on the Jotun FPSO sail-away.

Q1 reporting season kicks off

Q1 reporting season kicked off this week, with results from Nyfosa, Entra, Wallenstam, Fabege, KMC Properties, Pandox, and Catena. In other news, Public Property Invest is to be listed on the Oslo stock exchange on 29 April. The weighted-average implied EBITDA yields on the stocks we cover are 4.75% for 2024e and 5.04% for 2025e.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/26/2024

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ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 26/04/2024

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